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Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

thetimes.co.uk

281–290 of 1001 posts

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#281
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The map showing the clustering around the lab is not labelled in the article. It looks like the map from the senate report which used internet search history. I recall that their point in the original report was that there was a cluster of internet searches for flu-like symptoms clustered around the institute, rather than the market. There is no new direct evidence in the article, simply the weight of existing indire…

> It is not direct evidence, but under a weaker burden of proof (e.g. balance of probabilities) it is fairly convincing. - We have a bunch of evidence of WIV engineering SARS-1-like viruses because they talked about it before the pandemic. - We have zero evidence of them ever doing experiments on live SARS-2-like virus - We have zero evidence of the existence of a SARS-2-like progenitor virus - Before the pandemic th…

The nearest relatives to SARS-CoV-2 are found in Yunnan and Laos. The only known link to Wuhan is the Wuhan Institute of Virology sampled both areas.

They refuse to share their records with WHO or the NIH. That's a crucial caveat when saying there is no evidence they held a precursor. We don't know as they have refused to share their database.

The Times article is interesting as it suggests the work in DEFUSE to add furin cleavage sites went ahead and they passaged the virus in humanized mice. This would explain the furin site not seen in other sarbecoviruses and why humans topped the list for binding affinity from the outset.

Note the cases near the market are based on what David Relman described as "hopelessly impoverished" early case data. There was also sampling bias in retrospectively counting cases as market link was often required. WHO hasn't accepted market origin in part as there were likely much earlier cases than those in December linked to the market where no animals tested positive.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the people making that claim had been sane, instead of pushing it in the middle of; "it's not deadly, just a flu," "masks do nothing," "maybe a bit of bleach is fine in the lungs," "hydroxychloroquine cures everything," "no, wait, it is horse paste that cures everything," "the vaccine will kill you in X months, guaranteed," and "GREAT RESET," it'd be easier to transition into a serious discussion about studying de…

I honestly don’t see much difference in the level of extremism between everything you listed vs people deciding a specific topic is off limits just because the theory may not be politically correct, or because the alt opinion may have some factual basis.

Yes, of course, everyone should treat disingenuous propagandists as if they were attempting to have a serious discussion. If anyone objects to that, it is "deciding a topic is off-limits," which is insane. Of course we should let them run their horse paste grift and just patiently repeat over and over, "no, no, studies show it doesn't work. Please wear a mask to reduce spread."

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#283
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Huanan Seafood market paper has been heavily critized. Especially the fact that covid was not found in a single animal sample does make the evidence rather weak. In addition it seems that the lack of sampling from outside the market and the fact that the market is a busy place in the center of the city where the virus would likely be once it's spreading from person to person , does not really lend support to the…

They found racoon dog DNA, along with other susceptible animals, comingled with SARS-CoV-2 in samples from the market: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/science/covid-raccoon-dog... And the behavior of China behind that whole story looks very much like China tried to cover up the existence of susceptible animals at the market.

That was written before Jesse Bloom reanalyzed the data and found a negative correlation with raccoon dogs.

https://news.yahoo.com/raccoon-dogs-did-not-start-covid-19-n...

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#284
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is excusable for a lab to accidentally leak a contaminant. It is not excusable to cover it up and prevent a full investigation, like China has done.

[flagged]

The NIH terminated the Wuhan Institute of Virology's subaward for continued refusal to share records last year. WHO is still pleading with the PRC to share data on both the animal trade and Wuhan labs.

https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/nih-to-terminate-ecohealth-a...

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#286
post #173
post #55

After a quick read of the article, it presents no new data, and is replete with innuendo pointing at the Wuhan lab, rather than any direct evidence. Most importantly, the general reader should know that all labs researching viruses do research on dangerous viruses. After all there is no incentive to research benign viruses. So the fact that the Wuhan lab worked on coronaviruses is not in itself an indication of any i…

Also, before one draws conclusions based on the _kind_ of virus that is researched, coronaviruses aren't even uncommon. So better evidence is clearly necessary than innuendo.

It's not just a coronavirus, it's a sarbecovirus with a furin cleavage site never seen before in sarbecoviruses. The nearest relatives to SARS-CoV-2 are found in Yunnan and Laos. The only link with Wuhan is WIV's sampling in both locations.

