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First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

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Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#151
post #30

> "If you knew that this was likely a lab-enhanced pathogen, there are so many things you could have done differently" I'm curious - if we knew in March 2020 that covid came from a lab, what _would_ we have done differently?

I had personally decided by April 2020 that there was sufficient information for me to believe that Covid was a lab-enhanced pathogen that was accidentally released by researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. My "source" was mainly common sense (the simplest solution is usually the right one, and guilty people doth protest too much), an understanding of probability (there is a lab studying the pathogen right n…

Ok, given your prescience about the origin of COVID, how did that influence the actions you took to mitigate its effects?

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#152
This information slipped over 2 years ago (probably right at the beginning). Wiesendanger did a study and referenced that a lab worker was suspected as patient zero¹ as a hint.

¹:https://www.uni-hamburg.de/newsroom/presse/2021/pm8.html (German, sorry)

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had personally decided by April 2020 that there was sufficient information for me to believe that Covid was a lab-enhanced pathogen that was accidentally released by researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. My "source" was mainly common sense (the simplest solution is usually the right one, and guilty people doth protest too much), an understanding of probability (there is a lab studying the pathogen right n…

Ok, given your prescience about the origin of COVID, how did that influence the actions you took to mitigate its effects?

Perhaps not mitigate its effects, but instead refocus our efforts on accountability – both in the US and in China.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#154
post #124
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. We don't have swabs that we can perform PCR on. On the other hand, this report, if true: - Sickened about a month before COVID-19 was formally detected - In close proximity to where COVID-19 was formally detected - While doing research on gain of function in coronaviruses. This is strongly suggestive circumstantial evidence.

It's much less impressive when you add: - with symptoms associated with common seasonal illness Not saying it wasn't COVID-19. Just saying that claiming it was is a bit of a stretch.

See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36332373

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Michael Shellenberger has done the same - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Shellenberger has details, and see criticism of the Breakthrough Institute. Alex Gutentag seems to be a contributing editor to Compact, writing things like https://compactmag.com/article/how-mask-mandates-defaced-us . A brief review of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_(American_magazine) shows a lot of familiar names of people that p…

> It misleading presents that the furin cleavage site had to come from gain of function it did. this isn't debatable anymore. there's literally grants written by american scientists proposing this pre-covid, the lab in wuhan was doing the legwork.

They are also already present in wild coronoviruses and the initial cluster don't support a lab leak theory, even if they were sloppily working on gain of function via that mechanism.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2211107119

"Harrison and Sachs’s (1) claim that alignment of sarbecovirus Spike amino acid sequences illustrates“the unusual nature of the [SARS-CoV-2] FCS” is misleading. FCSs are common in coronaviruses, and present in representatives of four out of five betacoronavirus subgenuses (8). The highly variable nature of the S1/S2 junction is easily ascertained by inspecting a precise alignment of sarbecovirus Spikes (Fig. 1C)."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8689951/

"As more bat CoVs are sampled, it is possible that another SARSr-CoV will be discovered with an S1/S2 FCS insertion. FCSs have evolved naturally in other non-sarbecovirus families of betacoronaviruses (Wu and Zhao 2020). Therefore, an S1/S2 FCS emerging in a sarbecovirus is consistent with natural evolution. Even so, the knowledge that scientists had a workflow for identifying novel cleavage sites in diverse SARSr-CoVs and experimentally characterizing these cleavage sites in SARSr-CoVs—likely in a manner that makes the resulting recombinant SARSr-CoV practically indistinguishable from a rare SARSr-CoV with a naturally emerging FCS—makes it challenging to rule out an artificial origin of the SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 FCS"

It's saying they can arise naturally and it's hard to distinguish origin. Your claim is debatable on its own, and sar-covid-19 GoF resource origin is extremely debatable, even unlikely. At any rate, this article doesn't appear to add anything new to the discussion beyond mixing some anonymous sources with existing public information in a sensationalized way.

edit: let me add, I don't want you downvoted. It may be that this it came from gain of function research at WIV and that the Huanan market cluster was a result of this research. But as of right now, there are other better explanations. I await the Directorate of National Intelligence declassified information this article claims is coming. I do not see how this would have changed the global response to the pandemic.

edit 2: I can't reply to you, stainablesteel. HN thinks I'm posting too much. I am done after this, maybe they are right. I would reply to you with this, though:

---

The furin cleavage site did not have to come from gain of function research. My "wall of text" explains that pretty clearly, even for a layman. That claim is what I said was debatable.

