I realize my accuracy claim is not at all correct. Said more for reference.
Ask HN: What is going on with Apple Weather?
11–20 of 34 posts
Re: Ask HN: What is going on with Apple Weather?
#12While I doubt it has the accuracy of darksky, it's worth noting there's been an alternative website with a similar layout: https://merrysky.net
Re: Ask HN: What is going on with Apple Weather?
#13It’s been terrible since the introduction of weather kit. It’s beyond useless.
Re: Ask HN: What is going on with Apple Weather?
#14Most people don’t understand how rain is actually forecast. The forecast applies to an entire area, not just your point on the map. That means it could rain somewhere in the area of the forecast and the forecast would be correct. However, your experience of the forecast could feel entirely wrong.
Even if you see a 100% chance of rain, your specific location could remain dry. Likewise, a 10% chance of rain could have just you being rained on all day.
I personally find that I need to combine a forecast with a radar to understand how the weather is actually going to pan out for a day.
Explanation of rain forecast: https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop
Re: Ask HN: What is going on with Apple Weather?
#15I’m on the latest iOS version and I’m experiencing the same. However, my wife is a few minor versions behind, and her‘s is much more accurate.
I’ve switched to Carrot weather instead and it offers Apple Weather as a source which gives similar results as the main weather app. Seems to be something wrong with the weather API. I use Foreca as a source primarily now.
My understanding is the pandemic actually caused some serious gaps in weather forecasts. Some commercial flights transmit weather conditions to central authorities , which are extremely useful for building granular forecasts.
During the pandemic, commercial air traffic plummeted. While it has returned to normal levels, it seems the models are still missing some historical data.
Re: Ask HN: What is going on with Apple Weather?
#16Most people don’t understand how rain is actually forecast. The forecast applies to an entire area, not just your point on the map. That means it could rain somewhere in the area of the forecast and the forecast would be correct. However, your experience of the forecast could feel entirely wrong. Even if you see a 100% chance of rain, your specific location could remain dry. Likewise, a 10% chance of rain could have…
How I think about it is …
If the weather says “10% chance of rain”, what that means is in my city - there’s a 100% chance water will fall from the sky. But only 10% of us in the city will experience it.
Re: Ask HN: What is going on with Apple Weather?
#17This always happens in summer IMO.
Re: Ask HN: What is going on with Apple Weather?
#18Most people don’t understand how rain is actually forecast. The forecast applies to an entire area, not just your point on the map. That means it could rain somewhere in the area of the forecast and the forecast would be correct. However, your experience of the forecast could feel entirely wrong. Even if you see a 100% chance of rain, your specific location could remain dry. Likewise, a 10% chance of rain could have…
How I think about it is … If the weather says “10% chance of rain”, what that means is in my city - there’s a 100% chance water will fall from the sky. But only 10% of us in the city will experience it.
That’s a really nice, practical way to think about it.
After all, most people are trying to figure out how it will impact their plans. That type of positioning really puts it into perspective.
Re: Ask HN: What is going on with Apple Weather?
#19Most people don’t understand how rain is actually forecast. The forecast applies to an entire area, not just your point on the map. That means it could rain somewhere in the area of the forecast and the forecast would be correct. However, your experience of the forecast could feel entirely wrong. Even if you see a 100% chance of rain, your specific location could remain dry. Likewise, a 10% chance of rain could have…
How I think about it is … If the weather says “10% chance of rain”, what that means is in my city - there’s a 100% chance water will fall from the sky. But only 10% of us in the city will experience it.
That’s not exactly what it means, it’s a blended percentage of both the chance of any rain in an area multiplied by the coverage of that rain over the affected area. So a 50% chance it will rain somewhere, and if it rains it might rain in 50% of the area, would result in a 25% overall chance of rain. See https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf