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The concurrence of three climatic events

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Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#201

Post by 411111111111111 »

phkahler wrote: post #172
civilitty wrote: post #95

> There is another possible input to this heating worthy of note. Dust from the Sahara typically blows west this time of year, blocking incoming radiation while trapping existing heat. So far this year the dust has not come. The lack of dust is notable and could also be a direct cause of some of the North Atlantic heating. This caught my eye as a potentially much worse catastrophe in the short term than the extreme t…

Fair point, but what if the desert starts greening again? I don't expect it to, but having what nutrients there are NOT blow away would be a start right?

The issue is water and sand. While it's currently supplementing other ecosystems with nutritions, these by themselves won't magically become greenery.

It would definitely have an incredible effect on the climate if you could magically make Africa into a Forest again though. Might even make some parts of Europe uninhabitable with that cooling alone. Not gonna happen though.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#202

Post by bbor »

phkahler wrote: post #184
booleandilemma wrote: post #4

This guy's blog is subtitled "Eliot Jacobson's Collapse of Everything Blog". Is this his schtick? Does he just say the world is ending all the time, or is what he's saying true?

>> Is this his schtick? Does he just say the world is ending all the time, or is what he's saying true? I didn't get any "alarmist" signals from this post of his until near the end. If all the data is as it suggests there really does seem to be something going on this year in particular in addition to a trend. But then he said "Infrastructure will break beyond repair." which jumped out as alarmist to me. Like we can'…

I guess it depends on what you mean by “beyond repair”, I.e. how many pieces of a bridge can you replace before you’re replacing the bridge rather than repairing it?

I am definitely not an expert on infrastructure or civil engineering in general, but I’ve heard lots of stories about heat being bad for our infra, e.g. warped rail lines in the UK. “Beyond repair” seems within the bound of reason

EDIT: also, obligatory dont-look-up-ication:

"I didn't sense any 'alarmist' undertones from this post of his until almost the end. If all the data is as it suggests, there genuinely seems to be an extraordinary astronomical event headed our way this year on top of other celestial trends. But then he said, 'Civilization will crumble beyond repair,' which struck me as alarmist. Like we can't rebuild or adapt our society? I wish people wouldn't resort to such extreme statements, as it prompts me to respond with 'dude, calm down,' even when they otherwise seem to have a valid concern."

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#203

Post by Koffiepoeder »

pcdoodle wrote: post #111
kfrzcode wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep calm, carry on, adapt. Slow-moving crises are not crises, they're problems, not emergencies. ---- Here, have some literature, down-voters! ---- [1] Nine long and nearly continuous sea level records were chosen from around the world to explore rates of change in sea level for 1904–2003. These records were found to capture the variability found in a larger number of stations over the last half century studied prev…

Wake me up when the banks stop giving 30 year loans for coastline property. Who do you trust? Bankers or the "experts".

In Belgium, if you buy an appartment at the coastline using a business, the fiscal authorities dispute the tax deductability and depreciation (33y by default) if it is not at least on the second floor.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#204

Post by EMCymatics »

tonymillion wrote: post #90
EMCymatics wrote: post #6

whoever is using the ocean as a giant heat sink needs to stop (joke)

Turns out AI will be the death of us all, but not in the way we think… All those GPUs need cooling somehow.

The reason why we cant fight climate change is because the AI wont let us (joke)

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#206

Post by vixen99 »

tovej wrote: post #22
giarc wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps. I never know what to believe. I've heard smart, knowledgeable people like Bill Gates state that he thinks we won't experience a scorched Earth ending, but that we will solve this crisis. I'd like to believe him, but then I see an article like this and I don't know who to believe, the graphs are pretty damning if only to say "that line is way above the other lines, and that is bad."

Bill Gates has been buying up water reserves, has investments in polluting industries, and he's got an interest in keeping the public thinking it's "not so bad". It is. Bill Gates is also behind the "our world in data" series on youtube, that consistently misrepresents climate science to make it seem like we can solve it with enough "green industry", when the only real solution is degrowth, we can't afford to keep si…

Economists tell us that the COVID-19 pandemic triggered the sharpest downturn in the world economy since the Great Depression. Result? Well, looking at the Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 for the last five years, it's difficult to detect any shift in its monotonic increase.

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#207

Post by forgetfreeman »

redtriumph wrote: post #205

> while the world attempts to recover from a pandemic that is still ongoing but ignored by global media. I wonder what parts of world are still going through the pandemic. Without citations, some of the facts in article come up as alarmists.

Literally everywhere on the planet where it is still trivially possible to catch covid, so....everywhere.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#208

Post by josho »

lettergram wrote: post #130

Let’s see the last 200-400 years of climate data. Curious the fluctuations 1991-2020 has decent variance, there’s also 30 year solar cycles. We only see one cycle in this data, we need more data tip make conclusions

> we need more data tip make conclusions

Skeptics have been raising questions like yours for decades. If you are truly interested in answers then it is only one or two google searches away. In short scientists have already factored those concerns into their analysis.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#209

Post by pphysch »

vkou wrote: post #199
pphysch wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change is many things: - Real. - Influenced by human activity, both positively and negatively. - Difficult to study, because we only have decades of hard data for what is a phenomenon spanning eons. - A narrative pushed by Western economies to discourage economic development of the Global South and maintain hegemony. If the former were actually serious about mitigating it, it would harshly regulate planned ob…

As opposed to the narrative pushed by Western economies to encourage limited forms of economic development in the Global South, by facilitating the creation of captive markets and dependent client states? You know, the normal day-to-day economic orthodoxy the world's been running under for two hundred years? Which one do you think is winning? (Also, when you say the Global South, do you mean the Global South that ten…

> You know, the normal day-to-day economic orthodoxy the world's been running under for two hundred years?

Exactly, it's modern lipstick for an old pig.

> the Global South that everyone starts complaining about as soon as I mention that maybe we should reduce our emissions...

Yeah, that one.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#210

Post by bbor »

pc86 wrote: post #45
iso1631 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Millions of migrants seems a massivly optimistic view. I suspect it will be well over a billion in 10 years.

What's your citation for suspecting that more than 1 in 8 living people will be a migrant? That seems pretty alarmist, and well over any number I've seen suggested elsewhere.

Definitely don’t think it’s as settled as you’re implying here :)

This think tank says 1.2B:

https://www.zurich.com/en/media/magazine/2022/there-could-be...

Reasoning:

- 19 countries with the highest number of ecological threats are among the world’s 40 least peaceful countries including Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Chad, India and Pakistan.

- Over one billion people live in 31 countries where the country’s resilience is unlikely to sufficiently withstand the impact of ecological events by 2050, contributing to mass population displacement.

- Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa are the regions facing the largest number of ecological threats.

- 3.5 billion people could suffer from food insecurity by 2050; which is an increase of 1.5 billion people from today.

- The lack of resilience in countries covered in the ETR will lead to worsening food insecurity and competition over resources, increasing civil unrest and mass displacement, exposing developed countries to increased influxes of refugees.

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