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Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

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Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#201

Post by haswell »

_V_ wrote: post #197
haswell wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic. [0] This is just way outside of the HN wheelhouse. The guidelines are pretty clear. - [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

That is true, but the guidelines also say anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity. History of nations & psychology & huge geopolitical changes is indeed something I find very interesting. And I think I'm not alone as I don't believe that hackers have to be interested only in tech and nothing else.

Many subjects that could also be quite interesting are still flagged due to the kind of comments they attract, i.e. the not intellectually curious kind. Even for more typical non-news HN content, things that veer into reactive territory get quickly flagged.

For what it’s worth, dang has commented on this specific event in more detail here [0] and addresses the curiosity piece.

Bottom line: all discussion about this event at this point will be made of speculation and hot takes, because we have very little solid info about the unfolding situation.

- [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36456034

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#202

Post by _V_ »

haswell wrote: post #201
_V_ wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is true, but the guidelines also say anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity. History of nations & psychology & huge geopolitical changes is indeed something I find very interesting. And I think I'm not alone as I don't believe that hackers have to be interested only in tech and nothing else.

Many subjects that could also be quite interesting are still flagged due to the kind of comments they attract, i.e. the not intellectually curious kind. Even for more typical non-news HN content, things that veer into reactive territory get quickly flagged. For what it’s worth, dang has commented on this specific event in more detail here [0] and addresses the curiosity piece. Bottom line: all discussion about this e…

That is the nature of an unfolding situation. I was trying to post updates from the sources I found and was hoping more interested people would join in for us to get clearer picture and to watch up close.

Saying that you cannot have conversation about this just reeks of a poorly veiled elitism.

Dang also said that "There hasn't been a coup" in thad thread you link to which leads me to believe he has no idea what is going on and what is at stake here or he simply does not care. Which is fine, but to say that there is nothing to discuss is just ... wrong.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#203

Post by _V_ »

alvarezbjm-hn wrote: post #172
iopq wrote: post #167

Why is this flagged? It might be the most important thing to happen all year

I find this, so far, to be the single most important event since Kiev-not-falling-within-48 hours after the Chinese winter games last year. This is the riptide. And Wagner surprisingly still has 20k - 30k soldiers. Even if it fizzles, this is a landmark in the war.

So far it seems like they are going all in. I would say that it does not even matter at this point who wins as it will destabilize whole country/region either way.

Also who knows what will happen in Belarus and Chechnya as there are anti-estblishment forces that have been waiting for quite some time for an opportunity to strike.

Either way this has huge potential to grow into something similar as happend to USSR.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#204

Post by corpMaverick »

ptero wrote: post #142
treis wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wagner definitely can fight and I think this is a real danger for Putin. The invasion did not go well and he's vulnerable to more hawkish members of the military who wish to escalate the war. It's not guaranteed that units will agree to deploy against other Russians. Not guaranteed that if they deploy they will fight. Not guaranteed that if they fight they will win. Wagner has crossed the Rubicon and now it's do or d…

> Wagner has crossed the Rubicon Prigozhin did, and maybe a few of his top lieutenants, but Wagner is not a uniform structure. Wagner is a mix of: A) Older, experienced soldiers of fortune types. They did tours in Africa and other places and know how to fight. They are not too numerous and they have absolutely no interest in politics, fairness and especially any conflict with regular Russian forces. They are doing th…

A) types might be motivated to go to Moscow and get their money.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#205

Post by cuteboy19 »

gary_0 wrote: post #183
SenHeng wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large contingent of 'no politics, not my business' in here.

A potential coup in one of the world's most populous countries, who are also in the midst of the largest war in Europe since WW2, is not just "politics". That's ridiculous. A major portion of Russia's de facto military, led by one of the country's most prominent figures, has left Ukraine and is heading for Moscow. This is history happening right in front of us. If HN was around in 1989, would the fall of the Berlin W…

Whatever else ... who has the nukes?

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#206

Post by baybal2 »

cuteboy19 wrote: post #205
gary_0 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A potential coup in one of the world's most populous countries, who are also in the midst of the largest war in Europe since WW2, is not just "politics". That's ridiculous. A major portion of Russia's de facto military, led by one of the country's most prominent figures, has left Ukraine and is heading for Moscow. This is history happening right in front of us. If HN was around in 1989, would the fall of the Berlin W…

Whatever else ... who has the nukes?

[dead]

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#207

Post by Vibgyor5 »

I am in Russia currently. Not Russian but I speak fluent Russian and have acquaintances in affected territories.

Update: 19:28 Moscow time.

- Situation is normal in cities and oblasts: as in, there seem to be no panic but people are definitely reading the news.

- Everyone support the government - although I find Russians to be highly political apathetic (which is one of the major roots of the problems in the country IME). The ones who'd soft corner for Wagner also seem to note that Prigozhin should've picked a better time for this. Wagner posters for recruitment are being removed. In all sense, it has fallen from grace.

- Wagner definitely does not have a high proportion of supporters amongst civilians. Within the army's junior ranks (and in Rosgvardiya) there are people that are more sympathetic to it, hence, why they do not explicitly used force against them. Rumors here are that this is one of the reasons why Ahmat forces were sent to Rostov.

- Wagner forces themselves seem to have strict instructions not to use show of force against esp. civilians in order to not alienate them.

- I'd take Western-news with some salt as well because this is a good time to mix information-war as well.

- Moscow is on high alert, people aren't suggested to make too many public movements, and Monday is declared holiday for most public institutions. Many dense places (malls etc.) have been evacuated. I believe this is to ensure that civilians are neither impacted nor used as hostages.

- For best/live updates, use Telegram channels (in Russian) or Tass (in Russian, use your BS-sensor accordingly)

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#208

Post by more_corn »

fwungy wrote: post #15

This is absurd. It makes no sense. I'm calling psyop.

I was thinking “oh great opportunity for Ukraine to push forward”, then “oh, if it’s fake and Ukraine pushes forward and over-extends it’ll go badly for them”

But if you and I can figure that out in five minutes from around the world it’s unlikely that battle-hardened war leaders will fall for a trap.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#209

Post by 908B64B197 »

Vibgyor5 wrote: post #207

I am in Russia currently. Not Russian but I speak fluent Russian and have acquaintances in affected territories. Update: 19:28 Moscow time. - Situation is normal in cities and oblasts: as in, there seem to be no panic but people are definitely reading the news. - Everyone support the government - although I find Russians to be highly political apathetic (which is one of the major roots of the problems in the country…

> I find Russians to be highly political apathetic

That's a good survival strategy.

You'll see them side with the winner as soon as it becomes obvious who that is.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#210

Post by more_corn »

psychphysic wrote: post #90
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a traditional coup on MONDAY at 3 am soldiers roll into the TV stations and various government buildings This is a military coup. The army is in Zaporizhia. Moscow is defended by the FSB and national guard. Prigozhin needs to rally disgruntled forces to his side to enable him to move his troops. Quietly maneuvering would hand the narrative to the regime.

Well I for one am biting the bullet and getting Netflix multiscreen 4K. Might as well see the world end in style.

Why would a military coup attempt in Russia cause the world to end?
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