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The concurrence of three climatic events

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Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I may be misremembering my ancient history here but didn’t Homo Sapiens arguably almost go extinct during the last ice age? As a related digression I think what people just keep forgetting about here isn’t like, we’ll survive. It’s we have all this nice stuff like avocados, grapes, heart surgery, and MacBook Pros, elephants, winter sports, houses, etc. and it sure would be nice to not lose that stuff for no good reas…

I agree 100% that we should do everything in our power to save as many people and as much technology as we can as we go through climate change. My point was just that claims that the entire species is going to go extinct are unlikely and, worse, counter-productive. The last thing we need is fatalism and people giving up hope.

I agree with you - I’m sorry I didn’t gleam your original intent from the previous post. Fatalism and nihilism are mind viruses.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#332
post #286

A lot of comments deriding this article as alarmist. Excuse me if I'm incorrect in saying so, but even the data seems to tell me that alarmism is where we are at: This articles data. Incredible floods in Pakistan. Heat domes over the PNW. Fires in Australia, Canada, California. And now a warming event in the North Atlantic unlike any other. All of that and this is likely to be one of the coolest summers for the remai…

> Fires in Australia, Canada, California. Please don't use California as an example here. It's supposed to be on fire. Several species of trees and plants here cannot germinate without fire. The loooong known problem [1] is mismanagement, building houses where places burn, and blaming the wrong people, which leads to overgrowth from lack of fire. Fires aren't, by any measure, optional. If you impede them, they will c…

Same with Australia. There’s so many pyrophytes that the Eucalyptus tree adapted to produce an oil that burns especially hot in order to wipe out competitors and prevent them from sprouting after the fire.

Canada, on the other hand, is a powder keg waiting to blow. The ecosystem is too wet to have any fire adaptations and as the peatlands dry, they expose meters thick layers of undecomposed plant matter that are dense enough to be used as a cheap and dirty fuel in some parts of world. It’s one of the largest carbon stores on the planet and we’ll soon have months long fires a the peat burns.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not the point of the comment you're responding to. Climate-driven austerity isn't going to happen, because it's an intractable global-scale collective action problem. If you believe that anthropogenic climate change is going to be a global disaster, you should probably reasonably assume that some country in the world is going to allocate serious resources to mitigating it. There are 50 countries in the world w…

"If you believe that anthropogenic climate change is going to be a global disaster, you should probably reasonably assume that some country in the world is going to allocate serious resources to mitigating it." Not when mitigating it requires ending and reversing economic growth. You're assuming there's a single nation on Earth run by good-faith actors. Furthermore, if climate-drive austerity doesn't occur, the Earth…

My understanding of the point being made is, if anthropogenic climate change is a global catastrophe threatening countries around the world, each of those threatened countries will, at some point, have no choice but to invest in the implementation of geoengineering projects. There won't be a choice.

So the only real question is, when the moment comes that the first sufficiently industrialized country is pushed to the edge by climate catastrophe, what options will they have available to them? If the only options are bad things that are likely to cause more harm than good, that won't matter --- it'll still happen, because what else could happen?

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time humans try and fix nature, we tend to make it worse due to not understanding the problem or consequences.

That's not the point of the comment you're responding to. Climate-driven austerity isn't going to happen, because it's an intractable global-scale collective action problem. If you believe that anthropogenic climate change is going to be a global disaster, you should probably reasonably assume that some country in the world is going to allocate serious resources to mitigating it. There are 50 countries in the world w…

What sort of geoengineering project could a country the size of NZ undertake on its own though? Certainly nothing that will make any difference to global climate - at best they might find ways to control cloud-cover and/or rainfall over its own territory. And "legal permission" mightn't be an issue, but if one country decides to undertake a geoengineering project that's fully expected to have a significant negative impact on other ones, they can certainly expect military retaliation.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The source listed by TFA for SST, surface sea-water temperature, is https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ > From the note on that page: The page provides time series and map visualizations of daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from the NOAA Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) dataset version 2.1. OISST is a 0.25°x0.25° gridded dataset that estimates temperatures based on a blend of satellite, ship, and bu…

thanks we’re on the right track but it’s still lacking the stats. ie what is the distribution of the instruments and how are they weighted ? are dense and sparse weighted equally? how about close and distant instruments to settlements ? to me collapsing thousands of observations to a single average loses most of the signal

Is there some peculiar technical limitation on your end which prevents you from following or reading links?

