I know they are the largest company in the the world now, so I don't expect them to double. While on the other hand, there was a recent hn article that they still only had 8% of the worlds cell phone market. What are your thoughts, and better yet your quantitative analysis?
Ask HN: Would you still by Apple stock?
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Re: Ask HN: Would you still by Apple stock?
#2Do you like money?
(I'm personally excited for Mountain Lion, how iBook market will shape the field, next gen iPad, so I'm rather optimistic about Apple)
Re: Ask HN: Would you still by Apple stock?
#3Do you like money? (I'm personally excited for Mountain Lion, how iBook market will shape the field, next gen iPad, so I'm rather optimistic about Apple)
I'm excited with where Siri can go as well. Maybe I'm suffering from the "it can go an higher" bias.
Re: Ask HN: Would you still by Apple stock?
#4Give it some time. For all we know they're in dead reckoning[1] mode right now, where the last fix on their coordinates came from Steve Jobs. They'll continue to extrapolate along their current path but just wait until the winds of change arrive. I think they're hoping to cash in on this period of time between now and when you realize they don't know what the next hotness is.
Re: Ask HN: Would you still by Apple stock?
#5Give it some time. For all we know they're in dead reckoning[1] mode right now, where the last fix on their coordinates came from Steve Jobs. They'll continue to extrapolate along their current path but just wait until the winds of change arrive. I think they're hoping to cash in on this period of time between now and when you realize they don't know what the next hotness is. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_rec…
I suppose the question is, assuming they are dead reckoning, is the current stock price 531 asking too much, or is there still profit to be made?
Re: Ask HN: Would you still by Apple stock?
#6I wouldn't invest in a single company nor would I try invest in specific companies. This is because I believe in the so called "Efficient-market hypothesis"[1].
tl;dr: "one cannot consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis, given the information available at the time the investment is made"
There are many studies that have shown this.
Even if you think you are better informed than the average Apple shareholder - this doesn't matter in the long-run. You may be lucky of course and make a lot of money - but in the long-term average case investing in specific companies is not better than investing in something like the Dow Jones.
Also - the stock market is a highly irrational market that can be shown by a little experiment - I will make it concrete:
As 100 people the following question: Do you think that you know more about Apple than the average Apple investor? Yes or no?
In a perfect world you should get 50 x "yes" and 50 x "no" as an answer. But in reality more than 50% answer with "yes".
Re: Ask HN: Would you still by Apple stock?
#7There's a lot of talk about Apple starting to pay out dividends to stock holders. This could be huge for two reasons. The obvious being that you start making money now rather than waiting for capital growth. The second, less obvious, is that some investors hold the rule that you don't buy stocks that don't pay dividends. If Apple started to pay dividends it would open doors to even more investors. I would assume this would help their stock rise at an even faster rate.
I would still buy Apple stock if I had the cash on hand. I think a possible split would make the stock even more attractive as well. ~530/share makes it somewhat hard to make a meaningful investment.
Re: Ask HN: Would you still by Apple stock?
#8I work with stock market data daily (providing charts and technical alerting to end users) and the kind of growth Apple is having is just not sustainable, I mean it's gone from $320 last Jan to $532 today!
I am a fan of Apple products, but I just dont see it as a good investment, I would suspect that it will either level off or have to talk a fall soon.
So my personal preference is do not buy Apple, I wouldn't (even if I could stomach $525 per share!)
Re: Ask HN: Would you still by Apple stock?
#9There's a lot of talk about Apple starting to pay out dividends to stock holders. This could be huge for two reasons. The obvious being that you start making money now rather than waiting for capital growth. The second, less obvious, is that some investors hold the rule that you don't buy stocks that don't pay dividends. If Apple started to pay dividends it would open doors to even more investors. I would assume this…
I've been a shareholder since 2007 and I would seriously consider selling if they offered a dividend. Offering dividends is not what true growth companies with good plans for the future do. FWIW, I'm far from risk-averse; I wouldn't invest in a single company that offers a dividend due to the implied lack of growth and innovation that is implied by giving away retained earnings that could be used for R&D, strategic acquisitions and new business initiatives. In Apple's case, this includes new markets/products, increased retail exposure and strategic exclusive supply chain deals.
I hope, for Apple's sake and our own, that they don't offer a dividend anywhere in the near future, if ever.
Re: Ask HN: Would you still by Apple stock?
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