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Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

jdawiseman.com

231–240 of 316 posts

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So, in real financial markets, all the arbitrage games etc. [2] at least support actual productive purposes. So without all those games, what would be substantially different?

By referring to arbitrage as “games” OP’s comment has poisoned the well for this entire chain of responses. So to get an understanding, first we need to fix. A “game” implies non-productive or zero sum. By definition, an arbitrage is not that. Any arbitrage is the result of an inefficiency in prices or the economy. When someone arbitrages prices back to where they should be, they are performing a service that everyon…

Most of the pricing inefficiency comes from information asymmetry. It might have made sense a 100 years ago when information traveled slowly. But in today's world, it travels fast. But still there is asymmetry due to purposeful obfuscation and complex packaging.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#232
Question about the "Yields of Australian Commonwealth government bonds as of 21 January 2000" graph in Chapter 2 (page 13 of the A4 version):

The y-axis (Yield in percent) values don't seem to match the data points. For example, the point for Feb '01 is labelled '7%' but the point is just above the 6% mark and well below the 6.5%. What am I not understanding?

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#233
post #202
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The default should be the government doesn't do things Right, but taking this in the opposite direction then, why for public interest things should the default of 'people who just want to buy the next yacht' run them good?

because they can only buy that yacht _if_ they ran it good!

[flagged]

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#234
post #218

All these Financial guides are very interesting. But beware of falling into the illusion of being a good-enough active investor. It's like entering the Pro league as an overconfident amateur. The other players are the best in the universe. And they have cybernetic extensions: algorithmic trading with virtually limitless amounts of resources and information. And sometimes they have "alpha" you'll never, ever get your…

Agreed, strongly. Which is why the online edition has some “Cautionary words”:

> Pricing Money is a beginner’s guide: it says so in big letters on the front cover. I believe it to be an excellent beginner’s guide — presumably many authors believe their own books to be excellent — but, being a beginner’s guide, it will not immediately make you a world-renowned expert.

> It was written around the turn of the pedant’s millennium. In some parts it shows its age. It has been slightly freshened by the addition of green-boxed updates, but these have been written very concisely, more to point to developments than to explain them fully.

> Please do learn from and be informed by Pricing Money. But also be cautious: it is not enough to make you a world-renowned expert; it does not list the many details that are both dull and necessary; some things have changed since it was written; it cannot be your risk manager.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#235

Question about the "Yields of Australian Commonwealth government bonds as of 21 January 2000" graph in Chapter 2 (page 13 of the A4 version): The y-axis (Yield in percent) values don't seem to match the data points. For example, the point for Feb '01 is labelled '7%' but the point is just above the 6% mark and well below the 6.5%. What am I not understanding?

That's the coupon, rather than the yield.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#236
post #235

Question about the "Yields of Australian Commonwealth government bonds as of 21 January 2000" graph in Chapter 2 (page 13 of the A4 version): The y-axis (Yield in percent) values don't seem to match the data points. For example, the point for Feb '01 is labelled '7%' but the point is just above the 6% mark and well below the 6.5%. What am I not understanding?

That's the coupon, rather than the yield.

Ah, thank you!

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the solution to that is fintech and regulation, not crypto Why? Now we have a trustless, decentralized, tech solution, why do you still want the "guys with guns" solution?

Because whilst crypto provides an excellent solution for the "how to skim money from the economy by persuading less skilled investors to give you money" part of finance, it doesn't address the actual problems finance purports to solve like sending capital to its most productive use, maturity transformation, insurance, pensions etc.

It's the same application layer just running in a different tech and social stack.

It's clear why the current gatekeepers don't like permissionless alternatives, but why do you agree with them?

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#238
post #85

This is an excellent resource and a great read, but DAMN do money markets seem stupid as all get out to me. Where is the productive output of all these arbitrage shell games? How is this more than an abysmal waste of time and resources simply to make a small handful of bankers richer?