From the NOAA link above:

See Huang et al. 2021 for complete details

Huang et al, "Improvements of the Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (DOISST) Version 2.1 " (April 2021): https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/8/JCLI-D-...>

Notably:

- "DOISST v2.0 and v2.1 have a resolution of daily and 0.25° × 0.25°"

- "The large-scale biases of AVHRR SSTs are corrected against the available in situ observations from ships and buoys in DOISST v2.0 (Reynolds et al. 2007) and from ships, buoys, and Argo floats in this study (v2.1; Table 1). Daily biases of AVHRR SSTs (e.g., 15 January 2020) are calculated in the following procedures: 1) daily AVHRR and in situ SSTs are bin-averaged separately to 2° × 2° grids; 2) daily AVHRR and in situ SSTs are averaged separately within a 15-day running window (e.g., 8–22 January 2020); 3) the averaged AVHRR and in situ SSTs are projected onto a common set of empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) functions; 4) the difference between EOT-filtered AVHRR and in situ SSTs is defined as AVHRR biases; and 5) the daily biases on 2° × 2° grids are interpolated linearly to 0.25° × 0.25° grids and applied to AVHRR SST [see more details in Reynolds et al. (2007); Huang et al. 2015b]."

I'll trust in your competence to answer your remaining questions without my assistance.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Bill Gates purchased farms clandestinely on a massive scale Clandestine means secrete and illegal. If it was secret, how do you know about it and if it was illegal, what was illegal about it? Bill Gates famously funded a "mini-nukes" company to make smaller footprint nuclear power plants, and portable nuclear generators. So what? Where is the connection to a smaller nuclear reactor coming from?

pedantic "secrete" means to emit fluids or odor.. if you say so! ; "clandestine" means secret or secretive "especially if illegal" .. not illegal per se..

"so what" is up to you.. maybe it means nothing to you, "so what"

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not the point of the comment you're responding to. Climate-driven austerity isn't going to happen, because it's an intractable global-scale collective action problem. If you believe that anthropogenic climate change is going to be a global disaster, you should probably reasonably assume that some country in the world is going to allocate serious resources to mitigating it. There are 50 countries in the world w…

What sort of geoengineering project could a country the size of NZ undertake on its own though? Certainly nothing that will make any difference to global climate - at best they might find ways to control cloud-cover and/or rainfall over its own territory. And "legal permission" mightn't be an issue, but if one country decides to undertake a geoengineering project that's fully expected to have a significant negative i…

Those are two coherent rebuttals. "But it will do harm than good" or "it will have unintended consequences", on the other hand, aren't.

But in the thought exercise here, consider that military retaliation just pushes the moment that a climate-threatened country will respond with geoengineering into the future --- to the point where the cost of military intervention is lower than that of climate change.

I don't know, though, I'm just noodling.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an emotional response and not a scientific one. The Haber–Bosch process was the biological equivalent of a deferred-interest loan. It gave us enough food to scale from 2 billion to 8, but now the planet is coming to collect its dues. We never had the natural resources to support humanity's current numbers, and by inflating our Nitrogen supply and stripping the Earth of everything else we need, we've utterly f…

Hasn’t all of technological progress been paying one credit card off with another?

That's an interesting question, and one I've looked at answering in part by looking at technology in terms of its mechanisms.

As I see it, it's possible to frame all technologies as being fundamentally based on one of the following mechanisms, interactions, or focus points:

- Materials: stuff, its properties, abundance, and sourcing and disposal issues. Wood, stone, ceramics, metals, fluids, chemicals, nuclear materials.

