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Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

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Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#21

Post by ekam »

henrikschroder wrote: post #15
i386 wrote: post #3

John C. Dvorak is famous for bad takes. But if you’re alluding to Apple Vision being successful because he was an iPhone naysayer, you’re wrong. Reality doesn’t work that way. The jury is still out on VR and it changes little when Apple enters the market at that price point and there’s not a killer problem for it.

I agree. The iPhone came out in 2007, and that year over a billion cell phones were sold. That's a solid market that Apple entered, and the iPhone brought obvious improvements over existing devices. Apple solved the problem of wanting a large screen, a full keyboard, in a small device. That was an existing pain-point, they solved it, everyone understood that this was the future of cell phones. In 2022, there were 20…

Apple isn't there right now, but the ultimate goal appears to replace computers, phones, and monitors, which is why Vision has a laptop card and operates independently. It's not born of the same concept as eg, a Meta quest which is more gaming oriented.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#22

Post by henrikschroder »

wenc wrote: post #9

I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days with Apple Vision Pro. (John C Dvorak was also commenting about the unreleased iPhone at the time of writing) Reality is the best teacher and cynics (as opposed to honest critics) are best disregarded and downvoted. When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to res…

> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience

Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technologies for consuming content on mobile. They got the form factor and keyboard right. It was expensive, but not 10x more expensive. The iPhone replaced a device that everyone was already willingly carrying around in their pockets, and had been carrying around for over a decade at that point.

The global VR headset market moved 20 million devices last year. For most people, VR headsets are a gimmick, a novelty, they bought one, tried it, put it on a shelf. People aren't carrying one around, people aren't using it as their main computing interface, people aren't throwing away their monitors or TVs or gaming consoles. If someone has a VR headset, it's a non-essential plaything.

The Apple Vision is ~10x as expensive, in a market that's 1/50th of what the mobile phone market was in 2007, and it's still not solving obvious pain points that are stopping people from getting a VR headset. What problems does it solve? What device does it replace?

> When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to reserve judgement and see how things play out and not overgeneralize from my own limited preferences. I tell myself that I am one small speck in the market — i do not represent the market.

"God^H^H^HApple moves in mysterious ways, it's best not to question The Lord!"

Come on. Apple Vision entering the VR market is fundamentally different from the iPhone entering the mobile phone market, which is why posts like this, trying to make Apple Vision criticism equivalent to iPhone criticism, are completely wrong.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#23

Post by 2muchcoffeeman »

zipster90 wrote: post #4

My first thought before I clicked this was "I bet Dvorak wrote this" and whaddaya know...

Thanks for clicking through and TOFTT.

Sometimes opinions are wrong in hindsight but they could have been totally logical at the time. But that guy.

This is not really worth then.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#24

Post by Scotrix »

i386 wrote: post #7
mjamesaustin wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many analysts and pundits aren't acting like the jury's still out, though. Similarly to the iPhone, many who haven't touched it are reporting it DOA, even as some people are leaving actual demos with intensely positive reviews.

The iPhone solved an incredibly useful problem because it put the internet in your pocket. No one has a “computer room” at home. What is the problem that the vision solves? I can watch TV on a huge screen in my living room? I already have a large screen in my living room. It’s like stuff I can already easily do but with extra steps and a $3500 US price tag.

Let’s assume it’s comfortable to wear (Oculus and Quest weren’t for the long run), works without issues and smooth and that I would expect at least from Apple even though it seems that they put every year a little less attention to detail (okay it’s still 90% better than anything else but i think this matters for a device and state of this category really a lot) it will have a good chance to replace all my screens (3 plus laptop and tv) and I’ll get very excited and buckle up the hefty price…

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#25

Post by amelius »

ttul wrote: post #13
chrgy wrote: post #6

People who are crazy enough that think they can change the world are only the ones who do, so when Steve Jobs has to deal with these non-sense so he never said what he is working on, he focused on shipping great products: "There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can…

"Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower." - Steve Jobs.

He was more a religious leader than anything else.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#26

Post by josu »

>In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp. and Motorola Inc.

Even the closing sentence is funny; consolidated into bankruptcy. But hey, at least the article is consistent in getting everything wrong.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#27

Post by coldcode »

mjamesaustin wrote: post #5
i386 wrote: post #3

John C. Dvorak is famous for bad takes. But if you’re alluding to Apple Vision being successful because he was an iPhone naysayer, you’re wrong. Reality doesn’t work that way. The jury is still out on VR and it changes little when Apple enters the market at that price point and there’s not a killer problem for it.

Many analysts and pundits aren't acting like the jury's still out, though. Similarly to the iPhone, many who haven't touched it are reporting it DOA, even as some people are leaving actual demos with intensely positive reviews.

It's not out yet, anyway. Dismissing something that won't ship for another 8 months is not useful. The Dvorak article was likewise before shipping. I've heard this for everything Apple ever did since the Bondi iMac.

I don't look at it as a headset but as a new kind of computer-like device with included display, and it's not even 1.0 yet. The cost seems crazy, but my Mac Studio+Display cost me more. If you think of it as equivalent to that, it's not all that out of line.

Now imagine what it will become, similar to how the iPhone changed massively over the years.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#28

Post by nelsonsflagpole »

henrikschroder wrote: post #15
i386 wrote: post #3

John C. Dvorak is famous for bad takes. But if you’re alluding to Apple Vision being successful because he was an iPhone naysayer, you’re wrong. Reality doesn’t work that way. The jury is still out on VR and it changes little when Apple enters the market at that price point and there’s not a killer problem for it.

I agree. The iPhone came out in 2007, and that year over a billion cell phones were sold. That's a solid market that Apple entered, and the iPhone brought obvious improvements over existing devices. Apple solved the problem of wanting a large screen, a full keyboard, in a small device. That was an existing pain-point, they solved it, everyone understood that this was the future of cell phones. In 2022, there were 20…

When I first saw the Apple Vision my first thought was that this isn't a new form of VR headset as much as it is a new type of display device. My work environment is somewhat space constrained and I would welcome having what is effectively a massive monitor without any space requirement. Imagine working in a (stationary) car, in a hotel room, anywhere you can't carry a massive monitor and this becomes an attractive idea. Whether that is what this device offers remains to be seen.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#29

Post by layer8 »

WTFruit wrote: post #16
i386 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The iPhone solved an incredibly useful problem because it put the internet in your pocket. No one has a “computer room” at home. What is the problem that the vision solves? I can watch TV on a huge screen in my living room? I already have a large screen in my living room. It’s like stuff I can already easily do but with extra steps and a $3500 US price tag.

I’m at a job where, for the first time in my life, I’m desperate for screen real estate. Up until now I’ve been quite happy with a 15” laptop, I never even felt the need to have a bigger screen than that let alone multiple monitors, but just yesterday I set up a third 24” monitor because the two my job started me with didn’t feel like enough. Replacing those with a headset would not only give me even MORE room to wor…

But are you willing to wear a front-heavy pound of tech on your head all day for that? Maybe you are, but I wager few will. The counter then is that the tech will get more compact and lighter. Well, maybe, or maybe not as much, let’s see in a couple of years.

Re: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

#30

Post by westurner »

Competitors at the time included Nokia (Symbian OS), Palm, Windows Mobile, Blackberry, OpenMoko, and Android; but not Apple Newton OS (1987-1998).

Cisco IOS (for network gear) was created in the 1980s.

It was possible to run Linux on the 1st gen iPod (2001). IIRC the Archos Jukebox also had a 2.5" drive enclosure with audio (and then video on a color LCD) decoding.

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