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Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

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Re: Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

#81

Post by debaserab2 »

yalogin wrote: post #26

I don't understand how. The mortgage rates are high, so many people who would otherwise have bought a home are not jumping in. So rents will go up. I have seen this happen too

Demand isn’t as reduced as you might think - mortgage rates are trending a couple points under fed rates (I’m not exactly sure how but as someone who just purchased a house I can tell you that’s what I’m seeing). The house we bought we bid on it’s first day on the market - it had 4 other offers and ours only won because we went well over the asking price.

This is just a Midwest city suburb too, so it’s not a market like SF or anything like that.

Re: Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

#82

Post by evanelias »

quantpsychds wrote: post #40
pcurve wrote: post #3

https://archive.is/y28IG I've been looking for a decent 1BR in Manhattan. For something clean and decent, the floor is $4,500. The 40x rent annual income requirement by many landlords, one needs to be making $180,000. sigh.

Cheaper rentals are often not posted online because of the time and cost required. Irrespective of that, plenty of Manhattan 1 bedrooms are well below $4,500, including this one in a building with a 24-hour concierge, air conditioning, stainless steel appliances, and in-unit laundry: https://www.relatedrentals.com/apartment-rentals/new-york-ci... ($4,150)

> plenty of Manhattan 1 bedrooms are well below $4,500, including this one

Your example listing is on Roosevelt Island.

Sure, administratively it's technically the same borough / county as Manhattan. But it's not physically on Manhattan island, and doesn't command the same pricing for that reason.

Re: Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

#83

Post by pcthrowaway »

ttul wrote: post #78
gary_0 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When that starts to happen the Bank of Canada will just lower interest rates to 1% again. The Canadian economy relies heavily on the real estate shell game; they're not going to risk blowing it up. (Maybe they should , and weather the pain so that the economy can go back to producing tangible value again, but that's not how politics works.)

The BoC is relatively technocratic and they won't lower interests purely to help homeowners. However, given how much leverage Canadians carry, a shock to the housing sector would probably bring about a recession, which would force the bank to cut rates... at which point you do have to wonder whether house prices would just head back up to the stratosphere in short order.

> at which point you do have to wonder whether house prices would just head back up to the stratosphere in short order

Not sure why you're assuming they'd ever come back from the stratosphere in the first place. All another rate cut would do is untether housing prices entirely from earth's gravitational field, as they disappear into space, like the prospect of homeownership for most people.

Re: Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

#84

Post by mapt »

jabbany wrote: post #43
mapt wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you actually examined that math? At say, 15 pizzas per person per hour, increasing your wages to $15/hour above where it was before (netting you $2500/mo for housing on top of previous wages before considering taxes/assistance) would add $1 to each pizza. There are countries that have decent access to housing for the working class which aren't somehow impossible to dine in.

I'm assuming OP means a pizza restaurant not a factory? Not a restaurant owner but I'm curious how a pizza place consistently sells 15 pizzas/hour @ 8 hours a day... let alone more More likely what's going to happen is you have "bursty" rush times where you need more people to scale up and dead times where you have minimal sales?

Pizza places are the factories of foodservice; Competitive, assembly line operations, feed a lot of people every night from a shoebox form factor with little or no seating, very low margin by comparison to other foodservice sectors. The cheese is most of the cost of your slice, and you'll have a hard time beating these prices at home.

https://thinktank.pmq.com/t/how-many-pizzas-per-labour-hour/...

"With 2 Edge60 ovens and the right 4 people in the kitchen our best production has been 120 pizzas per hour."

"On my best night with 4 people putting them in and 2 taking them out I can do 60 an hour. Granted, we have 4 different sauces and some of our toppings get put on after they come out of the oven, but I’m certain we can improve that number. What more can you tell us about your set up?"

"We can get about 250 pizzas per hour done in a triple stack. It takes about 12 Insiders to make this happen. Drivers will also help out while they are waiting for deliveries."

"We can get 120 large (16 in) pies per hr using 4 marsal and sons deck ovens. Each oven can hold 6 16 inch pies. We sell smaller sizes too, so we can do a little bit more than 120 including those. ... We do that with 4 people (2 makers, 1 tender, 1 cutter)."

Re: Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

#85

Post by jareklupinski »

wyclif wrote: post #14
throwawaysleep wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you live in NY without an income like that?