- Fuels: energy potential stored in material arrangements. Biomass, fossil fuels, nuclear fuels. This excludes energy flows such as solar, wind, tidal, and geothermal. Subject to limits in stores and creation rates. Result in waste products and phenomena.

- Power transmission and transformation: from simple machines to complex mechanisms and grid distribution. Levers, screws, pulleys, electromagnetism, beamed energy. This would include energy flows described above.

- Process knowledge: "technology" writ large. As J.S. Mill put it, the study of means, how to achieve some goal through some process or technique.

- Causal knowledge: "science" writ large. As J.S. Mill put it, the study of causes, or why the world is and acts as it does, based on empirical study.

- Networks: nodes and links. These may be physical or logical. Transportation, distribution, social, economic, commercial, political, and conceptual collections of loci and the connections and interactions between them. Famously give rise to network effects, also subject to hygiene factors (below).

- Systems: management of process with feedback and models. From basic polity to vast technological, economic, and ecological systems. "The Art of ship handling involves the effective use of forces under control to overcome the effect of forces not under control" -- Charles H. Cotter.

- Information: input, processing, storage, and output. From basic anatomical senses (sight, sound, smell, taste, touch) to language, maths, logic, abstract representation, manipulation, detection, transmission, reception, and retention. Capable of immense scaling itself, but often with profound limits on direct application.

- Hygiene: management of unintended and/or unanticipated consequences. All technologies achieve both desired and undesired effects, those may be manifest or latent, and may occur immediately or lagged. We tend to best cope with immediate and manifest effects, it is the lagged and latent ones that tend to cause the greatest trouble.

The technologies which seem to best fit your "credit card" model are those involving fossil fuels especially, materials resources formed very slowly or at singular points in time in Earth's history, and of hygiene impacts whose immediate and long-term consequences diverge strongly. Steve Keen (amongst others) shows that economic productivity scales near-linearly with energy consumption, yet we are using fossil fuels at rates millions of times greater than they accumulated. Virtually any mining activity represents extraction at rates greater than accumulation (the reverse is "farming", though even that can be problematic). Current industry has a strong reliance on a large number of elements and minerals, many of which are scarce or sparse. An example of the latter being "rare earths", which are not actually rare so much as they do not form ore bodies, and must be separated with high energy and waste-material costs from exceedingly low concentrations in the Earth's crust. Similarly, various emissions are often presumed or advertised as being low-consequence ... until they are not. Heavy metals, inert compounds (most notably hydrofluourocarbons), synthetic materials (e.g., plastics with bioactive and endocrinologic effects), and carbon dioxide resulting from combustion are all now major environmental concerns, initially dismissed, overlooked, or actively obscured by those with a short-term benefit from their use.

It seems that there are possibilities within process and causal knowledge, power transmission and transformation, networks, systems, and hygiene mechanisms for technologies which are far less prone to risk or debt-shifting. Though critics such as Tainter would suggest that complexity is its own inherent risk, with substantial justificiation.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#340
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

very poor taste IMO.

It's been suggested to state things in terms of 9/11/2001 for Americans who don't understand the distaste in such discussions. E.g. each "Hiroshima" would be worth 65 "9/11/2001"s. The scale of the graph's Y-axis would run from 195 to 585 "9/11/2001"s. Derivation: Hiroshima: 129,000–226,000 deaths. E(death_Hiroshima) ~= 180k. 9/11/2011, NYC: 2,753 people died. 180k/2753 ~= 65.

Neither is particularly helpful, though I should point out that American trauma from 9/11 wasn't based on the number of people who died but rather the symbol of how the attack was executed, and the fact that it happened on US soil.

If the WTC towers were somehow successfully evacuated before collapse, and only 200 people died instead of 3000 (or however there were on the 2 planes), the cultural effect on the country would've been the same.

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