Earlier quoted context omitted.
A bet gone wrong.. Many innovations started off in a similar manner, ignoring or challenging the status quo.. That said, it's mighty spectacular and sad the way he was proven wrong. rip.
If cutting corners is considered an innovation, then it needs to be treated differently than other types of innovation. And not fall under this umbrella of "oh well he tried, nothing ventured nothing gained."
Titan sub CEO dismissed safety warnings as 'baseless cries', emails show
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Re: Titan sub CEO dismissed safety warnings as 'baseless cries', emails show
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd argue it's still unethical to put others at risk due to your own incompetence. I wouldn't offer to rewire someone's home because I'm not an electrician, and their house could burn down if I do it incorrectly.
Is it unethical if you don't know you're incompetent?
Re: Titan sub CEO dismissed safety warnings as 'baseless cries', emails show
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Are you still unethical when you don't know about your incompetence? You're correct that reality can be more complicated, and it depends. I can imagine a scenario, e.g. the plot of "Manchester by the Sea" which doesn't seem completely unethical. I find it hard to believe in this case that he was that incompetent. I think he took what he believed to be a calculated risk, and I'm guessing he didn't go around broadcas…
They signed a waiver that mentioned the risk of "death" 3 times on the first page. I'd call that broadcasting. Edit: I mean just read the waiver: https://nypost.com/2023/06/23/read-the-death-waiver-doomed-t... It speaks for itself.
Re: Titan sub CEO dismissed safety warnings as 'baseless cries', emails show
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you still commit a crime if you don't know that what you're doing is against the law?
Not usually, no. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mens_rea You can definitely be convicted of one, though!
Re: Titan sub CEO dismissed safety warnings as 'baseless cries', emails show
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this is only partially true. Generally, Risk = probability x severity. From that link, they characterized the severity (death) but not the probability. Saying "you may die" is different from saying "your have a 50% chance of dying." My guess is nobody had a good estimate for the probability so nobody could have accurately communicated the risk.
"2. A portion of the operation will be conducted inside an experimental submersible vessel. The experimental submersible vessel has not been approved or certified by any regulatory body and may be constructed of materials that have not been widely used in human occupied submersibles ." I don't know. This implies a high probability to me.
E.g., one of the problems with the Shuttle disasters is that the implied risk was understood differently at various levels. (Making numbers up here but directionally accurate) After the fact, managers thought there was a 1/1000 risk of catastrophic failure while engineers put it a 1/172.
Re: Titan sub CEO dismissed safety warnings as 'baseless cries', emails show
#76Regulation exists for a reason and is not always a bad thing; sadly OceanGate is providing one of those periodic reminders.
I'm outraged at OceanGate and feel as if the CEO and the company were grossly irresponsible. Any wrongful death lawsuits would be more than appropriate.
On the other hand, OceanGate and its CEO were very open about not seeking certification or classing. They didn't try to hide it. Elsewhere on HN now there's a post to an OceanGate blog page arguing about why they didn't seek certification.
So why would anyone sign up for anything involving that submersible? If you were going to go on a mission to the bottom of the ocean, wouldn't you do a lot of research? Wouldn't you demand it be third-party certified if that is industry practice?
I guess there's regulation and then there's regulation, so it's possible that international regulations could be codified to just formalize what is considered standard practice (that is, classing the vessel by an appropriate third party). But I worry that whenever regulations are drafted, they start to become the sort of monster the OceanGate CEO was falsely suggesting.
I'm not sure what I'm saying, because I'm not really even meaning to argue against this as being a good example of where there should maybe regulations. It probably is. But I could also envision this as maybe a case where the reminder is to take risks seriously and be deeply skeptical of persons and institutions not willing to have their work scrutinized by independent bodies.
I do have family who work in this specific area professionally; I haven't spoken to them yet about the incident but I suspect they would see this more as a case of gross negligence and irresponsibility rather than as an area in need of heavy regulation, but I could be wrong. As I think of it, from what I know from their professional experiences, there should have been a lot of red flags that I suspect will come to light in the near future.
Maybe I'm biased in that regard, because everyone I know doing oceanic and deep sea work have been deeply enmeshed in all things ocean and marine their entire lives, and probably would be aware of all these issues. My guess is this family member would have thought it irresponsible to bring those particular passengers anywhere in the deep sea in the first place, on any vessel.
In that regard it would be good to see this turn into some reflection on what it means about society that real world wisdom, expertise, and skills are somehow superceded by monetary net worth. Has it always been this way?
I feel as if society is trapped in some hall of mirrors maze, between fake and real expertise, and worthless and essential certifications and regulations. I'm not sure what's worse: OceanGate CEO Rush's dangerous and absurd arguments against certification, or the fact that his arguments resonate enough as truth with ostensibly successful individuals, that they can be conned by them.
Re: Titan sub CEO dismissed safety warnings as 'baseless cries', emails show
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not really. He thought it was safer than it was. But I don't think he thought it was close to a 0% chance of death. It's clear that he knew it was somewhat risky. It failed after like 25 dives which means around a ~4% failure rate. I'd hope he thought it had less than a 1% failure rate. Who knows what the true failure rate is. Maybe they got really lucky, and it actually had a higher failure rate. Maybe they got extr…
I'm struggling to find real statistics to back this up, but my suspicion is that other deep-submergence vehicles used to travel to this depth (and further) have a failure rate of 0% for manned missions. My suspicion is based on the fact that I can't find any other stories of deep sea vehicles failing and killing their passengers in the last 40 years. DSV Alvin for example has completed 5,000 dives with 0 fatalities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jJ_SSU-ocU
He mentioned since 1960, but unclear if that was because that's when the deep sea submersible exploration started, or something happened in 1960.
That makes OceanGate's sub seem like a uniquely incompetent design.
Re: Titan sub CEO dismissed safety warnings as 'baseless cries', emails show
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
If cutting corners is considered an innovation, then it needs to be treated differently than other types of innovation. And not fall under this umbrella of "oh well he tried, nothing ventured nothing gained."
Was using carbon fiber cutting corners? It seems like it is a more exotic and expensive construction than just using steel. It was innovation for innovation's sake.
Re: Titan sub CEO dismissed safety warnings as 'baseless cries', emails show
#79An excerpt from an email Stockton Rush sent out, according to the article (emphasis mine): >I have grown tired of industry players who try to use a safety argument to stop innovation and new entrants from entering their small existing market. Since Guillermo and I started OceanGate we have heard the baseless cries of "you are going to kill someone" way too often. I take this as a serious personal insult. Just... wow.
Re: Titan sub CEO dismissed safety warnings as 'baseless cries', emails show
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm struggling to find real statistics to back this up, but my suspicion is that other deep-submergence vehicles used to travel to this depth (and further) have a failure rate of 0% for manned missions. My suspicion is based on the fact that I can't find any other stories of deep sea vehicles failing and killing their passengers in the last 40 years. DSV Alvin for example has completed 5,000 dives with 0 fatalities.
According to this interview with Bob Ballard, there have been no fatalities or catastrophic accidents in the deep sea submersible/exploration world. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jJ_SSU-ocU He mentioned since 1960, but unclear if that was because that's when the deep sea submersible exploration started, or something happened in 1960. That makes OceanGate's sub seem like a uniquely incompetent design.
OceanGate just ruined a 60 year perfect track record for an entire field of engineering.