A reasonable question. What are the non-negotiables that compel people to live in Manhattan? Is it being able to walk to noodles 24/7, or something else?

yup, when you're on a roll into the wee hours and you're hungry...

there's no where else where I can have a tasty hot sandwich made for me at 2am

without it being a big deal

Re: Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

#86

Post by fragmede »

lordfrito wrote: post #75
fragmede wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize that wasn't true in the past, right? In the 1950's, it was entirely possible for man to support a family with kids on the income from a job and not a career. There is no shortage of problems in that era, but the American dream wasn't fiction.

> but the American dream wasn't fiction Something tells me it's still possible to live with a 1950's "American Dream" standard of living off of a $15 to $20 an hour job. No computers, no cell phones, clothes washing by hand, no eating out, etc. Generous 1000 ft. square foot house with two small bedrooms and a single car. Note that houses in Levittown ("America's First Suburb") were 750 square ft. [1] I understand Gen…

The 1950's had no computer, no cellphone, but the electric washing machine was first patented in 1937, so we'll give them that. Part of that dream included sending the kids to college, so in terms of sheer dollar amounts, a tv and a cellphones is a pittance. Supporting a family of four on a single person's $20/hr job, living simply, isn't actually possible today, and that's not because of luxuries like a cellphone. Inflation came in unequally and wrecked everything.

Re: Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

#87

Post by midoridensha »

dehrmann wrote: post #77
midoridensha wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not happening everywhere: we don't have this problem in Japan. >Cheap loans inflated the price of housing very fast Interest rates here are 0.5% for primary homes. That's not the problem. The problem is a lack of supply. Over here, there's constant new construction, and zoning codes don't prevent new construction or higher density the way they do in other countries. So houses don't appreciate; they depreciate. S…

> we don't have this problem in Japan. This backs up that limited supply is a large part of this. Japan's population has been decreasing for 50 years, so ignoring domestic migration trends, it has enough housing. It's also seen deflation for a long time.

You can't ignore domestic migration trends. Tokyo has been steadily increasing in population (except during the pandemic), as have other major cities. People are leaving the small towns and countryside. In any other place, this would result in hugely increasing prices.

Re: Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

#88

Post by ttul »

pcthrowaway wrote: post #83
ttul wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The BoC is relatively technocratic and they won't lower interests purely to help homeowners. However, given how much leverage Canadians carry, a shock to the housing sector would probably bring about a recession, which would force the bank to cut rates... at which point you do have to wonder whether house prices would just head back up to the stratosphere in short order.

> at which point you do have to wonder whether house prices would just head back up to the stratosphere in short order Not sure why you're assuming they'd ever come back from the stratosphere in the first place. All another rate cut would do is untether housing prices entirely from earth's gravitational field, as they disappear into space, like the prospect of homeownership for most people.

And then you have to wonder how long young Canadians will stay in the country, when better prospects can be had nearly anywhere else. Japan? Their housing costs have been falling for decades. How about almost anywhere in the USA? If you seek a high degree of social welfare, go to Finland.

Canada is broken for young people. They should leave.

Re: Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

#89

Post by ppeetteerr »

reducesuffering wrote: post #80
ppeetteerr wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having lived in Boston, I can say that the city is way overpriced. You may argue that rent is in line with what people are willing to pay for it and that may be true. However, the city is failing its residents who have no protection against unreasonable increases (due to a state law) and new development is nowhere near strong enough. At least in cities like SF, Honolulu, and NYC you trade affordability for hire wages…

Boston area price is easy to explain. A place doesn't need to be the #1 in any category, if it has a good mix of all of those. Boston area ranks high quality of life by any metric. Lower crime, high education, strong economy, history, sports, architecture, walkability/transit, etc. Even the weather is probably preferable on avg. when you have almost half the country in the Midwest and Texas.

I would argue that it's just okay. You're right about being safe, tho. Man, the US is violent.

Re: Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

#90

Post by [deleted] »

mapt wrote: post #84
jabbany wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm assuming OP means a pizza restaurant not a factory? Not a restaurant owner but I'm curious how a pizza place consistently sells 15 pizzas/hour @ 8 hours a day... let alone more More likely what's going to happen is you have "bursty" rush times where you need more people to scale up and dead times where you have minimal sales?

Pizza places are the factories of foodservice; Competitive, assembly line operations, feed a lot of people every night from a shoebox form factor with little or no seating, very low margin by comparison to other foodservice sectors. The cheese is most of the cost of your slice, and you'll have a hard time beating these prices at home. https://thinktank.pmq.com/t/how-many-pizzas-per-labour-hour/... "With 2 Edge60 oven…

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