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SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

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Re: SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

#71

Post by burnished »

p-e-w wrote: post #32

While I do share a certain romantic admiration for the grandeur of SETI's goals, I have to agree with those who call this a waste of money and brainpower in our times. The most ludicrous AGI apocalypse scenarios seem orders of magnitude more likely than finding conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence. A second terrestrial intelligence is about to emerge, and the consequences of that might conceivably be…

It seems odd to me (this is also with reference to some of your child comments) that you rely on knowledge gained from previous efforts to suggest future efforts are pointless.

But beyond that I don't really see how these concerns are supposed to be competing for resources. Yes, resources are finite, but I don't see why you suppose they aren't sufficient to saturate both these concerns and then some.

There also seems to be value in the project in that it is a stepping stone towards being extra terrestrial ourselves. Establishing a powered listening post on the far side of the moon is likely to be very educational.

Re: SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

#72

Post by burnished »

localplume wrote: post #53
p-e-w wrote: post #32

While I do share a certain romantic admiration for the grandeur of SETI's goals, I have to agree with those who call this a waste of money and brainpower in our times. The most ludicrous AGI apocalypse scenarios seem orders of magnitude more likely than finding conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence. A second terrestrial intelligence is about to emerge, and the consequences of that might conceivably be…

why does it seem more likely? from an objective standpoint, why is there a higher likelihood for that? I would actually disagree. Extraterrestrial life is essentially guaranteed (statistically) but conlusive evidence is exceptionally difficult and who knows how far away any life would be. But there is absolutely nothing to suggest AGI is possible, let alone ASI. At best they are both equally unlikely in that people a…

Nitpick: Our own intelligence suggests that an artificial general intelligence is possible. First time seeing ASI but, any quality you can attribute to a human has the potential to be replicated by dint of the mechanical nature of our bodies.

I'm not saying we'll get there - I don't think 'we' as a culture even really understands what is meant by intelligence - but we know its possible because we exist.

Re: SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

#73

Post by burnished »

gnulinux wrote: post #42
miika wrote: post #14

I doubt SETI could detect even our own signals, when it’s encrypted digital data. I mean it’s just noise like any background signal.. Then, we people are very soon capable of communicating using quantum entanglement, which means it’s beyond wireless and you simply couldn’t tap into it with some antenna. For these reasons I suspect that SETI is waste of money.

> we people are very soon capable of communicating using quantum entanglement This is nothing other than sci-fi. I don't understand how you can be so sure of something like this.

Its old sci fi that seemed plausible at one point - hell I thought an ansible was still possible even a few years ago.

Re: SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

#74

Post by jmyeet »

SETI is not how we'll find alien spacefaring civilizations.

Within 1000 years, barring some apocalypse, an incredibly conservative prediction is that we will be able to build permanent space orbitals. We already have sufficiently strong and readily available materials (ie stainless steel) to build O'Neil Cylinders at 2-4 miles in diameter and 10-20 miles in length that could house as many as a million people. These can be powered with solar collectors.

Build enough of these (ie millions) and you have a Dyson Swarm. With our Sun that can give our civilization upwards of 10^26 Watts of power to use (compared to our current estimated 10^11 Watts). This is also known as a Kardashev-2 (or K2) civilization.

There are a ton of advantages to this. While it may not be the route that every civilization goes, given it is relatively low tech and has massive advantages in living area and energy availability, it seems like this would happen at least some of the time.

These things would stand out from a huge distance because the only way to dissipate heat for a space orbital is to radiate it away into space. That has a wavelength determined entirely by temperature, which for any reasonable termperature range is infrared.

So you'd detect a Dyson Swarm from a huge distance away by its IR signature.

A galaxy of these (a so-called K3 civilization) would be visible from millions of light years away. A single star would be detectable now from a smaller distance but still a far bigger distance than any form of radio communication as you'd find via SETI.

The fact that we haven't seen any evidence of this thus far in our galaxy leads many (including me) to think the most likely scenario is we are the only potential spacefaring civilizatin in our galaxy.

The JWST is actually a way better tool for finding spacefaring life than anything SETI has done or proposes.

