Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

Post by 8bitsrule » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 1:02 AM UTC

mjhay wrote: post #57

I think it's telling that none of the authors are geophysicists, and they definitely aren't statisticians either. The causality they're claiming just does not have any physical plausibility. > Dr. Homola states, “In the scientific world, it is accepted that a discovery can be said to have been made when the statistical confidence level of the corroborating data reaches five sigma, or standard deviations.” > Homola co…

Post by jvanderbot » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 1:05 AM UTC

musicale wrote: post #169

jvanderbot wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Precursor signals for earthquakes is a field that has about as much credibility as astrology, from the few conversations I've had with professional geologists and planetary scientists. I had a minor and short-lived role in designing a sensor network that might be useful for these kinds of low-signal, high-noise precursors, and I got nothing but strange looks from actual geologists.

> as much credibility as astrology If this sort of scientific astrology ends up providing precursor signals for future earthquakes, why would geologists have a problem with it?

Post by deepsun » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 1:08 AM UTC

sbierwagen wrote: post #127

01100011 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or there's a common trigger event, like, say, a large gravitational wave or a passing cloud of weakly interacting matter(dark matter?) which triggers both increased cosmic ray emissions along with earthquakes. Not that I believe any of this, but it seems we're just pulling stuff out of our asses so I figured I'd give it a shot.

>gravity wave LIGO, the gravity wave detecting interferometer, has arms 4 kilometers long. Along that distance, it can detect a change in length one ten thousandth the diameter of a proton. With an instrument that sensitive, it can just barely detect a handful of gravity waves a year, out of the thousands? that occur in the observable universe. Gravity waves are subtle things.

Post by fnordpiglet » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 1:18 AM UTC

idlewords wrote: post #6

The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…

Post by jvanderbot » Sat, Jun 17, 2023, 1:25 AM UTC

musicale wrote: post #178

jvanderbot wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're assuming an a priori bias. Astrology didn't lose favor because of some societal decree, it lost favor because it had no predictive power. It seems to be the same with analysis of precursor signals, and the subfield apparently went a little nuts and started to sound like quackery and data fudging.

Were geologists skeptical of the actual data from your sensor network?