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Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

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Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#21

Post by idlewords »

hammock wrote: post #8
idlewords wrote: post #6

The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…

if the mechanism is true, could this information be used by humans to control earthquakes? There have always been a lot of theories around projects like HAARP that have the capability to send a lot of energy deep into the earth.

Pumping lots of water into the ground is a pretty reliable way to get earthquakes. Notice that Oklahoma, which used to be seismically inert, is now a bright red spot on the USGS map of the United States. This is due almost entirely to petrochemical-related human activity.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#22

Post by mrb »

idlewords wrote: post #16
olivermarks wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is 'sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that then kick off earthquakes' a loopy idea? We are hours away from coronal mass ejection catastrophe right now as solar cycle 20 builds in intensity. It seems reasonable to me that the complex relationship between the moon's gravitational pull and massive sun activity could affect our tiny little planet

The idea is loopy because the energy that reaches the earth from even a massive solar flare is orders of magnitude less than the energy released by a major earthquake, and that is orders of magnitudes less than the energies that drive the dynamo in the Earth's core. It's possible for a falling leaf to hit a mountain in just such a way that it dislodges a boulder balanced on top, but you need to tell a pretty compelli…

Tectonic plates are nearly permanently in a "sensitive arrangement", as you say. Compressive, shear, and tensional stress is the normal. Plates accumulate more and more stress over time, until a small trigger causes the plates to slip and release all that energy at once (earthquake).

In other words, tectonic plates are nearly permanently in a state similar to a boulder delicately balanced on top of a mountain.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#23

Post by csharpminor »

It's funny, I remember talking to an engineer from JPL(?) at a fundraiser in Palo Alto who was convinced of this link back in 2011. The conversation really stuck with me because in truth, I wasn't sure if this was a wishful conspiracy theory or cutting-edge science.

If my recollection serves correctly they were unable to get arrive at a good enough level of specificity to actually feel comfortable predicting an earthquake.

These cosmic ray events happened with enough regularity (and didn't result in earthquakes) that there was a legitimate concern about creating paranoia.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#24

Post by hughw »

mrb wrote: post #22
idlewords wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea is loopy because the energy that reaches the earth from even a massive solar flare is orders of magnitude less than the energy released by a major earthquake, and that is orders of magnitudes less than the energies that drive the dynamo in the Earth's core. It's possible for a falling leaf to hit a mountain in just such a way that it dislodges a boulder balanced on top, but you need to tell a pretty compelli…

Tectonic plates are nearly permanently in a "sensitive arrangement", as you say. Compressive, shear, and tensional stress is the normal. Plates accumulate more and more stress over time, until a small trigger causes the plates to slip and release all that energy at once (earthquake). In other words, tectonic plates are nearly permanently in a state similar to a boulder delicately balanced on top of a mountain.

Right, the potential energy due to stress in the crust could be released to kinetic energy by a falling feather or some cosmic rays, would be the idea. There doesn't need to be the same energy in cosmic rays as released by the earthquake.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#26

Post by jcims »

idlewords wrote: post #16
olivermarks wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is 'sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that then kick off earthquakes' a loopy idea? We are hours away from coronal mass ejection catastrophe right now as solar cycle 20 builds in intensity. It seems reasonable to me that the complex relationship between the moon's gravitational pull and massive sun activity could affect our tiny little planet

The idea is loopy because the energy that reaches the earth from even a massive solar flare is orders of magnitude less than the energy released by a major earthquake, and that is orders of magnitudes less than the energies that drive the dynamo in the Earth's core. It's possible for a falling leaf to hit a mountain in just such a way that it dislodges a boulder balanced on top, but you need to tell a pretty compelli…

A 4oz pull that moves a trigger a small faction of an inch can release a thousand foot pounds of energy.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#27

Post by IG_Semmelweiss »

idlewords wrote: post #16
olivermarks wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is 'sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that then kick off earthquakes' a loopy idea? We are hours away from coronal mass ejection catastrophe right now as solar cycle 20 builds in intensity. It seems reasonable to me that the complex relationship between the moon's gravitational pull and massive sun activity could affect our tiny little planet

The idea is loopy because the energy that reaches the earth from even a massive solar flare is orders of magnitude less than the energy released by a major earthquake, and that is orders of magnitudes less than the energies that drive the dynamo in the Earth's core. It's possible for a falling leaf to hit a mountain in just such a way that it dislodges a boulder balanced on top, but you need to tell a pretty compelli…

I think you can relate this to the dynamics of a Prince Rupert's drop.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#29

Post by olivermarks »

flangola7 wrote: post #18
olivermarks wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is 'sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that then kick off earthquakes' a loopy idea? We are hours away from coronal mass ejection catastrophe right now as solar cycle 20 builds in intensity. It seems reasonable to me that the complex relationship between the moon's gravitational pull and massive sun activity could affect our tiny little planet

Catastrophe as in many possible earthquakes, if the hypothesis is correct?

>Catastrophe as in many possible earthquakes, if the hypothesis is correct?

No, wiping out the entire electrical grid and all electronics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#30

Post by heyjamesknight »

jcims wrote: post #26
idlewords wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea is loopy because the energy that reaches the earth from even a massive solar flare is orders of magnitude less than the energy released by a major earthquake, and that is orders of magnitudes less than the energies that drive the dynamo in the Earth's core. It's possible for a falling leaf to hit a mountain in just such a way that it dislodges a boulder balanced on top, but you need to tell a pretty compelli…

A 4oz pull that moves a trigger a small faction of an inch can release a thousand foot pounds of energy.

Yes, but we're talking about a system in which thousands of 4oz pulls are happening in different directions at any given moment. You model doesn't only have to explain why a particular pull triggered it, but also why the other thousand didn't.

Throwing a cocked handgun into the dryer is different than a leaf falling on it.

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