In 2018, WIV was part of a proposal with EcoHealth Alliance and UNC to add furin cleavage sites into novel SARS-related bat coronaviruses. DARPA declined to fund it. This investigation suggests the work went ahead. Something Nick Patterson suggested often occurs even when funding is declined. WIV had both NIAID and CAS grants to study spillover risk of SARS-related coronaviruses. They were also doing classified work with the PLA from 2017.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#287
post #160
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those viruses are slightly more related to SARSCoV2 than RaTG13, however note 1) that they were found even further away from Wuhan than was RaTG13 and 2) that they still remain too different from SARSCoV2 to be its direct ancestor. One of the things we know for sure is that that about 50 years of evolutionary changes separate RaTG13 and BANAL-52 from SARSCoV2, so they are not its direct ancestors.

I don't understand this line of argument. The facts are that 1) the virus outbreak was in Wuhan, 2) that there ws a local lab working on virus samples that come from all over the world and 3) as far as we know, the particular strain that affected Wuhan is not local. Altogether, this should add confidence to the lab leak theory, not detract from it.

The nearest relatives to SARS-CoV-2 are found in Yunnan and Laos. Both areas WIV sampled prior to the pandemic and they haven't shared their records with WHO or the NIH.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#288
post #138
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And crucially, researchers from the Wuhan lab were studying bat virus samples from Laos, before covid. https://www.business-standard.com/amp/article/current-affair...

Those viruses are slightly more related to SARSCoV2 than RaTG13, however note 1) that they were found even further away from Wuhan than was RaTG13 and 2) that they still remain too different from SARSCoV2 to be its direct ancestor. One of the things we know for sure is that that about 50 years of evolutionary changes separate RaTG13 and BANAL-52 from SARSCoV2, so they are not its direct ancestors.

Yes, the article suggests they had a closer precursor. The nearest relatives to SARS-CoV-2 are found in Yunnan and Laos. They are both areas WIV sampled in studying the spillover risk of SARS-related coronaviruses. They haven't shared their records with WHO or the NIH.

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#289
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with Wuhan lab is that the Chinese dictatorship blocks any independent inquiry into it. If they had nothing to hide, they wouldn't be hiding everything. If that was a criminal case, this kind of behavior would be taken as a evidence of guilt.

> If they had nothing to hide, they wouldn't be hiding everything. If that was a criminal case, this kind of behavior would be taken as a evidence of guilt. No, it would not. First, dictatorships hide things all the time, whether there is something or nothing. It's just how they operate. (Many democratic governments do to btw. How often do we need freedom of information requests just to find out that it was totally b…

They have witheld records from the NIH which funded some of their SARS-related coronaviruses spillover research. They eventually terminated their subaward last year as a result. WHO has also been asking for lab data. Given the nearest relatives to SARS-CoV-2 are found in Yunnan and Laos where the WIV sampled it seems fairly clear what happened here.

https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/nih-to-terminate-ecohealth-a...

Re: Inside the Wuhan lab weeks before Covid

#290
post #175
post #55

After a quick read of the article, it presents no new data, and is replete with innuendo pointing at the Wuhan lab, rather than any direct evidence. Most importantly, the general reader should know that all labs researching viruses do research on dangerous viruses. After all there is no incentive to research benign viruses. So the fact that the Wuhan lab worked on coronaviruses is not in itself an indication of any i…

My position hasn't changed for years: if covid was really a lab creation we'd know, because someone would have told us. An email dump, a memo, a document, an interview. Something would have leaked out. The incentives are just too high and the access is too pervasive[1] to believe otherwise. Is it possible? Sure! Is it likewise possible that some of the circumstantial claims about WIV are true? Sure! But if someone ma…

It took over a decade to confirm the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak was the result of an outbreak. In that case intelligence did suspect an accidental cause although scientists argued contaminated meat was the cause. Information can be tightly controlled under authoritarian regimes. Recall those who even reported the outbreak in the community faced recriminations.

What is known is the nearest relatives to SARS-CoV-2 are found in Yunnan and Laos. Both areas WIV sampled and they refuse to share their records with WHO or the NIH.

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