151–160 of 202 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That "common knowledge" is wrong. Myers briggs is not great for scientific studies since it splits people into 16 buckets instead of sliding scales (like the Big 5, which is used in research). But MB is an incredible mental toolkit to have.
MB is astrology for nerds.
With the four discrete variables in MBTI, I can type people with 90% accuracy after a conversation.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> e.g. there were times where 7 out of 8 interviewers said "pass", she said "hire" and she was always right. Just noting: that situation around that assessment can affect the outcome. For example, hired person appreciates the opportunity/faith extended to them, or otherwise picks up on the need to rise to the occasion. Or a manager or other staff sees/treats the person differently because of the circumstances (e.g.,…
> For example, hired person appreciates the opportunity/faith extended to them, or otherwise picks up on the need to rise to the occasion. I don't think it would make sense to tell a hired person "you barely got in here, everybody hated you except for one interviewer".
"Jessica is the reason we hired you - she says you'll be great here and when she says that she's always right" technically says "we weren't going to hire you", but also "we all believe in you".
I don't doubt Jessica is good at reading people, but I found out during hiring people is that it is the easiest/cheapest skill to hire. I am honestly curious about why pg skipped the most frequently asked question: Would Jessica be close to this level of successful if she was not his wife? Also I would be very curious to know about female founders that Jessica selected. According to [1], companies with at least 1 fem…
For example, let's say probability of being successful is due to random chance, and effects both genders equally. Then ratio of successful women to successful men would just reflect the ratio of women to men. Now imagine if the actual valuation of successful companies is exponentially weighted, so that the top 1 or 2 companies make up the bulk of the total valuation. Again, these two companies are more likely to be founded by men given the base gender rate, and now the percent of valuation attributed to men would completely dominate the valuation percent.
To get the real effectiveness of female founders, we need to account for the low probability of success and low probability of being female.
I think both can be achieved with Bayes theorem:
p($_high|f) = p($_high) p(f|$_high) / Sum_i[p($_i) p(f|$_i)]
p($_high|m) = p($_high) p(m|$_high) / Sum_i[p($_i) p(m|$_i)]
Note: p($_i) represents a sequence of valuation probabilities subdivided to reflect low valuation, moderate valuation etc. I think this should account for the exponential distribution of valuation, but someone correct me if I'm wrong.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
MB is astrology for nerds.
Astrology has a one in twelve chance of accuracy since the only variable is birthday. With the four discrete variables in MBTI, I can type people with 90% accuracy after a conversation.
I don't doubt Jessica is good at reading people, but I found out during hiring people is that it is the easiest/cheapest skill to hire. I am honestly curious about why pg skipped the most frequently asked question: Would Jessica be close to this level of successful if she was not his wife? Also I would be very curious to know about female founders that Jessica selected. According to [1], companies with at least 1 fem…
Careful, this seems to be falling for the prosecutor's fallacy where the probabilities aren't normalized to account for base rates of the hypothesis occuring. So in this case, the percent of successful valuations that have a female founders will likely be extremely low simply because the gender ratio is disproportionaly male, and being successful is extremely rare. For example, let's say probability of being successf…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
MB is astrology for nerds.
Astrology has a one in twelve chance of accuracy since the only variable is birthday. With the four discrete variables in MBTI, I can type people with 90% accuracy after a conversation.
Posting this here because (as pointed out by pg's recent tweet about Wikipedia) many people don't realize just how important a role Jessica Livingston has played "behind the scenes".
I wish pg the best but I think everyone should know how much legal liability these kind of public writings creates. A person I know closely had 25 year marriage in CA and he always believed in love and lifelong relationship. But as their kids went to college, wife's priorities changed. She started affair, started helping out her partner financially etc. Husband discovered all these accidently from her phone. After ma…
[flagged]
I don't doubt Jessica is good at reading people, but I found out during hiring people is that it is the easiest/cheapest skill to hire. I am honestly curious about why pg skipped the most frequently asked question: Would Jessica be close to this level of successful if she was not his wife? Also I would be very curious to know about female founders that Jessica selected. According to [1], companies with at least 1 fem…