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Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

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Re: Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

#91

Post by cmrdporcupine »

swader999 wrote: post #8

What happened in Alberta was just a couple weeks of warm weather after a fairly cold winter. The timing was right when new growth hadn't had a chance to take hold so all the dry grass and tinder was perfect fuel. The rap attack helicopter crews were dismantled in both BC and Alberta to save a few millions at best. Easily doubled the size of the burn area not having this capability. This is normal but not new. Alberta…

"Just a couple weeks of warm weather" is precisely the problem though; it's hot dry weather at a time of year when this historically does not happen. The problem is that the statistical variance of events is going crazy. It's not that there's some sudden break and the temperatures are unilaterally higher, it's that the plot drawing the standard deviation in temperatures (and precipitation) now looks much crazier than it did in the past, and this leads to this kind of unpredictable situation with severe consequences.

And so we'll continue to have "plausible deniability" among some of the corelation of any of these things to climate change, despite the statistical modeling so clearly showing that they're tied together. No sane person is saying we're only getting forest fires because of climate change. We're saying forest fires are incrementally more frequent or severe or unpredictable because of it.

I grew up in the 70s and 80s in one of the areas (Parkland County) that had severe fires this year, and this is not an area traditionally affected directly by this scale of fire.

My parents live 5 minutes from a town that was evacuated (Entwistle). Some people in their church had their whole house & barn incinerated. It's not a remote highly forested area, it's heavily settled and a mix of farmland and some wooded areas and bush.

In my childwood did we didn't have April and May temperatures like this. In fact, summer time... July, August... temperatures rarely went above 25c-28c, let alone up into near 30c with no precipitation in the end of April.

Snow was on the ground often into last week of April at least. And often still is.

Further west on HWy 16, Edson, Hinton, and down in David Thomson country, and the areas in the eastern foothills, sure, that's always had fairly high fire risk. But what is unique about this spring is the way these fires were brought much closer to settled areas, and how they occurred so early in the season.

Re: Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

#92

Post by andyjohnson0 »

pif wrote: post #78
Levitz wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The subtext under the headline seems direct enough: >When it comes to the climate crisis, new normals convey a single, grim message: instead of acting, get used to it The idea is to stop calling things "The new normal" since that implies acceptance. Fight instead. Don't go along with the idea that the world has to be like this.

Concerning climate change, the world is going to be like this. All models are clear that global warming cannot be reversed. No "turning green" will lower average temperatures enough in our lifetime. Thus, acceptance is capital, because only acceptance of reality can lead to sensible solutions. As a side note, screaming "It's too late: hurry up!" is really an idiot way to advocate your cause, whatever your cause may b…

> All models are clear that global warming cannot be reversed. No "turning green" will lower average temperatures enough in our lifetime.

Thats factually correct, but also kind of a strawman. The objective at this point is not to reverse climate change, but to stop it getting much, much worse.

Re: Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

#93

Post by letsawaytoday »

tourmalinetaco wrote: post #79
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that the 'new normal' is lulling people into 'doing nothing'. The 'do Y' is, simply take action to be better. Whatever it is. Each X needs a different Y. So go do Y for that particular problem, instead of nothing. How can this one author tell you what to do for every problem outlined. The point is to stop doing nothing.

The problem is that any good I, as an individual, can produce is far outweighed by the damage a multi-trillion dollar businesses can cause. This isn’t to say that individuals should do nothing, this is to say we need to deconstruct and limit those who actively harm the environment, starting from the largest and working down.

[flagged]

Re: Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

#94

Post by ravenstine »

perfunctory wrote: post #16

Too bad the author is not offering any alternative. It's not good enough to just say "stop doing X". It would be nice if it's followed by "Do Y instead". Maybe I missed it, but the only thing I found in the whole article that resembles a counterproposal is a single sentence in the end - "... policy flows from conversation and debate instead of force." So we are supposed to have more conversation and debate? Sounds li…

Why must there be an alternative? There's no utility in communicating "this is the new normal" other than to persuade others in a prescriptive manner. It's completely unnecessary unless one has some ulterior motive.

It's the new normal, bro. Get with it. What are you, stuck in the past? /s

Re: Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

#95

Post by zokier »

tourmalinetaco wrote: post #79
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that the 'new normal' is lulling people into 'doing nothing'. The 'do Y' is, simply take action to be better. Whatever it is. Each X needs a different Y. So go do Y for that particular problem, instead of nothing. How can this one author tell you what to do for every problem outlined. The point is to stop doing nothing.

