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Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

jdawiseman.com

191–200 of 316 posts

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#191
post #116
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m the author. Thank you for saying it is an excellent read — that was no small amount of work. You ask “Where is the productive output of all these arbitrage shell games?”, which is a very fair question. The purpose of financial markets, sometimes but not always wholly achieved, is to transfer risks to those best able to hold them. E.g., you are not the optimal person to hold the risk that, through no fault of your…

I like how this guy has written two books on completely different subjects - Money and Wine

One could easily make the argument these are actually extremely closely linked.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#192
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The purpose of financial markets, sometimes but not always wholly achieved, is to transfer risks to those best able to hold them. That is just one of the purposes; others are: - time-shifting of consumption: borrow when you study or build a house, then invest and save during work years, then live of retirement portfolio - maturity transformation enabling investment: extra cash goes in the bank (and can be redeemed…

> But the solution to that is fintech and regulation, not crypto Why? Now we have a trustless, decentralized, tech solution, why do you still want the "guys with guns" solution?

There is no such thing as trustless

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#194

World government debt went from 5T at the beginning of the XXI century to about 305T today. Is this sustainable?

Isn't this the same discussion of infinite growth versus the ceiling of finite resources.

It is logically not possible might take 20 years or 700 years but eventually a ceiling is reached.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#195

World government debt went from 5T at the beginning of the XXI century to about 305T today. Is this sustainable?

Isn't this the same discussion of infinite growth versus the ceiling of finite resources. It is logically not possible might take 20 years or 700 years but eventually a ceiling is reached.

Growth doesn't require more resources. If your barber finds a way to cut your hair 10% faster, that shows up in GDP growth. Increasing efficiency leads to increased GDP.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The arbitrage game keeps the prices consistent with each other. It serves to create liquidity so that participants can get their business done without either waiting too long or paying too much.

Maybe this is a dumb question, but who are the participants? What is the business they need to get done? What are they waiting on?

The participants are time-and-space separated buyers and sellers of

- Commodities like wheat, barley, cows, coal, electricity and so on

- Money itself, in which case we call this lending and borrowing

- Money for other money, commonly called currency transaction

- Ownership stakes in companies, aka shares

- Contingent claims like options and futures on the above

Say you want to build a factory to make cars. That's going to cost something, and you want to share the risk with the public.

- When you IPO this company, you get a bunch of money from the buyers of your shares. The owners of the shares, why do they bother? They don't just get all the profits of the company like if they owned a restaurant. They don't control the car factory, they leave that to the management, including how much of the profits are paid out. What if they need the money, despite everyone thinking the company has good prospects? Enter the secondary market, what we normally call the stock market. Here you can find other people who want the shares you don't want, and will give you money today for your shares, even if the company hasn't made a dime yet.

- You have plans with the 10B from the IPO, but not right this day. If there were a money market you could gather some interest until the bill for the factory comes. Some other business needs to make payroll with their receivables a couple of weeks later. You just need to match with them somehow.

- When you start selling cars, you find that a lot of people don't have 50K in cash. Not to worry, you hand these people their cars anyway, and you make a financing plan where they pay for the car with money that they owe you. Now you have a bunch of loans from people, but you can't use the IOUs to expand your factory. What do you do? You find someone to forward you some actual cash on the expectation that the car buyer will eventually give you the money for the car. You just need a market to find this person with the opposite need to you.

- You might sell cars in other countries. If your factory is not in that country, your expenses will be mismatched. If only there was someone out there willing to swap all the Euros you got from selling cars in Europe for your Dollars that you use to pay your workers. It happens that there are other companies in America expanding to Europe needing Euros for their local offices, and having only dollar income. How to find them?

So what happens then? Who is going to match all these different interests? The answer is market makers. Basically people who know that there are clients whose interests match. Your basic middle man who stands there when the farmer comes in, buys the grain, and then waits for the restaurant guy to come in, and sells them. That way they don't need to meet at the same time and place, and they don't need to match exactly.

Not matching exactly brings us to contingent claims. If everyone just transacted everything in the exact right quantities, that would be nice for the market maker. He'd just take a spread on everything and sleep comfortably. But that's not what happens and supply and demand change, and prices change. In fact prices can change a lot, and you might need some sort of deal where you can buy or sell something, but only if the price is at some particular level. Or you might want to buy or sell something definitely, but not right now, only at some time in the future. This whole derivative game allows people to move risks around in order to match their changing balance of buyers and sellers.

