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First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

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Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#741

Post by autoexec »

Pyramus wrote: post #628
scrollaway wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The earliest strains of Covid were by far the most severe ones. It's not that surprising to me that the very first patients contracted a strain more likely to put them in the hospital. The severity also depends a lot on viral load.

> The earliest strains of Covid were by far the most severe ones. It's not that surprising to me that the very first patients contracted a strain more likely to put them in the hospital. No, the only SARS-Cov-2 strain with (likely) decreased mortality is Omicron, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 The fact that Covid (as an illness) has become milder is due to the hosts adapting, not the virus b…

Not only the hosts, but also the hospitals. Treatments became available, and we learned what worked well and what didn't. The care a person who is infected today gets is very different from what people in the first months of the pandemic got and that's improved outcomes.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#742

Post by mmcwilliams »

harry8 wrote: post #696
mmcwilliams wrote: post #679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claiming that a private company with significant investment in it has "owners" is not controversial. It's unclear to me why this bothers you so much. This isn't intended as an attack on Taibbi whatsoever, it is just plain wrong to say that a for-profit company funded by some of the largest SV funds is not an owned entity. You can make the case that because Substack writers do not have an editorial process and fact ch…

Taibbi is paid by his subscribers. The end. He's not influenced by the vendors of his pen or his pc or any of his other suppliers. Each of those supplier companies has owners and nobody need care. If substack the company don't like his writing and try /anything/ at all, he takes _his_ business away from substack. Substack work for Taibbi. Taibbi is the customer. Substack have as much influence on the stories he repor…

You're making the claim that Substack is making no money on the subscriptions? And that the infrastructure they provide to process these subscriptions is completely decoupled from their company to the point that if they banned a writers account their subscribers are totally portable? This is an impressive feat, if true.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#743

Post by kcplate »

dent9876543 wrote: post #718
iudqnolq wrote: post #717

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He falls into the class of writers who claims to lean left but in the past years has actually been a pretty obvious supporter of the right. This is a transparent yet effective schtick - for some reason people never question the framing of "even so-and-so is willing to call out their own side".

Since COVID, I find the who left and right thing hugely confusing. I used to identify as left, and would still do that, except that what passed for left-leaning news during COVID became nothing more than propaganda, and left-leaning journalist put their investigative and sceptical credentials to one side. During COVID, and still perhaps even now, it turns out you can become a member of the far right, just by staying…

> Since COVID, I find the who left and right thing hugely confusing.

There really seem to be some strange shifts recently in the US where the democrats have become quite a bit more hawkish and intolerant of alternative opinions than I have ever seen before in my lifetime.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#744

Post by kcplate »

lamontcg wrote: post #713
kcplate wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn’t have anything early (I’ve never caught it despite multiple direct exposures, but I rarely get sick from anything anyway), but both my wife and son-in-law came back from separate business trips in late January/early Feb 2020 with all the classic symptoms. Both subsequently caught Covid in 2022 and both described the experience as very similar to their 2020 experiences. No way to know for sure if it was Covid…

late Jan / early Feb becomes more possible. there was certainly cryptic spread by then that was happening over airplane travel. both of them getting it would be unlikely though unless both of them were in china or italy or had contact with people from there. but you simply cannot diagnose covid just via symptoms. every symptom that covid causes can be caused by other respiratory viruses, covid just makes it more like…

Oh certainly could have been another respiratory ailment, but the abundance of coincidence to timing, symptoms (which were quite severe), and a general assumption that it’s not over here just make me skeptical of claims that “it couldn’t be covid because…”

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#745

Post by Apofis »

ricksunny wrote: post #635
letmevoteplease wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You won't have to wait long for confirmation. The Director of National Intelligence will be required by law to declassify information about the infected researchers on June 18th, including their names, symptoms, date of onset and role at WIV.[1] [1] https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/619...

Assuming DNI chooses to divulge that tidbit formally. Per Biden's published interpretation of that law, they can withhold anything on grounds of 'national security' (note not the narrower 'sources and methods' scope). https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases... What could 'national security' be construed as? : https://twitter.com/gdemaneuf/status/1669165325722722306?t=M...

National Security being anything that can be deemed dangerous to the Executive Branch. A very broad stroke these days, that's even used to paint opposing politicians by both parties.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#746

Post by kcplate »

iudqnolq wrote: post #717
kcplate wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taibbi is clearly a partisan hack that only attacks one side, ever. You should probably expand your reading to his articles in Rolling Stone, particularly those from 4-5 years ago. You would not say “ever” if you did that. But…for a writer that admittedly leans left in his politics, he is willing to call out that side when a story leads there. He is much like Glenn Greenwald in that respect. Both he and Glenn get a…

He falls into the class of writers who claims to lean left but in the past years has actually been a pretty obvious supporter of the right. This is a transparent yet effective schtick - for some reason people never question the framing of "even so-and-so is willing to call out their own side".

