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The concurrence of three climatic events

climatecasino.net

181–190 of 408 posts

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#181
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Therefore... panic?

Given that such rapid and severe deviations as shown in the charts are unheard of at this scale, perhaps a little panic is justified. It’s certainly worrying.

I agree it's worrying. Panic to me, though, indicates a loss of your faculties. You still have to be able to assess the situation objectively and adapt accordingly. I guess my point is that hyperbole about climate change (alarmism) is just as unhelpful as climate change denial.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#182
post #26

> The IPCC suggests that current sulfur aerosol levels are contributing in the neighborhood of 0.5° C to total global cooling, offsetting warming that would otherwise rapidly occur. > By cleaning up shipping fuels, massive regions of the world’s oceans that were protected from heating by shipping sulfate aerosols are now experiencing rapid warming. This includes the main shipping routes between Asia and the Western U…

The macro challenge is that we have already overshot and the IPCC appears to be massively understating the current state. According to Hansen et. al.'s Global warming in the pipeline [under peer review], "Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today’s human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m2) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today’s aerosols. Decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade." For context, this 10°C is over the next 1500 years, but it does imply at least 4.3°C of warming by 2100.

> But if every fraction of a degree matters, shouldn't we also be at least continuing if not scaling up these albedo-increasing changes?

Humanity is running the experiment in real time with a sample size of one. Aerosol dimming is good but acid rain is bad: we have a bad vs a worse choice so someone will be harmed, thus any project has liability and the default of doing nothing happens.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 if you want some light reading.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep calm, carry on, adapt. Slow-moving crises are not crises, they're problems, not emergencies. ---- Here, have some literature, down-voters! ---- [1] Nine long and nearly continuous sea level records were chosen from around the world to explore rates of change in sea level for 1904–2003. These records were found to capture the variability found in a larger number of stations over the last half century studied prev…

Wake me up when the banks stop giving 30 year loans for coastline property. Who do you trust? Bankers or the "experts".

https://www.ocregister.com/2023/05/26/state-farm-says-no-new...

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#184

This guy's blog is subtitled "Eliot Jacobson's Collapse of Everything Blog". Is this his schtick? Does he just say the world is ending all the time, or is what he's saying true?

>> Is this his schtick? Does he just say the world is ending all the time, or is what he's saying true?

I didn't get any "alarmist" signals from this post of his until near the end. If all the data is as it suggests there really does seem to be something going on this year in particular in addition to a trend. But then he said "Infrastructure will break beyond repair." which jumped out as alarmist to me. Like we can't fix or build more infrastructure? I wish people wouldn't do that, as it makes me react with "dude calm down" when they otherwise seem to have a point.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#185
"The end of global industrial civilization is where we are headed right now, not at some future dystopian moment. I wish I had a hopeful word to end with. But I don’t."

Sunshade:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade

I'm not too concerned with climate change destroying us all within a 100 years.

I'm excited to see the innovations and discoveries to be made while we develop technology to mitigate disaster.

Edit:

Furthermore I am excited to see the ROI I will receive from investing in mitigation technology.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#186

What's up with the straight line across the equatorial Pacific? https://climatecasino.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/GLOBAL_...

Lack of wind, since the trade winds of the north and south hemispheres converge or cancel each other at the equator

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intertropical_Convergence_Zo...

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#187
post #26

> The IPCC suggests that current sulfur aerosol levels are contributing in the neighborhood of 0.5° C to total global cooling, offsetting warming that would otherwise rapidly occur. > By cleaning up shipping fuels, massive regions of the world’s oceans that were protected from heating by shipping sulfate aerosols are now experiencing rapid warming. This includes the main shipping routes between Asia and the Western U…

> It's frustrating that we've argued a lot about the hazards of intentional geoengineering responses without reaching a consensus that we should do it, and meanwhile the shipping industry was cavalierly doing it along-side their other emissions.

Was there a debate about this that the IMO ignored? As a layman, I have heard before that cutting emissions of certain particulates could increase global warming in the short term but I don't recall seeing any real discussion of its dangers or strong calls against it. I mean at a societal level - I'm sure there has been discussion of it within the scientific community, but what were the conclusions of that discussion and how were they communicated to the IMO and the rest of society?

I worry that this could further undermine public support for climate change initiatives. The skeptics will spin this as "they said we should cut emissions, then we did and now they are saying that cutting emissions led to climate change". You and I both know that's a flawed message but that's the story they will tell and a lot of people will probably buy it.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep calm, carry on, adapt. Slow-moving crises are not crises, they're problems, not emergencies. ---- Here, have some literature, down-voters! ---- [1] Nine long and nearly continuous sea level records were chosen from around the world to explore rates of change in sea level for 1904–2003. These records were found to capture the variability found in a larger number of stations over the last half century studied prev…

Wake me up when the banks stop giving 30 year loans for coastline property. Who do you trust? Bankers or the "experts".

This is without a doubt the most hilarious take I have ever seen.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the 'novel' The Ministry of The Future, that could be a state Actor... . I put 'novel' in quotes because it's a really weird novel.

A novel novel, got it. I actually thought it was a pretty straightforward read, but to each their own. According to the novel Termination Shock it could just take an eccentric billionaire to launch a geoengineering effort like that (though with some blowback from state actors) - of course there aren't any of those around, so that's clearly fiction...

Just as a digression I thought Ministry for the Future was a far better book than Termination Shock was.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#190

Is there anywhere on earth I can move to where it’ll take longer to get terrible?

I chose to live in Michigan mostly for climate crisis and natural disaster reasons. One of the largest fresh bodies of water, no earthquakes, hardly any tornadoes, no hurricanes, ocean levels won’t impact directly, forest fires aren’t common in the scale of California. Projections show it will still be farmable in 50 years. The downside is it’s a Midwest flyover sate, and the winters can be tough. The lack of sun and abundance of snow can be impactful on mood.
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