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Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

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Re: Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

#161

Post by msm_ »

lm28469 wrote: post #128
toomuchtodo wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Metro reports that last year, when asked about the safety of the Titan submersible, Stockton Rush, OceanGate’s CEO, said, “You know, there’s a limit. At some point safety just is pure waste. I mean if you just want to be safe, don’t get out of bed. Don’t get in your car. Don’t do anything. At some point, you’re going to take some risk, and it really is a risk/reward question. I think I can do this just as safely by…

> it really is a risk/reward question risk: die reward: cool pic on instagram

Depends on the risk probability, I guess. Walking across the street has nonzero chance of dying. By that logic going to a shop for an icecream has low reward (icecream) and high risk (death).

Re: Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

#162

Post by jacquesm »

npunt wrote: post #53
GoToRO wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Nominative determinism strikes again, sadly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nominative_determinism

In an effort to stave off the effects of this phenomenon a dutch architect changed his name from 'Rothuizen' (rotten houses) to 'Rotshuizen' (houses solid as a rock).

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evert_Jan_Rotshuizen

Re: Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

#163

Post by salawat »

phire wrote: post #146
adamredwoods wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious why Stockton Rush thought carbon fibre would be enough? I'm trying to find out how it would be sufficient. I'm sure we'll find out more later why it failed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OceanGate#Design_and_construct...

"Titan is equipped with a real-time acoustic monitoring system, which OceanGate claims can detect the onset of buckling in the carbon fiber hull prior to catastrophic failure." I see a number of potential flaws with that plan. You are assuming it will fail in a way that produces a warning and then stays intact enough to resurface. You are also relying on an electronic device to not fail. And audio processing algorith…

I concur. I find that the odds of an at-scale, full production version of such a system being implemented with what was shown to be available in the vessel is highly dubious.

Besides which, it's entirely possible as well that adhesive was progressively chemically compromised, with no attempts to measure it... I can think of myriad directions to investigate

Then again, I don't have access to schemata either.... So I should really just stop. It just kills me though, because this entire event has 'preventable but I didn't want to bother' written all over it.

Re: Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

#164

Post by medvezhenok »

za3faran wrote: post #157
ceejayoz wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there anything the NY Post can't try to blame on wokeness? The objection seems to be age, not race: > “I wanted our team to be younger, to be inspirational and I’m not going to inspire a 16-year-old to go pursue marine technology, but a 25-year-old, uh, you know, who’s a sub pilot or a platform operator or one of our techs can be inspirational,” said Rush. Not an uncommon scenario at startups.

It's different when your company deals works in a life critical space.

Are any of these accidents attributable to woke culture?

https://earthnworld.com/space-shuttle-disasters/

Re: Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

#165

Post by ansible »

jacquesm wrote: post #118
WORMS_EAT_WORMS wrote: post #90

Almost as interesting as this story has been the comments online. Everyone, everywhere just parroting and re-parroting the same comments, attitude, pretending to understand the engineering with snippets from comments they’ve read, reactive talking points, etc… Very strange. Did anyone else feel like an alien following this story online?

Not really. I work with a company that does this kind of stuff (deep see exploration vehicle design), materials science is a tricky but very interesting subject. When someone seemingly does 'the impossible', subjects paying passengers to extreme risks and throws the rulebook on safe design out of the porthole you can bet there will be an entry in 'Risks Digest' at some point or another. Carbon fiber is a great materi…

> Carbon fiber is a great material, if used where it shines. For this application I don't think it is a good choice, even if it worked a few times. What I didn't understand is the focus on the electronics and the control system, those are irrelevant if the hull isn't going to work out.

That's all true, but the use of the Logitech game controller and and other consumer-grade electronics rightfully drew scorn of its own.

I deal with automotive electronics, which is less rigorous than aerospace and/or military applications, never mind deep sea operation. Even so, in the automotive space, there is considerable attention paid to making the housings, cables and the electronics themselves robust with regards to the environmental conditions. Heat, cold, moisture, dirt, vibration, salt, etc. The idea of using non-redundant, consumer grade electronics to control a deep sea vessel is ridiculous. Just being regularly exposed to salty air could induce corrosion in critical components.

