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Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

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Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#31

Post by wenc »

henrikschroder wrote: post #22
wenc wrote: post #9

I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days with Apple Vision Pro. (John C Dvorak was also commenting about the unreleased iPhone at the time of writing) Reality is the best teacher and cynics (as opposed to honest critics) are best disregarded and downvoted. When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to res…

> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technol…

You assume Apple is entering the VR market. I already think this is the wrong take.

To me the market is still being discovered. There are many products whose business models are not what is apparent. We make category mistakes when we pigeonhole new products into known existing categories. Right off the bat for me the Vision Pro is a multi monitor replacement that you can travel with — that’s just the one thing that hits my gut.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#32

Post by russellbeattie »

I joined Nokia in 2008 about a year after the iPhone launch, and even at that late date, the general consensus was that it wasn't a big deal and/or just an American thing, similar to Japan's i-mode.

For those of us who knew what a leap ahead it was - the capacitive touch screen alone changed everything, let alone the usability and functionality like the physical mute switch - it was an uphill battle to convince decision makers how much of a paradigm shift it was. In fact my first boss, the CTO based in Palo Alto where I worked - had a boardroom showdown about it and lost, resigning immediately after.

Dvorak wasn't the only one with his head stuck in the sand. A lot of actual industry players just couldn't get it either. Blackberry for example.

The most amazing thing to me, honestly, is how quickly Google shifted gears. Android first launched with an emulator that looked exactly like the Nokia E71, Symbian phone with the exact same UX. I posted a video of it on Vimeo back then [1] (it's still there!!!). Within the year they had turned 90° and copied the iPhone in almost every way. That's Silicon Valley flexibility and drive which Nokia and other established mobile companies just couldn't match.

1. https://vimeo.com/384481

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#33

Post by acdha »

henrikschroder wrote: post #15
i386 wrote: post #3

John C. Dvorak is famous for bad takes. But if you’re alluding to Apple Vision being successful because he was an iPhone naysayer, you’re wrong. Reality doesn’t work that way. The jury is still out on VR and it changes little when Apple enters the market at that price point and there’s not a killer problem for it.

I agree. The iPhone came out in 2007, and that year over a billion cell phones were sold. That's a solid market that Apple entered, and the iPhone brought obvious improvements over existing devices. Apple solved the problem of wanting a large screen, a full keyboard, in a small device. That was an existing pain-point, they solved it, everyone understood that this was the future of cell phones. In 2022, there were 20…

> Apple has now entered this market with a device that's 10x as expensive as the competition, and one that doesn't solve any existing obvious pain points.

1X - they’re in the same market as the HoloLens, not low-end gaming VR like Oculus, which is why the hardware costs more. It’s definitely far from a proven market but I would treat this class of device as the first serious contender — for example, the infinite display concept is appealing but a device like the Oculus Pro doesn’t have the resolution to make sharp text or refresh quickly. If this lives up to the promise, it might tempt anyone who wants a portable or private alternative to setting up a bunch of external displays, especially if they work on 3D things or collaborate. It’s not going to be an instance best selling gadget but I think a lot of the people I’ve known who have jobs involving things like mechanical engineering, architecture, interior design, medical or scientific imaging, data visualization, modeling, etc. are going to consider it and these devices are cheap when you’re paying more than that annually for software licenses and it’s a few days billable time.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#34

Post by thx-2718 »

henrikschroder wrote: post #22
wenc wrote: post #9

I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days with Apple Vision Pro. (John C Dvorak was also commenting about the unreleased iPhone at the time of writing) Reality is the best teacher and cynics (as opposed to honest critics) are best disregarded and downvoted. When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to res…

> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technol…

I think with VR it's important to remember the major consumers of it aren't adults yet if they're even born yet.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#35

Post by dan-dan »

i386 wrote: post #7
mjamesaustin wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many analysts and pundits aren't acting like the jury's still out, though. Similarly to the iPhone, many who haven't touched it are reporting it DOA, even as some people are leaving actual demos with intensely positive reviews.

The iPhone solved an incredibly useful problem because it put the internet in your pocket. No one has a “computer room” at home. What is the problem that the vision solves? I can watch TV on a huge screen in my living room? I already have a large screen in my living room. It’s like stuff I can already easily do but with extra steps and a $3500 US price tag.

This puts screen real estate in your pocket/bag. Also gesture and eye control.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#36

Post by harry8 »

kmeisthax wrote: post #14
zipster90 wrote: post #4

My first thought before I clicked this was "I bet Dvorak wrote this" and whaddaya know...

John C. Dvorak is the Jim Kramer of technology journalism.

Oh come on now that's not fair. No matter how utterly woeful and corrupt tech journalism had been (and horrific is the adjective I'd use) drawing parallels to Jim Kramer is just unseemly.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#37

Post by Despegar »

henrikschroder wrote: post #22
wenc wrote: post #9

I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days with Apple Vision Pro. (John C Dvorak was also commenting about the unreleased iPhone at the time of writing) Reality is the best teacher and cynics (as opposed to honest critics) are best disregarded and downvoted. When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to res…

> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technol…

All that says is that the iPhone was a uniquely good business and opportunity that will likely never be matched by any product for the next few decades. There isn't anyone claiming the Apple Vision Pro will be as big as the iPhone in terms of sales or importance. It could however be a new modern computer that takes over many functions performed on a Mac today. The TAM will expand based on its capability, much like it did for the PC during the 70s and 80s.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#39

Post by holoduke »

Off topic, but this site has literally 6 advertising blocks in the article and still it asks for a subscription. I am running a multi million user platform, but in no way i need to have such a destructive monetization model. My users would flee. My platform would die quickly.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#40

Post by mistersquid »

John C. Dvorak is an admitted anti-Apple troll who went all in on click-bait to drive advertising revenue: a pioneer, if you will. [0]

Eventually, he pissed of his editorship about 5G advertorial and was fired. [1] [2]

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMQv0j29WHA

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20181007013846/https://medium.co...

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18157869

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