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First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

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Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#731

Post by bbwbsb »

dvzk wrote: post #544
harry8 wrote: post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>eager to say that the US Congress and the CIA can't be trusted. This is a truth universally accepted, no? I mean maybe not by some actual, genuine believers in totalitarianism but surely there aren't many of those? Surely? You never trust people with power. You trust a system of checks and balances precisely because of this. You could even found a nation on that and expect continued support of it.

Sure, but the same people who frequently say this also cite the CIA's declassified MK-ULTRA documents as if they are unimpeachable fact (and not possibly falsehood or strategic disinformation). At the end of the day, the average forum skeptic trusts the CIA more than most normal people do. I think trusting in our system of checks and balances is a reliable way to avoid the infinite regress of Pyrrhonian skepticism, b…

The credibility of a disclosure is not merely a function of the disclosing entity. The average forum skeptic 'trusts' the CIA more in that they believe they have a better grasp of the CIA's situation/incentives/etc. than the average person does, and thus a better ability to judge the credibility of particular disclosures. Some may actually be a better judge, some may not. Imagine a manipulative ex telling someone they never loved them. Whether or not they believe it will depend on their mental model of that person, not on how trustworthy they are.

Pyrrhonian skepticism is generally proposed as the solution to infinite regress, why do you suppose it would it be a cause?

With respect to 'libcuck', I find myself frustrated by the existence of the term because I want submissives to be respected (out of play). I'm sad to hear that your view may have been referred to in such a tasteless way; while I disagree, I do not think your view is unreasonable.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#732

Post by jacquesm »

MrOwnPut wrote: post #726
lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote: post #721

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there may have been a slight misunderstanding here (I'm not particularly familiar with this topic so I may have some concepts mistaken): > The lab-leak scenario presumes zoonotic jump, too. Just rather than from something in the wild, it's from humanized (ACE2-transgenic) mice > So the only reasonable conclusion so far is that we haven't found the reservoir host yet. > I do not believe one bit the only "reaso…

Zoonotic would mean it was a natural occurrence. The GoF program of adding the spike protein to attach to the ACE2 receptor and putting it in a mouse would NOT be zoonotic, but lab made. It's a lab mouse. Not a jump, but a deliberate placement in a lab. Obviously the implications matter whether it occurred in nature or deliberately by man. If it was the latter, then the program that was supposed to prepare against th…

Zoonotic jumps can still happen in a lab. They are simply jumps from one species to another.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#733

Post by dang »

indigodaddy wrote: post #5
larsiusprime wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being able to tie it specifically to the lab this concretely, by identifying the first patients by name, and having that (allegedly) from US government officials, is all new information, AFAIK.

Yes, this would seem to be a bit of a game-changer on the question. Too bad this appears it’s going to be buried within the HN algo and likely won’t be reported upon seriously in MSM either..

It spent 12 hours on HN's front page.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#734

Post by rnk »

rnk wrote: post #461
omniglottal wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This change of address is initated by an authority of that region or owner of that business. What exactly is your motivation is spreading FUD on this matter?

I don't think it's fine. When I worked at Google, we got updated address information for businesses periodically and we had an official process that applied updates to the data we had stored. It was actually a colossal pain in the butt. I could see that still being the way that addresses can get updated?

omniglottal, I wish you'd comment further about address info changing. Like the other responder to you, third parties can ask to update address info. It's absolutely not conspiratorial. Can we agree it's not a conspiracy?

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#735

Post by mitchdoogle »

logifail wrote: post #725
heisenbit wrote: post #719

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aggregate death numbers spiked and not just the old. Death risk from Covid might mirror age related risk but, but, but it is on top of it.

> Aggregate death numbers spiked If you're claiming that, for instance, those aged under 40 without any comorbidities were at significantly higher risk of dying due to the impact of Covid-19 I think it would be good to post a reference for that. The CDC publishes data showing causes of death by age cohort[0], it's worth looking at for the year 2020. Apparently they're still working on the 2021 figures. The short vers…

I can't be certain, but I think they were implying that aggregate deaths spiked more than you would expect.

Look at data here:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

These numbers show that the number of deaths observed is beyond the sum of reported covid deaths + expected deaths from all other sources. Which indicates either that many covid deaths were misclassified as something else, or that the strain on the health system caused by covid resulted in significantly more deaths. If deaths were misclassified, it is certainly possible that some percentage of people in their 40s or 50s died of Covid, with cause of death listed as something else.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#736

Post by harry8 »

richbell wrote: post #706
harry8 wrote: post #651

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sibling comment is flagged and really should not be.

FWIW I agree. Anyways, I think it's wrong that the White House attempted to discredit and aggressively remove the content under false pretenses. At the same time, I think it's important to recognize that the content can be real AND a foreign intelligence campaign at the same time. Russia tried to interfere with the 2017 French election by dumping hacked information[0]; in my opinion, they learned from that failure an…

Sure

But 1) Russian had nothing to do with Hunter's laptop and his Jared-Kushner-Roger-Stone level sleaze. A level of sleaze we consider normal because "But them! They do it! They're worse and they hate us." Repubs and Dems both say it about the other and excuse their own. All of it is utterly revolting outside of partisan divides and has led to ever increasing levels of contempt for government and the media covering it. That's a big problem. Bigger?

2) There was no alfa bank server. That one is astonishing that it wasn't a joke from the first 5 seconds of being tried on and tried on it really was. The source of it is interesting, have a look.

3) There were no russian bounties in Afghanistan. Undermining an elected president pursuing a policy with popular support with a lie. And it worked until Biden picked up that policy and took it forward to completion. Wow. Jaw meet floor.

4) The Steele dossier and every story (and everything, including warrants based on it), is a total joke.

