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The US is building factories at a fast rate

businessinsider.com

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Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#251

Post by marianatom »

pphysch wrote: post #197
marianatom wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually US and China is disengaging, and we can already see what would happen if trade were to stop tomorrow, by what's happening now. China June 2023: Massive reverse migration by laborers back to countryside, Shanghai population down 135k compared to 2021 https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3215126/s... . Physical retail closures up to 80%. Entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. Re…

You can tell any story you want by cherry-picking headlines and ignoring the broader context. Pundits like Gordon Chang have been predicting post-Mao China's imminent collapse since 1989. They've always been spectacularly wrong because they don't understand China and don't want to.

You can brush any counterpoints away you want by mentioning pundits who are too early in their prediction.

Sure, let's talk about broader context and macro trends. unless something big changes, these macro trends won't go away:

- alignment of dictatorship vs free countries. China, Russia, North Korea, Iran vs US, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, India, Australia, Philippines, Canada.

- dictatorship is losing. China is propping up all the dictators around the world, and its losing that power

- China demographics collapse

- China's rising and insolvent local government debts, which can no longer generate income by selling land. because China has too many buildings - 6 billion by last count. and demographics collapse. and lack of jobs

- Tech sanctions on China. China's inability to catch up on tech.

which indicates China's stagnation and decline for the next 10-20 years.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#252

Post by marianatom »

mhuffman wrote: post #183
marianatom wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China does seem to have clear eyes with it comes to world politics You're hyping up Xi Jing Ping, who is considered an idiot in most elite circles including Putin, too much. One belt and one road is now considered a failure with Italy, the most prominent member, dropping out of it this year. Most of the countries that took on the debt are unable to pay it back, and China has had to forgive a lot of the loans recent…

>You're hyping up Xi Jing Ping, who is considered an idiot in most elite circles including Putin, too much. I don't really care what Putin says but I do think they are thinking more long-term. Only here and in Europe do people think in terms of election cycles. Don't get me wrong, I am not a Xi fanboy, and I definitely don't want to the US to be like China in general terms, but I just disagree with you. I think they…

I think you misread my point. My point regarding NAFTA was that US did not actually lose a portion of its economic output when the manufacturing declined. The old factory workers switched to a more profitable job, thus the income increase. In fact, the country was then joined by migrant workers from Mexico because of NAFTA taking away their farming jobs in Mexico. Thus US's economy thrived in 90s.

But when China lose most of the foreign manufacturing jobs, it lost a significant portion of its economic output. Because now these workers just went back home to countryside to farm.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#253

Post by jhallenworld »

mgr86 wrote: post #8
obblekk wrote: post #2

> The US has added around 800,000 jobs in manufacturing employment over the last two years, employing around 13 million workers It's too early to know, but if it turns out the solution to decades of economic misery for middle class blue collar workers was 1. 50% tariffs on China, and 2. $100B of subsidies to chip makers and green tech... The reversal of Reaganomics we're living through will become permanent for at le…

> Maybe a good time to start a company selling to the government if only I knew what the government wanted to buy. Besides weaponry that is.

Well there are grants, sales maybe if you deliver on the request..

https://www.sbir.gov/sbirsearch/topic/current

Pick science or health instead of defense from the list on the left.. but you would be missing out on "MDA23-T002: AI-Informed Algorithms Combined with Differential Game Theory to Support Swarm-on-Swarm Engagements".. Basically to help them build Skynet.

An eye opener is the list of top contractors to the US government:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_100_Contractors_of_the_U.S...

Caltech, MIT, Stanford... SpaceX is 53.

The coolest one is Atlantic Diving Supply (No. 24): it started as a small dive shop that just happened to be located in Virginia Beach.. some Navy Seals kept ordering things from them.. then 9/11 happened..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Diving_Supply

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#254

Post by JKCalhoun »

gumballindie wrote: post #162
no_wizard wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a professor remark once (this is circa 2009) that we should all learn a highly skilled trade around advanced manufacturing because eventually offshoring will reverse itself and by your early 30s you'll be in a prime position to profit immensely off the re-shoring of advanced manufacturing equipment and processes Maybe he was right. I'm in my early 30s now, and I don't regret becoming a software engineer, but al…

> the highly skilled tradesmen I've met in the last 5 years make at least what I do, often more, and have the benefit of actually owning their own businesses or real, meaningful slices of other ones. _This_. A lot of software developers think they are the only high earners out there. Skilled tradesmen are making a killing in europe as well. And unlike software engineers, the path to starting an actual business is muc…

Guy down the street has a (house) painting business. I am sure he started out as a painter before deciding to own his own company.