The problem is that any good I, as an individual, can produce is far outweighed by the damage a multi-trillion dollar businesses can cause. This isn’t to say that individuals should do nothing, this is to say we need to deconstruct and limit those who actively harm the environment, starting from the largest and working down.

Vast majority of those businesses ultimately serve consumers in one way or another. Some are deeper in the supply chain networks than others, but still you shouldn't pretend that industy somehow exists as completely isolated sector.

Re: Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

#96

Post by letsawaytoday »

op00to wrote: post #85
bequanna wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These weather patterns aren’t new or all that strange. This set of conditions periodically occur over time. The difference is that now people have hyper awareness of uncommon but normal weather events. Cue confirmation bias.

The Omega Block is a "strange" weather pattern compared to the usual configuration of the jet stream. It is unusual and surprising. I didn't say it was new, rare, or uprecedented. It's possible for a weather event to be "normal" (something we see from time to time) but also triggered or more likely ehanced by anthropogenic climage change. Hurricanes aren't anything new, and devastating hurricanes earlier and later in…

[flagged]

Re: Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

#97

Post by ravenstine »

pif wrote: post #78
Levitz wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The subtext under the headline seems direct enough: >When it comes to the climate crisis, new normals convey a single, grim message: instead of acting, get used to it The idea is to stop calling things "The new normal" since that implies acceptance. Fight instead. Don't go along with the idea that the world has to be like this.

Concerning climate change, the world is going to be like this. All models are clear that global warming cannot be reversed. No "turning green" will lower average temperatures enough in our lifetime. Thus, acceptance is capital, because only acceptance of reality can lead to sensible solutions. As a side note, screaming "It's too late: hurry up!" is really an idiot way to advocate your cause, whatever your cause may b…

That's metaphorically like stepping on the gas and the brakes at the same time.

If we really believe we need the masses to reach a level of acceptance in order to reach sensible conclusions, perhaps that whole step could be bypassed by doing away with the frequent alarmism and "i fucking love science" attitude in the first place.

Re: Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

#98

Post by CalRobert »

swader999 wrote: post #38
spywaregorilla wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Accelerating

But it hasn't. Sea level rise and extreme weather events are not on an accelerating trend. Hurricanes for example. Fires in the twenties and forties were much worse. North America is greener now more than ever in the last two hundred years.

"Between 1901 and 2018, the average global sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), or 1–2 mm per year.[1] This rate is increasing; sea levels are now rising at a rate of 3.7 mm (0.146 inches) per year.[2] "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise

sources are 1: IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers

2: IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers

seems credible?

Re: Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

#99

Post by YawningAngel »

pif wrote: post #78
Levitz wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The subtext under the headline seems direct enough: >When it comes to the climate crisis, new normals convey a single, grim message: instead of acting, get used to it The idea is to stop calling things "The new normal" since that implies acceptance. Fight instead. Don't go along with the idea that the world has to be like this.

Concerning climate change, the world is going to be like this. All models are clear that global warming cannot be reversed. No "turning green" will lower average temperatures enough in our lifetime. Thus, acceptance is capital, because only acceptance of reality can lead to sensible solutions. As a side note, screaming "It's too late: hurry up!" is really an idiot way to advocate your cause, whatever your cause may b…

> As a side note, screaming "It's too late: hurry up!" is really an idiot way to advocate your cause, whatever your cause may be.

Is it? It can simultaneously be true that we have been too slow to avoid very concerning outcomes, and also that the best course of action open to us is to act quickly and decisively

Re: Stop Calling Each New Disaster “The New Normal”

#100

Post by Izkata »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #42
derefr wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would "convincing people to take the bus instead of a car" require coordinated action? Just stop letting them buy gas. (Where by "them" I mean individual passenger-vehicle drivers. Continue to allow commercial vehicles to buy gas, but require that they show their commercial-vehicle license at the register.) A country could do it; or it could be done city by city with municipal bylaws to act only upon the worst po…

Just stop letting them buy gas? That would take either: - That companies (plural) stop selling gas. That's coordinated action, because you need all the oil companies (or all the gas stations) to agree. - That the government decides it. But in a democracy, that takes coordinated action too. The president does not have the constitutional authority to decree "no more sales of gasoline for passenger vehicles".

> That the government decides it. But in a democracy, that takes coordinated action too. The president does not have the constitutional authority to decree "no more sales of gasoline for passenger vehicles".

California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Washington are going for it: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/states-banning-new-gas-po...

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