So there's 4 occasions where our (entirely valid?) fears were used against us such that our /right/ to forming our own opinion was taken away. And we need to be honest that our revulsion of Trump was also an influence. That same thing tried on Biden would not have passed the sniff test as these should not have. Do we trust democracy or just end it now? I'm going with the former - even when I don't like who gets elected.

Russia couldn't have done that more effectively. Russia has been used as an excuse and a motivation and method to do that. Our fears have been used as a tool. Doesn't make Putin a good guy and neither was Saddam. WMD being a lie didn't make Saddam a better guy either. Same playbook, no?

Do you think Sanders was supported by Russia as was claimed? He had a huge popular support. Maybe he was? Evidence?

I was surprised to learn the FBI never examined the DNC email servers claimed to be hacked by Russia and the contents published by wikileaks. The source has the credibility affected the Alfa bank made-up-story. Maybe it was Russia? Evidence is not what I thought it was. You?

Which is worse for democracy. Russian interference? Or Interference using the fear of it? The second should not be a thing.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#737

Post by lcnPylGDnU4H9OF »

jacquesm wrote: post #732
MrOwnPut wrote: post #726

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zoonotic would mean it was a natural occurrence. The GoF program of adding the spike protein to attach to the ACE2 receptor and putting it in a mouse would NOT be zoonotic, but lab made. It's a lab mouse. Not a jump, but a deliberate placement in a lab. Obviously the implications matter whether it occurred in nature or deliberately by man. If it was the latter, then the program that was supposed to prepare against th…

Zoonotic jumps can still happen in a lab. They are simply jumps from one species to another.

Thanks for the explanations. Admittedly, my introduction to the term “zoonotic” was from playing Plague Inc: Evolved (if one is not familiar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_Inc:_Evolved) so you might see where I’m coming from. I do roughly understand this to be the meaning.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#738

Post by lcnPylGDnU4H9OF »

MrOwnPut wrote: post #726
lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote: post #721

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there may have been a slight misunderstanding here (I'm not particularly familiar with this topic so I may have some concepts mistaken): > The lab-leak scenario presumes zoonotic jump, too. Just rather than from something in the wild, it's from humanized (ACE2-transgenic) mice > So the only reasonable conclusion so far is that we haven't found the reservoir host yet. > I do not believe one bit the only "reaso…

Zoonotic would mean it was a natural occurrence. The GoF program of adding the spike protein to attach to the ACE2 receptor and putting it in a mouse would NOT be zoonotic, but lab made. It's a lab mouse. Not a jump, but a deliberate placement in a lab. Obviously the implications matter whether it occurred in nature or deliberately by man. If it was the latter, then the program that was supposed to prepare against th…

> putting it in a mouse would NOT be zoonotic

It sounds like the claim is that it’s “from humanized (ACE2-transgenic) mice“. I assume “humanized” is referring to the genome or something else about the genetics but these organisms still shouldn’t be considered humans (or at least this opinion seems reasonable; if it’s factually wrong I’m open to being corrected).

But if it’s “from” non-human “to” human, isn’t that a zoonotic jump, or is there some mistake in this understanding?

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#739

Post by dekhn »

tripletao wrote: post #728
dekhn wrote: post #687

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you a professional scientist with experience in this area or not?

Definitely not. But if you just want to hold up credentials, then David Baltimore seems pretty convinced that SARS-CoV-2 arose unnaturally, and I'm pretty sure a Nobel prize beats a paper in Science. So I hope you now agree credentialism is dumb? Some areas of the origins debate require deep knowledge of the evolutionary biology of related viruses (e.g. the extent to which the coding of the FCS suggests engineering),…

I don't change my opinion of David Baltimore or of SARS-CoV-2 based on his belief (I am actually completely undecided and have been waiting for convincing evidence of any kind for some time). Baltimore is actually a bit kooky, he's not the first Nobellist to do/say dumb things: the inventor of PCR, Kary Mullis, was an HIV-causes-AIDS denier https://www.ihv.org/news/2023-News/USA-Today-Fact-check-Rese... Anyway, Baltimore recanted some time ago, agreeing that he was far too strong in his claims (this is a common problem in science- people who are convinced often get really angry and insistent about their beliefs).

To be honest, I'm so unhappy with modern medical literature that even starting to try to understand a specific model would be highly unpleasant for me- generally, my experience has been that once I start pulling the threads on a paper that isn't strictly strong quantitative biophysics, the sweater comes apart. The vast majority of medical literature requires extensive analysis and a thorough understanding of all the context before you can even really start to make useful criticisms.

My general statement remains: my priors still place a higher weight on trusting papers in major journals that haven't been retracted yet, than on out-of-domain scientists on twitter. It may not even be true in this case- perhaps dawalker is actually totally right and you can't conclude much from the WOrobey paper. But more importantly: nobody yet has shown any true "smoking gun evidence" for the origin of SARS-CoV-2. I am not even going to get remotely excited about it for at least a decade, since that's about how long it takes for the community to calm down and start thinking rationally again.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#740

Post by autoexec »

Reason077 wrote: post #671
Pyramus wrote: post #662

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See my sibling comment with a link to the estimated properties of SARS-Cov-2 variants: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36337757

I don't disagree with your linked comment. But my personal experience, not to mention the high level of hospitalisation and mortality at the time which resulted in the first UK lockdown, disagrees with your "Vanilla strains were milder than beta/delta." statement, if "Vanilla" was the variant circulating in the UK in March 2020.

My understanding is that newer strains aren't much different in terms of severity, but the hospitalization and mortality rates will change by some percentage because our treatment protocols improved. When covid first hit, people had no idea what to do with the infected. Doctors around the world were sharing information and research was underway but they all had to learn as they went along. Eventually things were bound to improve, even if the virus hadn't evolved at all.
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