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Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

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Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#91

Another recent (but not called out in this article) is the "Textbooks Are All You Need" paper [1]; the results seem to suggest that careful curation and curriculums of training data can significantly improve model capabilities (when training domain specific, smaller models). Claiming a 10x smaller model can outperform competitors. (Eg. phi-1 vs. starcoder) [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.11644

TBH, it looks like metric manipulation to me. They have used GPT-3.5 to generate their data(and not use textbooks at all like the title suggests). And their dataset is very much like their benchmark data. While there was some filtering, but still it is very possible that lot of the benchmark questions were in training data. We likely wouldn't ever know how good the model is as it not only closed but they haven't prov…

They seemed to be pretty mindful of this contamination, and call out that they agressively pruned some training dataset and still observed strong performance. That said, I agree, I really want to try it out myself and see how it feels, and if the scores really translate to day-to-day capabilities.

From section 5:

    In Figure 2.1, we see that training on CodeExercises leads to a substantial boost in the performance of the
    model on the HumanEval benchmark. To investigate this boost, we propose to prune the CodeExercises
    dataset by removing files that are “similar” to those in HumanEval. This process can be viewed as
    a “strong form” of data decontamination. We then retrain our model on such pruned data, and still
    observe strong performance on HumanEval. In particular, even after aggressively pruning more than
    40% of the CodeExercises dataset (this even prunes files that are only vaguely similar to HumanEval, see
    Appendix C), the retrained phi-1 still outperforms StarCoder.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#92
I've been following the LLMs and I don't think it's 'running out of road', except in the sense that it's expensive. The model perplexity keeps decreasing when you scale up the parameters and exaflops and dataset sizes in the right proportions, and this decreasing perplexity is what has been unlocking so many amazing cognitive capabilities. I think the limitations are about regulatory deals not about any kind of technical roadblocks.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#93

Isn't the fundamental problem that LLM's don't actually understand anything (as greater concepts), but rather operate as complex probability machines? My 2 month active experience with ChatGPT-4 gave me the following takeaways: - when it's right, it's amazing; and when you, the operator, can recognize the niche use case where it performs really well, it can be a game-changer (although you could have programmed a tool…

I do think there's an element to it of "uncanny valleyness". If you know absolutely nothing about a topic the authoritative tone and factualness of what it says is very appealing and even helpful in the same way that consulting an encyclopedia is helpful: it tells you of things you could investigate further that would never appear through a keyword search. But if you stop there, your knowledge is "roughly encyclopedic" which means it contains the hidden bias of some anonymous author, and not the harder-earned relationships of facts and logic.

If you use it to translate things between formal encodings("turn this into hexadecimal bytes, now role-play a lawyer arguing about why that is meaningful") it can produce occasionally useful aesthetic results and speed along tasks that would be challenging to model formally and don't need a lot of rigor.

But once you start pushing it to be technically accurate in a narrow, measurable direction it flounders and the probabilistic element is revealed. Once, I asked it to translate a short string of Japanese characters and it confidently said that it was Kenshiro's catch phrase from Fist of the North Star, "Omae wa mou shinderu" (you are already dead) which I could clearly see it wasn't - not a single character matched. It's just the thing if you need to learn some anime Japanese, though.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#94
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The next iteration will be trained on your own data where "when it's a little wrong, you (the expert) can fix the issue and move on without friction" so that case will become "when it's right" and some amount of "when it's any amount of wrong" cases will become "when it's a little wrong". A few more cycles of this and we could be looking at GPT-10 which is a complete replacement for most tasks.

Better result from less data? I doubt that.

I mean 'better result from less data' is at least a little bit possible. For example you can just clean out obviously bad data from the trillions of tokens data sets. It's things like the subreddit where they are counting to a million or just like long lists of hash values in random cryptocurrency logs.

I agree that in the bigger picture this doesn't matter, but it's technically true that cleaning the data in some way would help.

A related project is TinyStories where they try to use good data for unlocking the LLM cognitive capabilities without requiring as many parameters or exaflops. Again, there is obviously a limit to this, and maybe the effort is better spent on just getting even more gigantic dataset instead of nitpicking the useless or redundant data in the dataset.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#95
post #11

We need a way to make tight little specialist models that don't hallucinate and reliably report when they don't know. Trying to cram all of the web into a LLM is a dead end.

> and reliably report when they don't know. Then we need a new system, because LMs, no matter if they are large or not, cannot do that, for a very simple reason: A LM doesn't understand "truthfulness". It has no concept of a sequence being true or not, only of a sequence being probable. And that probability cannot work as a standin for truthfulness, because the LM doesn't produce improbable sequences to begin with...…

[deleted]

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#96
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The next iteration will be trained on your own data where "when it's a little wrong, you (the expert) can fix the issue and move on without friction" so that case will become "when it's right" and some amount of "when it's any amount of wrong" cases will become "when it's a little wrong". A few more cycles of this and we could be looking at GPT-10 which is a complete replacement for most tasks.

Better result from less data? I doubt that.

[dead]

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a while my replacement was “use google, add ‘reddit’ at the end.” Not sure how much longer that will work given even just this limited blackout impacted how effective that was lol

That hasn’t worked since about three months after companies found out people do it. It’s all astroturfing now days anyway and if it applies to products (which it for sure does) you can be sure that government actors caught on as well.

I'm not sure if it would help or restore the kinds of results you were seeing previously, but instead of adding "reddit", you can add "site:reddit.com" to get only results from that site. (Originally a Google feature, but works on DuckDuckGo also. Not sure about others.)

Unless you mean that Reddit is astroturfed with the SEO garbage you're trying to avoid, in which case this will definitely not help.

Is search on Reddit itself still useless?

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#99
A big part of understanding concepts (and being able to reason) is correlating with patterns you already know. Even though there are errors, LLMs are doing fairly well at pattern recall. Which makes me believe that we're perhaps one additive breakthrough away from another major leap in abilities.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#100
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The next iteration will be trained on your own data where "when it's a little wrong, you (the expert) can fix the issue and move on without friction" so that case will become "when it's right" and some amount of "when it's any amount of wrong" cases will become "when it's a little wrong". A few more cycles of this and we could be looking at GPT-10 which is a complete replacement for most tasks.

Better result from less data? I doubt that.

This is actually possible - if you have a biased dataset, then more data is bad.

More data will fix variance problems, but not bias.

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