He heads out to the sites/jobs he has that day to see that the teams know what to do, then heads to the golf course.

Sometime in the late afternoon he makes the rounds again to see how the jobs have progressed that day. Does some book-keeping in the evening.

I envy him. I would be surprised if he completed college (although I know his kids all have now).

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#255

Post by maxilevi »

lumost wrote: post #233
maxilevi wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Starting a software business as a SWE requires almost no investment

Perhaps, but scaling one requires extreme investment. Recent startups are raising close to a billion to take on competitive markets.

Sure, but I doubt your average tradesman starting a business is targeting billion dollar markets.

Scaling software to the same level of revenue as a trade business is as easy if not easier. For one you don’t need that many employees

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#256

Post by BetaDeltaAlpha »

maxilevi wrote: post #255
lumost wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps, but scaling one requires extreme investment. Recent startups are raising close to a billion to take on competitive markets.

Sure, but I doubt your average tradesman starting a business is targeting billion dollar markets. Scaling software to the same level of revenue as a trade business is as easy if not easier. For one you don’t need that many employees

Scaling software to the same level of revenue as a trade business is a sure way to get run over by the VC backed competition.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#257

Post by anonymouskimmer »

Solvency wrote: post #203
vineyardmike wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’ll think about it from the tech perspective: the companies that control marketplaces and access hold all the power. Sure you have companies like apple that make $$$ from hardware, but most HW players in tech get slowly replaced offshore. Silicon Valley was silicon valley because of hardware. Now it’s mostly software, and HW is increasingly a commodity. It’s the same thing elsewhere in the economy… it’s easier to s…

What's stopping software from becoming a commodity?

Learning curves and compatibility.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#258

Post by refurb »

deeg wrote: post #60
obblekk wrote: post #2

> The US has added around 800,000 jobs in manufacturing employment over the last two years, employing around 13 million workers It's too early to know, but if it turns out the solution to decades of economic misery for middle class blue collar workers was 1. 50% tariffs on China, and 2. $100B of subsidies to chip makers and green tech... The reversal of Reaganomics we're living through will become permanent for at le…

My guess is that the increase in tariffs had little, if anything, to do with it; the article doesn't mention it but does cite CHIPS and the IRA. If anything the tariffs were one of the causes of our recent spike of inflation. My own opinion is that 40 years of globalization have lifted a billion people out of poverty and now the global pay scales aren't so vastly different. It is becoming more economically viable to…

Wasn't the CHIPs act passed less than a year ago? The 800,000 is over the last two years.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#260

Post by jhallenworld »

HeyLaughingBoy wrote: post #141
mgr86 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe a good time to start a company selling to the government if only I knew what the government wanted to buy. Besides weaponry that is.

"All you young fellas building tech companies that aren't making any money, meanwhile Town Hall has a contract out for $100k/year to clean the floors and no one's bidding on it." --Some old dude about 15 years ago.

From sam.gov:

https://sam.gov/opp/57075abba039462f8ed76c2641de3394/view

"The contract requirements are geographically spread over the State of Alabama in the following counties: Clarke, Monroe, Wilcox, Dallas, Autauga, Lowndes, Montgomery and Elmore along the R.R. “Bob” Woodruff Lake, William “Bill” Dannelly Reservoir and Claiborne Lake. Alabama River Lakes consists of approximately 1,092 miles of shoreline, 39,452 acres of water and 68,006 acres of land. Facilities include 6 Class A campgrounds, 38-day use/land water access areas, 9 Multi-purpose Areas, 3 Visitor Centers/museum, 9 maintained but undeveloped Natural Resource areas, 2 Contractor maintenance Compounds, along with a Resource Management Office and other associated operational facilities. Provide services for maintenance, repair, minor construction (as defined in AR-420-1 and DA PAM 420-11) including all planning, supervision, administration, labor, equipment, materials, supplies, and replacement or repair parts that is required for performance of this contract.

The contract scope of work will include, but is not limited to, some or all of the following types of work: maintenance and repair of buildings, facilities, offices, water and electrical systems, concrete structures, maintenance facilities, operational areas, roadways, vehicles, boat docks, bathhouses, washhouses, toilets, gatehouses, security fences, sanitary disposal systems, launching ramps, playground equipment, bulletin boards, game courts, playgrounds, telephone lines, picnic sites, campsites, and other related facilities."

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