Re: Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

#166

Post by jacquesm »

phire wrote: post #83
jonah wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the press-conference they said both end bells were found separately - no mention of whether the window was still intact. It'll be interesting to see the failure analysis. [Edit] Link to video with a description of the major debris found: https://youtu.be/A0xJ220Fod4?t=263 "the front end-bell of the pressure hull - that was the first indication that there was a catastrophic event" "the aft end-bell which basically.…

That suggests it was the carbon fibre shell that failed. If it was the Plexiglas that failed (or other part of the end bell assembly), I'd expect the pressure to quickly equalise though the failure point and the carbon fibre shell to remain relatively intact and hold those end bells together. Though, I'm not an engineer. Maybe the rapid change in loading could result in the carbon fibre shattering.

No, even if the window failed the carbon shell would be blown to pieces due to the asymmetric load during the inrush phase. At that pressure difference there is nothing strong enough to withstand asymmetric loading.

Time will tell. But plexiglass has better cycling properties than carbon fiber so my guess is that hull went first.

Re: Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

#167

Post by jacquesm »

salawat wrote: post #163
phire wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Titan is equipped with a real-time acoustic monitoring system, which OceanGate claims can detect the onset of buckling in the carbon fiber hull prior to catastrophic failure." I see a number of potential flaws with that plan. You are assuming it will fail in a way that produces a warning and then stays intact enough to resurface. You are also relying on an electronic device to not fail. And audio processing algorith…

I concur. I find that the odds of an at-scale, full production version of such a system being implemented with what was shown to be available in the vessel is highly dubious. Besides which, it's entirely possible as well that adhesive was progressively chemically compromised, with no attempts to measure it... I can think of myriad directions to investigate Then again, I don't have access to schemata either.... So I s…

> this entire event has 'preventable but I didn't want to bother' written all over it.

Yes, this is precisely it. None of this had to happen, it's a combination of greed and hubris.

Re: Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

#168

Post by WORMS_EAT_WORMS »

jacquesm wrote: post #118
WORMS_EAT_WORMS wrote: post #90

Almost as interesting as this story has been the comments online. Everyone, everywhere just parroting and re-parroting the same comments, attitude, pretending to understand the engineering with snippets from comments they’ve read, reactive talking points, etc… Very strange. Did anyone else feel like an alien following this story online?

Not really. I work with a company that does this kind of stuff (deep see exploration vehicle design), materials science is a tricky but very interesting subject. When someone seemingly does 'the impossible', subjects paying passengers to extreme risks and throws the rulebook on safe design out of the porthole you can bet there will be an entry in 'Risks Digest' at some point or another. Carbon fiber is a great materi…

My point was highlighting how strange it has been reading commentary of the event online. I mean no offense at all (!) but even your comment plays into it perfectly in a way.

Re: Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

#169

Post by jacquesm »

Solvency wrote: post #122
ilyt wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's carbon fiber. It doesn't break like soda can, it breaks like eggshells or hard plastic. It would probably look like something exploded on side of it, when any small hole/crack started it would just isntantly make rest of it rip till the pressure equalizes

Empty eggshells implode into thousands of increasingly smaller little shards. Is that what happened here?

Depends on the speed of the change. The pressure differential is what causes the material to fracture, the longer the differential exists the more fracturing you will get.

Carbon fiber fails much like wood, you'll end up with a couple of larger fragments and a much larger number of smaller fragments, some too small to even see with the unaided eye.

Unlike say a metal vessel during an implosion which would remain mostly connected but crushed or ripped into a few larger chunks depending on where the initial fault was.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VNvEpDyUhvo

Shows nicely how a fault propagates through carbon fiber.

Re: Oceangate Statement, “We now believe that [all crew] have sadly been lost.”

#170

Post by jacquesm »

WORMS_EAT_WORMS wrote: post #168
jacquesm wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. I work with a company that does this kind of stuff (deep see exploration vehicle design), materials science is a tricky but very interesting subject. When someone seemingly does 'the impossible', subjects paying passengers to extreme risks and throws the rulebook on safe design out of the porthole you can bet there will be an entry in 'Risks Digest' at some point or another. Carbon fiber is a great materi…

My point was highlighting how strange it has been reading commentary of the event online. I mean no offense at all (!) but even your comment plays into it perfectly in a way.

If this is the first time you observe this then you're going to be pretty bored soon because most discussion about such subjects follow that exact same pattern.
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