Whether or not it came from GoF research remains to be seen. This article didn't expose any new information, with the possible exception of the names of the WIV researchers.

I have a question for you: what do you think would change the lab origin theory were proven? What should have everyone have done differently during the pandemic? What should we do differently now? I genuinely want to understand your opinion.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#157
post #100
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are correct. I guess people can't handle that. This is from the article, it tracks with your sentiment: Said Metzl, “Had US government officials including Dr. Fauci stated from day one that a COVID-19 research-related origin was a very real possibility, and made clear that we had little idea what viruses were being held at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, what work was being done there, and who was doing that wor…

That doesn't track with their sentiment at all? "Our national and global conversation would have been dramatically different" is not the same as "many fewer people would have died".

Any response to your question is hypothetical at this point (disclaimer) so here's my hypothetical explanation of how conversation would have led to less deaths:

A lot of people believed the lab leak "consipracy theory", but Fauci and company were so adamant to contradict the "conspiracy theorists" that it practically destroyed those people's willingness to heed any of the CDC directives.

Of course I can only say anecdotally violating CDC guidelines results in more deaths, but that's the gist of my hypothetical.

See this article:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2021/06/16/heres-w...

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#158
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can never understand if someone actually believes this or is just actively gaslighting. Anyone trying to discuss even the possibility of a lab leak was called xenophobic, a conspiracy theorist, banned from socials… Funny thing when the “conspiracy theorists” keep turning out to be right.

Except they haven't at all, lol By "the “conspiracy theorists” keep turning out to be right" do you mean like how Trump won the election in 2020, Biden is an actor, Obama has been hung for treason, people around the globe are dropping dead from the vaccine, etc.? These are the people I'm talking about when I speak about conspiracy theorists, people reasonably sitting on the fence when there is conflicting information…

You're remembering incorrectly or your experience was narrow. At facebook, censoring discussion of a possible lab leak was literal written policy which wasn't changed until June of 2021: https://reason.com/2021/06/04/lab-leak-misinformation-media-...

And Twitter's files showed that the government (through multiple departments), members of Congress, and private companies were directly sending lists of hundreds of names of people to ban or deemphasize for talking about it.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#159
post #16

Note that this is NOT the Wuhan CDC, which is the building across the river from the wet market. They did not do any research there. This building is ~10 miles south, well outside the main city. https://geohack.toolforge.org/geohack.php?pagename=Wuhan_Ins... The fact that researchers were sick with flu-like symptoms has been openly stated by the US for a long time. This was put out in the state department Jan 2021, 2…

I haven't looked at where Ben Hu's lab is, but epidemiological distance in urban areas doesn't necessarily follow map distance. In particular, proximity to a shared subway or bus line can be more important than physical proximity, since many commuters will put up with longer travel times if they can tune out, and a packed rush hour subway car is a great place for the spread of airborne infectious diseases. (In US cit…

The CDC is smack in the center of the city (on the other side of the river). The WIV is way outside the urban area, past a very large industrial park.

The distribution of cases also strongly contradicts you: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9348750/figure/...

Cases were roundly distributed, not along any particular artery. Note that the WIV is not even close to being in frame there- that's how much farther away it is.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except they haven't at all, lol By "the “conspiracy theorists” keep turning out to be right" do you mean like how Trump won the election in 2020, Biden is an actor, Obama has been hung for treason, people around the globe are dropping dead from the vaccine, etc.? These are the people I'm talking about when I speak about conspiracy theorists, people reasonably sitting on the fence when there is conflicting information…

Precisely this. I don't care to speculate, read, or give a single care in the world about this. I think the hope for stopping GoF research is about as high a chance as the world "putting a pause" on AI. And this thread is littered with all of the usual conspiracy head-nods. I think we should know more about the origins of COVID but I haven't seen a single discussion of this that doesn't immediately dove-tail into var…

> I haven't seen a single discussion of this that doesn't immediately dove-tail into various other conspiracies or whistles.

None ever will from your perspective if you're citing "head nods" and dog whistles.

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