Re: SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

#75

Post by varjag »

jmyeet wrote: post #74

SETI is not how we'll find alien spacefaring civilizations. Within 1000 years, barring some apocalypse, an incredibly conservative prediction is that we will be able to build permanent space orbitals. We already have sufficiently strong and readily available materials (ie stainless steel) to build O'Neil Cylinders at 2-4 miles in diameter and 10-20 miles in length that could house as many as a million people. These c…

Just curious, while stainless? There are better steels and it's not like it'll rust in space much.

Re: SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

#76

Post by burnished »

f6v wrote: post #35
edgyquant wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For most of history people knew we weren’t alone, given the existence of gods angels etc, so I don’t think this would change things all that much.

The difference is that aliens aren’t magical and all-powerful. They’re likely having similar struggles and fight the issues using technology. It’s a big difference to a god who just waves the hand and creates the universe.

Heads up; that isnt an even remotely accurate reduction of religion or deities as a concept. I could see the misunderstanding if your only exposure to religion was via christian sermons - they are real big on describing their god as the perfect being that is all powerful and blah de blah - but even their creation myths don't portray an omnipotent being, and much of their bible depicts a deity that strives and mistakes as we do (albeit writ large).

The truly salient difference is that aliens unlike gods aren't focused around our loves but their own.

Re: SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

#77

Post by burnished »

nradov wrote: post #17
kurthr wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even just knowing they are there/coming or might arrive in 1000y would have huge effects on human society. Not being alone as a species has fundamental existential meaning and religion. Would the effects be good? The truth can have bad effects, but so does not confronting reality.

Would it really though? I would still have to attend that early meeting tomorrow. Still have to go grocery shopping. Still have to pay my mortgage. Finding signals from aliens on some distant planet would be interesting for one news cycle. Then everything would continue on as before.

Failure of imagination on your part I think. Its easy to get thinking that the world cannot and has never changed.

Re: SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

#78

Post by Mistletoe »

p-e-w wrote: post #32

While I do share a certain romantic admiration for the grandeur of SETI's goals, I have to agree with those who call this a waste of money and brainpower in our times. The most ludicrous AGI apocalypse scenarios seem orders of magnitude more likely than finding conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence. A second terrestrial intelligence is about to emerge, and the consequences of that might conceivably be…

I see two potential AGI apocalypses described in scenarios like this.

1. Skynet type scenario where machines rule and somehow we can’t pull the plug on them.

2. Humans hoping to make money and gain power and weird positive feedback loops cause AI to goad humans into war with each other, causing massive world conflict, destroying the earth.

I cannot for the life of me fathom number 1 ever happening. How many data centers or aircraft carriers or really anything electronic or mechanized continue working without massive human intervention to keep those power outlets or engines going? I can’t think of anything. Why do we keep fearing this? I don’t care how much the AI evolves and iterates in silicon, it cannot escape this law of our physical universe and need for a physical connection to the real world we live in. It needs an army of humans, the great generalists, supporting it, to even survive.

Now if you fear #2, well that is more plausible and it seems we are living in it now.

Re: SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

#79

Post by jmyeet »

varjag wrote: post #75
jmyeet wrote: post #74

SETI is not how we'll find alien spacefaring civilizations. Within 1000 years, barring some apocalypse, an incredibly conservative prediction is that we will be able to build permanent space orbitals. We already have sufficiently strong and readily available materials (ie stainless steel) to build O'Neil Cylinders at 2-4 miles in diameter and 10-20 miles in length that could house as many as a million people. These c…

Just curious, while stainless? There are better steels and it's not like it'll rust in space much.

It doesn't have to be that specifically but it's a good example of something we can produce in mass quantities now that's sufficient. It's not particularly high tech either. Also, the components are relatively common, except maybe Chromium but I'm not sure you need that much of that.

Re: SETI scientists to devise plan for lunar listening station

#80

Post by exitb »

jmyeet wrote: post #74

SETI is not how we'll find alien spacefaring civilizations. Within 1000 years, barring some apocalypse, an incredibly conservative prediction is that we will be able to build permanent space orbitals. We already have sufficiently strong and readily available materials (ie stainless steel) to build O'Neil Cylinders at 2-4 miles in diameter and 10-20 miles in length that could house as many as a million people. These c…

What would be the motivation to build those cylinders? Traditionally people ventured into new places in hope of getting return of the effort and cost of the journey. Here it seems like you need to invest a lot, just to survive in emptiness.
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