I think you might be over generalizing “the right”. He certainly aligns on specific things with the right, but not everything—only where there is common overlap to his personal politics. Same as on the left…

It’s ok to be on a “side” and still be critical of that side. No one would rightly accuse Bill Maher or Jimmy Dore of being conservatives, but they are damn sure critical of certain perspectives as of late of the American left.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#747

Post by tripletao »

dekhn wrote: post #739
tripletao wrote: post #728

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely not. But if you just want to hold up credentials, then David Baltimore seems pretty convinced that SARS-CoV-2 arose unnaturally, and I'm pretty sure a Nobel prize beats a paper in Science. So I hope you now agree credentialism is dumb? Some areas of the origins debate require deep knowledge of the evolutionary biology of related viruses (e.g. the extent to which the coding of the FCS suggests engineering),…

I don't change my opinion of David Baltimore or of SARS-CoV-2 based on his belief (I am actually completely undecided and have been waiting for convincing evidence of any kind for some time). Baltimore is actually a bit kooky, he's not the first Nobellist to do/say dumb things: the inventor of PCR, Kary Mullis, was an HIV-causes-AIDS denier https://www.ihv.org/news/2023-News/USA-Today-Fact-check-Rese... Anyway, Balti…

I'd tend to agree that Baltimore initially overstated the significance of the FCS, though his updated position seems close to my own. I'd certainly agree that whatever Kary Mullis saw wasn't a physical glowing raccoon, that megadoses of vitamin C won't cure cancer, etc. That's basically my point, though. Prestige--personal, institutional, or otherwise--is no guarantee of quality.

It's not meaningless either, and in general I'd also place higher weight on a paper in a major journal than on a random Twitter thread. As to COVID origins in particular, I believe major journals have published unusually poor-quality work. This continues an unfortunate pattern set in past biosafety incidents (1977 flu, Sverdlovsk, etc.), of dismissing the possibility of an unnatural cause until the evidence was incontrovertible.

The math in the Worobey papers isn't really that inaccessible, and I'd consider some of it as good work if it weren't so grossly oversold. I agree there's no definite evidence for any origin of SARS-CoV-2, and I don't think the article linked here adds much. I do think revelation of the DEFUSE proposal did, and that UNC's and the EHA's prior silence on that is inexcusable.

Definite proof may never come, but for now the American government continues to fund high-risk virological research. That seems terrifying to me. Reckless agricultural practices also continue to risk novel pandemics (in the West too; our use of antibiotics on healthy animals may get remembered as a crime against humanity). The risk of reckless virological practices is additive to that though, and much more easily controlled, simply by defunding. I therefore believe it deserves attention now.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#748

Post by lamontcg »

kcplate wrote: post #744
lamontcg wrote: post #713

Earlier quoted context omitted.

late Jan / early Feb becomes more possible. there was certainly cryptic spread by then that was happening over airplane travel. both of them getting it would be unlikely though unless both of them were in china or italy or had contact with people from there. but you simply cannot diagnose covid just via symptoms. every symptom that covid causes can be caused by other respiratory viruses, covid just makes it more like…

Oh certainly could have been another respiratory ailment, but the abundance of coincidence to timing, symptoms (which were quite severe), and a general assumption that it’s not over here just make me skeptical of claims that “it couldn’t be covid because…”

You can't diagnose COVID on the basis of severity though.

I caught absolutely the worst flu of my adult life (in fact might have been the only case of flu I've caught in my adult life), but it was 12 months earlier in Jan 2019 so I'm positive it wasn't COVID. Ran a 103F fever for 72 hours straight, probably should have gone to the ER, was wiped out for about a month afterwards with post-viral fatigue. Had it happened 12 months later it would have looked a lot like COVID. I suspect it was just H1N1 which was ripping around the globe again after having gone fairly quiet a few years after the 2009 pandemic (and I never caught it back in 2009). Basically the same H1N1 strain was still going around in the 19/20 season.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#749

Post by iudqnolq »

kcplate wrote: post #746
iudqnolq wrote: post #717

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He falls into the class of writers who claims to lean left but in the past years has actually been a pretty obvious supporter of the right. This is a transparent yet effective schtick - for some reason people never question the framing of "even so-and-so is willing to call out their own side".

I think you might be over generalizing “the right”. He certainly aligns on specific things with the right, but not everything—only where there is common overlap to his personal politics. Same as on the left… It’s ok to be on a “side” and still be critical of that side. No one would rightly accuse Bill Maher or Jimmy Dore of being conservatives, but they are damn sure critical of certain perspectives as of late of the…

It's fascinating to see what different bubbles we live in. I and most everyone I respect and run into the opinions of would consider Maher and Dore small-c conservatives.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#750

Post by arisAlexis »

croes wrote: post #642
arisAlexis wrote: post #114

I don't understand how long it got for humanity as a whole to see the elephant. New virus, research center close by, Chinese denying but not letting investigation. It's like seeing your your husband exiting a brothel but still need proof he cheated.

There were stranger coincidences in the past, and China always denies an investigation, so it's nothing special in this case. Especially with Trump as president and we all remember the proofs of the WMDs in Iraq. BTW there are multiple reasons to enter a brothel without cheating, they need electricians and plumbers too. According to you they all are proven cheaters. >Sources within the US government say that three of…

"they need electricians and plumbers too. According to you they all are proven cheaters"

Humanity acted like its stupid and a conspiracy to ask if this man is anything else than a plumber. I mean if you see someone exiting a brothel and the first thing you think is that he is an electrician, there is some problem with logical thinking there. It's not that there is 0% chance. It's not not the default. Our default was that he is a plumber which should have been immensely less probable.

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