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Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

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Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#91

Post by alvarezbjm-hn »

WhereIsTheTruth wrote: post #52

What kind of reaction people expect from this hackernews post? Anything that goes against the dogma will get shut down? What's the veracity of this article to begin with? In the age of digital transformation, what are the chances we are reading fake news from the Ukrainian front? They attack each other? well, if they killed some russians and stole their missiles, it's easy to create confusion on the adversary camp, c…

https://www.rt.com/russia/578547-prigozhin-fsb-armed-rebelli...

I am not sorry to break the charm, but there is "SOMETHING" about it on Russian Television. You can't believe all details, but now both parts (East and West) are reporting that this is happening.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#93

Post by lostmsu »

chongli wrote: post #51
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this a serious attempt at a military coup? Wagner's command is competent. The recent border incursions show Russia is lightly fortified, possibly Moscow, too. The wild card would appear to be the FSB. Do they tend ultranationalist? Or will they be loyal to Shoigu?

I really don’t know much about the FSB. How many forces do they have? How much equipment? We have seen that they’re capable of carrying out extraterritorial assassinations and have kept Putin in power for decades by infiltrating and breaking up and political opposition. This is a different story: a full-scale military coup by a private army. But it remains to be seen whether or not Prigozhin would try to topple Putin…

> We have seen that they’re capable of carrying out extraterritorial assassinations

These took months if not years to prepare, even with domestic ones.

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#94

Post by _V_ »

A senior American intelligence official tells me for both Ukraine and U.S. intelligence, it’s a “watch and see if they destroy themselves sort of situation.” They said it was going to be a long night of watching how this develops. Said Wagner is preparing* to mobilize—it’s believed they want to head towards Moscow. Edited original tweet for better context.

https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1672377846524772353

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#95

Post by lolc »

Doesn't read like a good source. Citing the loose cannon does not make a civil war.

But yea, Prigozhin has been hinting that he considers civil war an option when he commented on the retreat from Bakhmut: “we will leave on the 10th of May, and we will wait until the Russian people need us, which we believe is going to happen really soon if you look at how our leaders are acting.”[0]

From my armchair, it doesn't look like a bunch of mercenaries could meaningfully operate within Russia. They'd need decisive support from branches of the regular army. So the question is whether he has alliances. As long as they haven't revealed themselves, this will stay cold. Or Prigozhin will die real quick.

[0] https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-suc...

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#96

Post by nurandal »

bawolff wrote: post #35
fwungy wrote: post #15

This is absurd. It makes no sense. I'm calling psyop.

I wouldn't say none. If you're going to plan a coup, do it well the military is distracted.

true: but looking at whats being posted on telegram and twitter, it looks like the russian security services (which probably weren't affected by the russian army recruitment draft) still have a lot of people (and brand new shiny jeeps and afvs, despite the shortage of new vehicles in ukraine for them).

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#98

Post by [deleted] »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #53
bemusedthrow75 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He would stabilise nothing. You realise he's off his rocker, right? The stopped clock has just been momentarily right. There is no situation where it is a good idea that a mercenary army leader whose staff are criminals takes power over a nuclear-armed state.

> would stabilise nothing Do we really expect Putin to manage a peaceful transfer of power? Devil you know, and all that.

[deleted]

Re: Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

#100

Post by dbsights »

My guess: its a tactic designed to embolden the enemy and keep them committed to a failing strategy.

Bakhmut was a meat grinder, but as long as the hope of victory could be kept alive in the Ukrainian army, they would keep sending their troops to slaughter. So we got all of these videos about chaos & ammo running out on the Russian side. And the Ukrainians obligingly poured manpower into an almost-perfectly-surrounded killbox. Saw how that turned out.

I'd bet its the same deal with the current offensive, which has been similarly ruinous for Ukraine.

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