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Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

fortune.com

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Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#71

Post by joenot443 »

hotpotamus wrote: post #63
joenot443 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What conflict are you thinking of exactly when you reference F-35s being "mostly used to destroy low income housing of government undesirables"? I have no doubt the US military using fighter jets to mow down their own civilians would be well reported, so I'm sure there are lots of sources for the incident you're referencing. Please be as specific as possible, I'd be surprised if you'd be ignorant enough to make such…

Where did I say anything about "their own civilians"?

So what are you referring to then? No need to be evasive - just point out the conflict you had in mind. Like I said, it'd be ignorant to make the suggestion without some kind of example, so I'm giving you the floor for an explanation. Remember, your statement was that F-35s are mostly used for mowing down the housing of undesirables, all you need to do is explain where you got that idea from.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#72

Post by hackeraccount »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #17
spokeonawheel wrote: post #6

crazy idea: us govt scoops up all the office real estate at the crash and converts to low income housing for free. Solve two crisis at once, the obviously coming real estate crisis and the homeless crisis. All for the cost of a handful of F35s If only politicians had an iota of strategy.

it is really easy to make boatloads of money as a government if you get off your ass and actually play the game. Step 1 -aquire land and property Step 2 - Build mass transit / metro and invest in the area, proterty price goes up 3x Step 3 - Rent out, or sell If some one refuses to sell land ar step 1, buld transit where you actually do buy land

This assumes Governments want to make boatloads of money. Why would they?

Governments want to help their friends and hurt their enemies. Doing this almost never involves making money - sometimes and only sometimes it involves helping their friends make money.

In your example step 1 and 2 are fine but 3 is awkward. Selling or renting things doesn't make anyone happy. It's better to just give it away - there's no profit to be made but again - the point isn't profit.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#73

Post by m0llusk »

jdross wrote: post #20
spokeonawheel wrote: post #6

crazy idea: us govt scoops up all the office real estate at the crash and converts to low income housing for free. Solve two crisis at once, the obviously coming real estate crisis and the homeless crisis. All for the cost of a handful of F35s If only politicians had an iota of strategy.

Cheaper to tear down commercial RE and rebuild multi-family than to attempt a conversion. Floor plates made of high tension steel can’t be broken up for replumbing, usually you’ll want or need elevators & interior courtyards needed for lighting. There are very different water & electrical requirements Maybe there’s a creative way to do low-income housing meaning only a window or two in the whole unit, no individual H…

There are important exceptions to this. Old industrial era commercial buildings often have large spaces and big windows that make them relatively easy to convert. This is why lofts as a form make sense while also being desirable. Much of the cost of converted units comes from the high cost of acquiring the property, but that is less of a problem if the properties lose their value or are possessed by the government. And it is worth remembering that all properties are depreciating assets that get rebuilt or refurbished every 15-45 years or so on average anyway.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#74

Post by m0llusk »

joenot443 wrote: post #61
hotpotamus wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never really thought about the tradeoffs, but given that the F-35 is mostly used to destroy low income housing of government undesirables, I suppose there is some tension there.

What conflict are you thinking of exactly when you reference F-35s being "mostly used to destroy low income housing of government undesirables"? I have no doubt the US military using fighter jets to mow down their own civilians would be well reported, so I'm sure there are lots of sources for the incident you're referencing. Please be as specific as possible, I'd be surprised if you'd be ignorant enough to make such…

Strictly speaking it is true that the F-35 is an air superiority fighter. At a more general level it is only a component of a larger war machine. Air superiority is typically asserted as part of a planned force projection. Civilian mobility and assets are commonly lost during military operations. None of this has much application to urban land use policy either way.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#75

Post by [deleted] »

eganist wrote: post #15
spokeonawheel wrote: post #6

crazy idea: us govt scoops up all the office real estate at the crash and converts to low income housing for free. Solve two crisis at once, the obviously coming real estate crisis and the homeless crisis. All for the cost of a handful of F35s If only politicians had an iota of strategy.

Code requirements for housing are far more strict. One of the reasons you don't regularly see office building conversions is because homes require things like windows for each bedroom or at least one bathroom per home. While the bathrooms can be fixed with effort, windows mean a lot of office spaces would have empty cores as only the square footage near the outer edge of the building would be used. (This isn't my are…

[deleted]

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#76

Post by dmbche »

endisneigh wrote: post #57
ClumsyPilot wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You complaint makes no sence - this is an oportunity to make bank. its not an expense

Please do tell how this makes money, and why many are not jumping at this opportunity

It's only an opportunity for government as zoning/regulations have to be adjusted for this situation.

If that happens, and it's made reasonable to convert offices into housing, pretty easy to make money from that.

(Edit: by renting/selling the housing - if that wasn't clear yet)

What are we gonna do with the offices anyway? Keep em empty for old times sake?

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#77

Post by quags »

xbmcuser wrote: post #5

Current market prices for a lot of commercial real estate seems to be a ponzi scheme especially in the US. It is not in the interest of any of the players to decrease prices only the renters. Local government need higher prices as without the high property prices their property tax receipt will tank making them unable to meet their budgets. Banks need higher prices as they are highly leveraged and will be on the hook…

Property taxes won’t change if these values collapse. A city may reassess values in the future but that just means some people go up and some go down with the final receipts the same.

An owner may walk away from a Mortage and the bank will pay the taxes. If taxes are not paid you move into tax liens that trade and may be able to get the property just for the taxes on it. In the end property taxes get paid.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#78

Post by hotpotamus »

joenot443 wrote: post #71
hotpotamus wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did I say anything about "their own civilians"?

So what are you referring to then? No need to be evasive - just point out the conflict you had in mind. Like I said, it'd be ignorant to make the suggestion without some kind of example, so I'm giving you the floor for an explanation. Remember, your statement was that F-35s are mostly used for mowing down the housing of undesirables, all you need to do is explain where you got that idea from.

I'm referring to the experience of a lifetime - they load these things with bombs, but the examples of them falling on those with high-income individuals is vanishingly rare. To be honest, I wasn't referring to the F-35 all that specifically, it just seems to happen when you give governments bombs and planes; they aren't about to let them sit idle.

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#79

Post by hotpotamus »

m0llusk wrote: post #74
joenot443 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What conflict are you thinking of exactly when you reference F-35s being "mostly used to destroy low income housing of government undesirables"? I have no doubt the US military using fighter jets to mow down their own civilians would be well reported, so I'm sure there are lots of sources for the incident you're referencing. Please be as specific as possible, I'd be surprised if you'd be ignorant enough to make such…

Strictly speaking it is true that the F-35 is an air superiority fighter. At a more general level it is only a component of a larger war machine. Air superiority is typically asserted as part of a planned force projection. Civilian mobility and assets are commonly lost during military operations. None of this has much application to urban land use policy either way.

> Strictly speaking it is true that the F-35 is an air superiority fighter.

I wonder, does it have more kills in the air or on the ground?

Re: Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikely to recover by 2040

#80

Post by endisneigh »

dmbche wrote: post #76
endisneigh wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do tell how this makes money, and why many are not jumping at this opportunity

It's only an opportunity for government as zoning/regulations have to be adjusted for this situation. If that happens, and it's made reasonable to convert offices into housing, pretty easy to make money from that. (Edit: by renting/selling the housing - if that wasn't clear yet) What are we gonna do with the offices anyway? Keep em empty for old times sake?

Why would the owners of the office space sell? They could do this themselves if it’s that lucrative.
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