I’m the author. Thank you for saying it is an excellent read — that was no small amount of work. You ask “Where is the productive output of all these arbitrage shell games?”, which is a very fair question. The purpose of financial markets, sometimes but not always wholly achieved, is to transfer risks to those best able to hold them. E.g., you are not the optimal person to hold the risk that, through no fault of your…

I think you did a great job of explaining why someone might want each of these products, starting from first principles of "a company borrows some money from its bank". To still ask GP's question is either to not have understood the book, or to not understand any scenario where one might want to lend or borrow money.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#239
post #151
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m the author. Thank you for saying it is an excellent read — that was no small amount of work. You ask “Where is the productive output of all these arbitrage shell games?”, which is a very fair question. The purpose of financial markets, sometimes but not always wholly achieved, is to transfer risks to those best able to hold them. E.g., you are not the optimal person to hold the risk that, through no fault of your…

> The purpose of financial markets, sometimes but not always wholly achieved, is to transfer risks to those best able to hold them. That is just one of the purposes; others are: - time-shifting of consumption: borrow when you study or build a house, then invest and save during work years, then live of retirement portfolio - maturity transformation enabling investment: extra cash goes in the bank (and can be redeemed…

I was nodding my head along (fantastic answer) until the stab at crypto.

Let me offer a (partial) defense of crypto if I can:

Broadly, crypto is divided into crypto-currencies and applications.

Let's tackled currencies first, some of which some are reputable and some of which are grifts, but which viewed in their most favorable light attempt to be a form of currency or asset that is decentralized. This means that no single party may unilateraly devalue them, or restrict their trade in any way.

(No I understand if that doesn't excite a lot of people, but this is clearly valued by some people!)

As may be obvious, crypto-currencies are too volatile to serve as actual "currencies", so they are at best "assets". But it is possible to use these assets as collateral for the minting of stablecoins. I'm not sure this is quite risk transfer, but it essentially relies on the willingness of some to hold speculative assets to enable the creation of a stable assets.

In turn, these assets are not typically useless — they hold value because there is demand for them to pay for transaction costs on blockchain.

Blockchains themselves are not useless. We may not think much of the difficulties of transferring money, but it is a real challenge in LARGE swaths of the world, where people are unbanked or live under tyrannical governments. I would argue that even in the west, the need becomes is becoming more pressing (Trudeau freezing trucker supporter bank accounts, banks imposing tons of restriction on cash withdrawals and "large" bank transfers).

Beyond transfer, they also serve to run decentralized applications. People are quick to dismiss those, and true it doesn't enable to do anything dazzingly new. It simply enables you to do things you could already do, but in a way where no single party (or even colluding parties) can shut it down. This may seem silly, but I think the world would truly be better if we for instance had a YouTube where copyright trolls couldn't strike down / demonetize legimate content.

Applications then. In reality, we're still far from decentralized YouTube (but we will get there). Most applications today are financial. And I think they're quite useful. The financial infrastructure being built is genuinely novel and useful.

The problem is that it is navel-gazing at the moment: that infrastructure is mostly used to perform financial operations on crypto tokens themselves. But there is no reason that they couldn't be used for other assets.

In fact this is starting to happen: you can now invest in real estate and US treasuries on the blockchain. We're still a way from mainstream adoption, and that has mostly to do with legal uncertainties that prevents established players from diving in (though many of them are experimenting). There are also entrenched interests there, it must be said.

So if anything else, crypto helps build a better financial infrastructure.

It's somewhat ridiculous that when you buy some stock, the trade is routed through three intermediaries and is only really settled 7 days later. The abstraction on top of this is actually leaky, with each intermediary coming with some risk and some agency to throw a wrench in the works. As in fact happened between Robinhood and its clearinghouse (or some such intermediary) during the GameStop frenzy.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#240
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please point me to this law. Unless you are in a mortgage, no law requires you to hold homeowner’s insurance, and you can absolutely self-insure, to my knowledge. The same is not true for auto insurance in most states, though most also have an option to self-insure by putting up collateral.

There may not be a law explicitly stating you have to have homeowner's insurance. But. Without such insurance, specifically the "injury liability type" with its limits; then if someone gets injured on your property there may be no limit to your liability. So even people who could afford the loss buy insurance because it is the best method of limiting intangible risks.

> there may be no limit to your liability.

You can put the house into a limited liability company, which theory should limit the liability to the value of the house.

Depending on whether director negligence was involved etcetera.

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