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Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

economist.com

31–40 of 354 posts

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#31
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Search has definitely been dead since before LLMs, we just don't have a replacement yet.

I mean more the concept of search, not the current implementation

Oh, I don't think we'll ever stop wanting to search for things. Maybe not everything, but some things.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#32
post #11

We need a way to make tight little specialist models that don't hallucinate and reliably report when they don't know. Trying to cram all of the web into a LLM is a dead end.

GPT4 is really good at code and you can generally verify hallucination easily.

The other good use cases are using LLM to turn natural language prompts into API calls to real data.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#33
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have those reports from George Hotz been confirmed? It seems plausible to me, but also suggests to me that we have further to go by using that parameter budget for depth rather than for width.

It seems consistent with the behavior we see when using GPT4 in chat mode. Every once in a while it will change its answer as it’s generating it, as though it’s switched which model it favors to produce the response. GPT3.5 doesn’t do that.

MoE models don't work like that though

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#34
post #11

We need a way to make tight little specialist models that don't hallucinate and reliably report when they don't know. Trying to cram all of the web into a LLM is a dead end.

This is ultimately just very powerful semantic search though, is it not?

It seems that what we need to make a big leap forward is better reasoning. There is a lot of debate between the GPT-4 can/can't reason camps, but I haven't seen anyone try to argue that it reasons particularly well.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#35
post #32
post #11

We need a way to make tight little specialist models that don't hallucinate and reliably report when they don't know. Trying to cram all of the web into a LLM is a dead end.

GPT4 is really good at code and you can generally verify hallucination easily. The other good use cases are using LLM to turn natural language prompts into API calls to real data.

This is what I've been doing. GPT-4 to generate some data from some input, followed up by a 3.5T call to verify the output against the input to verify the content. You can feed the 3.5T output straight back into GPT-4 again and it will self-correct.

Doing this a couple of times gives me 100% accuracy for my use case that involves some level of summarization and reasoning.

Hallucinations are not as big of a deal at all IMO. Not enough that I'll just sit there and wait for models that don't hallucinate.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#36
I think the worst case scenario, and the one that I think is the most likely, is that we plateau at broad and shallow AI. Broad enough such that it can be used to replace many workers (it may not do a great job though), but narrow enough such that we don't really see the kinds of productivity increases that would usher in the pseudo-utopia that many AI folks talk about.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#37
post #11

We need a way to make tight little specialist models that don't hallucinate and reliably report when they don't know. Trying to cram all of the web into a LLM is a dead end.

How are we determining it's a dead end here? Recently things like GPT-4 have come out which have improved on that technique. Why would specialization necessarily reduce hallucination and improve accuracy?

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> using the “show the model the data only once“ approach which is just wasteful. According to the InstructGPT paper, that is not the case, showing the data multiple times results in overfitting.

1. You are just referring to fine tuning, I am referring to training the base model. 2. They still saw performance improvements which is why they did train on the data multiple times, you can see in the paper. 3. there was a recent paper demonstrating that reusing data still saw continued improvements in perplexity, i am on my ipad so cannot find it now

> 1. You are just referring to fine tuning, I am referring to training the base model.

Ahh mb! Sorry.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#39

How is the economist qualified to answer this question?

Using this logic, how are they qualified to answer 90% of the questions their articles deal with...

Yes and no. Most questions they answers are more politically leaning, meaning that they are not optimisation problems but they answer the question of the kind of society we want to be.

This specific article seems to be reporting on a very technical issue on how to continue to scale LLM. Even scientific papers have a hard time answering those kind of questions because unless in very special circumstances where we can show with a good confidence that there are limitations (P vs NP for instance) the answer will simply be given by the most successful approach.

Re: Many in the AI field think the bigger-is-better approach is running out of road

#40
post #11

We need a way to make tight little specialist models that don't hallucinate and reliably report when they don't know. Trying to cram all of the web into a LLM is a dead end.

Its complicated.

Training on something huge like "the internet" is what gives rise to those amazing emergent properties missing in smaller models (including the recent Pi model). And there are only so many datasets that huge.

But its also indeed a waste, as Pi proves.

There probably is some sweet spot (6B-40B?) for specialized, heavily focused models pre trained with high quality general data.

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