I haven't even added speculators yet, but that's the start of a "who/why markets" answer.

EDIT. I know people will ask next. What does any of this very nice sounding imaginary world of completely explicable financial needs have to do with arbitrage?

The answer is liquidity aggregation on similar products, and liquidity spreading by interaction of participants.

Let's say there's a market to borrow money for each year in the future, eg 2024, 2025, 2026, and so on. Some guy decides he needs to borrow money for 2025 to build a factory. As a market maker, that's fine, but hey wait a minute. There's nobody I know who wants to lend in 2025. What do I do? I have this guy who wants to lend in 2024 and a guy who wants to lend in 2026. Hey, maybe I can just do all these deals, paying me a spread? My books will be slightly off balance, but don't interest rates basically move up and down together? Let's do it and deal with the mismatch later. So now these related markets are connected. They are sort of one large pool of liquidity, but still their own separate pools since there is still some difference.

This is a loose arbitrage. You're not guaranteed to make money on it, since rates can move the wrong way for you. But this is also the most common arbitrage, the one where you sort-of hedge your book against similar things and hope the imbalance falls out eventually.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#197
post #176
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m the author. Thank you for saying it is an excellent read — that was no small amount of work. You ask “Where is the productive output of all these arbitrage shell games?”, which is a very fair question. The purpose of financial markets, sometimes but not always wholly achieved, is to transfer risks to those best able to hold them. E.g., you are not the optimal person to hold the risk that, through no fault of your…

I would love to hear your opinion on Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. Did they deserve their fate on equal terms and also in retrospect who should have been the optimal holder of their risks?

> who should have been the optimal holder of their risks?

they _produced_ more risk (by holding long maturity bonds that lose value as interest rate grows). This risk was not something that is inherent - they could've chosen not to do that with the large deposits from the pandemic money growth.

There's noone who can be the optimal holder of the risk that is produced this way, because there's no value on the other end - SVB is taking the full value already (the interest payments on said long bonds).

If someone were to hold that risk, SVB would have to pay out premiums that would surpass the interest income they receive.

The alternative is for society (aka, the central bank) to hold that risk. But this just means socializing the losses but privatizing the gains - something i'm very much against.

In the end, SVB was the optimal holder of the risk (that they produced for themselves). And they can't actually hold that risk - thus their failure.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this the same discussion of infinite growth versus the ceiling of finite resources. It is logically not possible might take 20 years or 700 years but eventually a ceiling is reached.

Growth doesn't require more resources. If your barber finds a way to cut your hair 10% faster, that shows up in GDP growth. Increasing efficiency leads to increased GDP.

But there is still a limit that will be reached. If a barber cuts your hair in 0 seconds, there is no more room to improve.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#199

World government debt went from 5T at the beginning of the XXI century to about 305T today. Is this sustainable?

Thinking in nominal values is rookie mistake.

You must think in terms of ratios, or not think at all. Debt-to-GDP ratio is a good measure that takes into an account most other variables like changes in population, productivity etc.

Re: Pricing Money: A beginner's guide to money, bonds, futures and swaps

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that is not exactly "productive", isn't it? After all, risk was not eliminated, only redistributed. Productive output, e.g., would be something that reduces the chance of your house catching fire.

This is exactly the why and how of "travel broadens the mind". You only have to visit countries and socities that do not have well-developed financial markets to directly see and appreciate the value financial markets bring to your own society. Visit a part of the world where most people do not have access to home loans, health insurance etc. and you will not have to ask how mere redistribution of risk and capital ad…

> socities that do not have well-developed financial markets to directly see and appreciate the value financial markets

Which is true, but there's another angle that needs discussing - that of a high-trust society vs low-trust society.

In all places where there are well functioning financial markets, there exists a high trust society. This trust is the foundation on which the financial markets exist.

So in poorer countries where such financial markets don't exist (or don't serve the people), it's not because they've chose not to have it, but that individual actors cannot trust that the system is fair and is rules based. So the problem isn't the lack of financial markets (which is a symptom), but that of a lack of good governance (bad or non-existant laws, corruption etc).

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