The concurrence of three climatic events • Hacker News Board

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#141

Post by genman » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:18 PM UTC

guerrilla wrote: post #61

vichu wrote: post #12

I fear that this is the year "wet-bulb temperature" becomes a term regular households across the world become deeply familiar with. It may be as ubiquitous as the term "social distancing" became. I've always naively thought that climate disaster was still 10-20 years out, but it seems like it's going to begin in earnest now and instead be completely catastrophic after these next 10 years. What can I as an individual…

I dount it'll help you much to move. We've got drought and fire here in Sweden already. Never rains anymore. Slaugherhouses fullbooked already becauae the probability of being able to keep the livestock fed and watered looks pretty bad already...

I hope they make canned meat then.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#142

Post by bioemerl » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:19 PM UTC

abeppu wrote: post #26

> The IPCC suggests that current sulfur aerosol levels are contributing in the neighborhood of 0.5° C to total global cooling, offsetting warming that would otherwise rapidly occur. > By cleaning up shipping fuels, massive regions of the world’s oceans that were protected from heating by shipping sulfate aerosols are now experiencing rapid warming. This includes the main shipping routes between Asia and the Western U…

It was hilariously and recklessly irresponsible for these guys to basically use a regulation to put a geoengineering experiment into play that is the exact opposite of what we want to be doing right now.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#143

Post by hammock » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:19 PM UTC

guerrilla wrote: post #61

vichu wrote: post #12

I fear that this is the year "wet-bulb temperature" becomes a term regular households across the world become deeply familiar with. It may be as ubiquitous as the term "social distancing" became. I've always naively thought that climate disaster was still 10-20 years out, but it seems like it's going to begin in earnest now and instead be completely catastrophic after these next 10 years. What can I as an individual…

I dount it'll help you much to move. We've got drought and fire here in Sweden already. Never rains anymore. Slaugherhouses fullbooked already becauae the probability of being able to keep the livestock fed and watered looks pretty bad already...

>Never rains anymore

Sweden average rainfall seems to be trending up on a 100-year scale. https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/precipitation

> We've got drought and fire here in Sweden already

Forest fires in Sweden are a complex dynamic and the risk factor from climate change is only one part. Here is an interesting discussion https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-020-01718-2

Droughts in Sweden have been on a downtrend for the last 60 years, with quite a bit of variability. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182...

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#144

Post by sofixa » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:20 PM UTC

pc86 wrote: post #45

iso1631 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Millions of migrants seems a massivly optimistic view. I suspect it will be well over a billion in 10 years.

What's your citation for suspecting that more than 1 in 8 living people will be a migrant? That seems pretty alarmist, and well over any number I've seen suggested elsewhere.

Well if current temperatures and predictions are anything to go by, big chunks of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh will become uninhabitable, wet bulb temperatures wise. Just from that area you can easily get to 1 billion; there's also Africa and the Americas that could experience droughts, destruction of wildlife habitats relied upon for sustenance (mostly fishing), unviable temperatures, floodings, etc.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#145

Post by zzzeek » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:21 PM UTC

giarc wrote: post #11

booleandilemma wrote: post #4

This guy's blog is subtitled "Eliot Jacobson's Collapse of Everything Blog". Is this his schtick? Does he just say the world is ending all the time, or is what he's saying true?

Perhaps. I never know what to believe. I've heard smart, knowledgeable people like Bill Gates state that he thinks we won't experience a scorched Earth ending, but that we will solve this crisis. I'd like to believe him, but then I see an article like this and I don't know who to believe, the graphs are pretty damning if only to say "that line is way above the other lines, and that is bad."

a public figure like Bill Gates who is trying to provide solutions (or whatever he is doing, I see some other posts pointing to other less noble agendas he might have) can't exactly come out and say "well, this will probably all not work, most of the observations point to collapse of most farming and mass die-offs due to heat / starvation within ten years", that would work against his goal of getting people motivated and interested in working / voting towards a solution.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#146

Post by hutzlibu » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:22 PM UTC

TSiege wrote: post #91

abeppu wrote: post #26

> The IPCC suggests that current sulfur aerosol levels are contributing in the neighborhood of 0.5° C to total global cooling, offsetting warming that would otherwise rapidly occur. > By cleaning up shipping fuels, massive regions of the world’s oceans that were protected from heating by shipping sulfate aerosols are now experiencing rapid warming. This includes the main shipping routes between Asia and the Western U…

I completely agree with this sentiment. We should either remove the sulfur scrubbers from ships, start solar dimming around the poles, or both. It's an emergency and we're feeling the shocks right now. Another example, the war in Ukraine is accelerating the clean energy revolution in Europe, cutting down on air pollution. How's that going to help their drought? Will the EU act on national interests?

"Another example, the war in Ukraine is accelerating the clean energy revolution in Europe, cutting down on air pollution."

Maybe in the long run it helps, but right now, not really:

"European coal-fuelled power generation climbed last year as countries scrambled to replace Russian gas, but the increase was smaller than feared as renewable energy helped to plug the gap, ...Outright coal generation in the EU increased by 7%, or 28 terawatt hours (TWh), in 2022, pushing up power sector CO2 emissions by nearly 4%."

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-coal-rebound-smal...

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#147

Post by sverona » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:23 PM UTC

brindidrip wrote: post #63

So given this context and assuming it is accurate, where do you think would be the most viable areas to live? If I were to consider for the US, I'd say inland northern states like Wisconsin and Michigan thanks to the Great Lakes...

I moved to Grand Rapids for precisely this reason.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#148

Post by prottog » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:23 PM UTC

data_maan wrote: post #133

boc wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Degrowth is not a solution. Geo-engineering is our only way out of this mess.

Geo engineering is jumping from a cliff and hoping there is water down so you don't hit concrete. Degrowth is the only sustainable solution, geo-engineering will create more problems than it solves.

Degrowth is a great solution for those who didn't get degrowth'd.

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#149

Post by jazzyjackson » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:23 PM UTC

Trasmatta wrote: post #48

booleandilemma wrote: post #4

This guy's blog is subtitled "Eliot Jacobson's Collapse of Everything Blog". Is this his schtick? Does he just say the world is ending all the time, or is what he's saying true?

Climate change is terrifying, but I also have a hard time taking self titled Doomers totally seriously. It makes sense to consider all of the worst case scenarios for any event, and to prepare for them. But Doomers seem to have an obsession with it, and a need to convince others that the worst will happen. I noticed this a lot in 2020. COVID was (and is) awful, but there was so much shit that Doomers claimed would ha…

Apocalyptic Ideation

Re: The concurrence of three climatic events

#150

Post by eevo » Mon, Jun 12, 2023, 5:24 PM UTC

pcdoodle wrote: post #111

kfrzcode wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep calm, carry on, adapt. Slow-moving crises are not crises, they're problems, not emergencies. ---- Here, have some literature, down-voters! ---- [1] Nine long and nearly continuous sea level records were chosen from around the world to explore rates of change in sea level for 1904–2003. These records were found to capture the variability found in a larger number of stations over the last half century studied prev…

Wake me up when the banks stop giving 30 year loans for coastline property. Who do you trust? Bankers or the "experts".

Markets are irrational - yeah I'll trust where the data leads rather than a known overinflated housing market