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The US is building factories at a fast rate

businessinsider.com

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Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#171

Post by jstarfish »

wizofaus wrote: post #78
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. The factories follow the Cheap Labor. From US to China, then it was China to Thailand/SKorea, then from Thailand to India. Probably don't have chain correct, and it is different for different industries. But there was definitely a progression of 'local salary goes up', 'time to move to next cheapest country'.

Surely though there's still plenty of places in the world that, on the basis of labour costs, it would be vastly cheaper to operate than in the US. On that basis I'm not convinced wage growth in SE Asia is the primary reason the US manufacturing industry is deciding to reshore. Is the same phenomenon occurring in other wealthy countries that haven't put in place taxpayer funded incentives to do so?

> I'm not convinced wage growth in SE Asia is the primary reason the US manufacturing industry is deciding to reshore.

It's not. This is disaster planning.

We're being forced to bring production back home because we can't keep outsourcing to a region subject to control by a potential adversary. If war breaks out with China, access to Taiwan for chips or Vietnam for socks is going to become difficult. Blockades will be immediate.

If this were about money, we'd move production to South America. That we're keeping it this close to home after years of shopping everything globally suggests we're building infrastructure for a supply chain that can't be interfered with by foreign governments.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#172

Post by activiation »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #169
activiation wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked for a while at a farm processing potatoes ... Let me tell you that they aren't lacking Mexicans (most people didn't speak English and this was in Florida)

TIL that there are potatoes grown in FL.

Lots of peanuts too

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#173

Post by marianatom »

pphysch wrote: post #161
marianatom wrote: post #11

Meanwhile in China: - exports plunge by 7.5% in May, far more than expected https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/07/chinas-exports-plunge-by-7po... - profit tumbles 18% in April https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-industrial-profits... - chip progress stagnating. Oppo chip design unit completely shut down https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/12/oppo-chip-disbands-phone-c... . Japan stops shipping semiconductor equipments to…

Despite all these cherry-picked numbers, China's economy will grow by 4-6% this year vs. USA's 0-2%. https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-growth-gdp-china-economy...

One government sponsored number, vs multiple numbers pointing to China's economic decline, which multinationals check in order to gauge the real health of China's economy. Multinationals know the real numbers, which is why they're all leaving.

What other numbers don't lie? 20.4% youth unemployment rate https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/record-youth-unemployment-st.... 22% drop in daily home sales in 2023 vs 2022 https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-april-prop.... Yuan losing 7% value against dollar https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/investing/china-covid-yuan-us.... and on and on.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#174

Post by epistasis »

monero-xmr wrote: post #81
epistasis wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the first time I've seen a non-politically motivated accusation that cutting off money had anything at all to do with their failure. The tech reason was that they had a way to make thin film panels which was super promising for driving down costs due to a silicon shortage. But then Diamond based silicon tech emerged, eliminating the silicon shortage and reducing input materials, which outcompeted thin film on…

Of course. But maybe the government shouldn’t be picking winners and losers, and gambling with my tax dollars.

The government wasn't picking winners and losers, anymore than VCs or banks pick winners and losers. It was loans for well proven tech development, and has a fantastic track record for financial success.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#175

Post by marianatom »

pphysch wrote: post #163
kcb wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It always seemed to me that the country buying all the stuff holds the real power. It just feels far more possible to find alternative manufacturers than it is to find alternative markets.

This argument, on an international scale, has never made sense to me. Have its proponents never been poor? If US-China trade were to stop tomorrow, US would suffer 100x more than China due to lack of critical goods. China would have a dearth of greenbacks.

Actually US and China is disengaging, and we can already see what would happen if trade were to stop tomorrow, by what's happening now.

China June 2023: Massive reverse migration by laborers back to countryside, Shanghai population down 135k compared to 2021 https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3215126/s.... Physical retail closures up to 80%. Entirely empty malls in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. Real estate prices dropping 30-50% in tier 1 cities. Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing having 50k+ used homes for sale in span of 2 months. Shipping containers pile up 7 stories in every port https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3210870/c....

US June 2023: not much.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#176

Post by anlaw »

FpUser wrote: post #158
NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that a problem for the United States, for instance? Do officeholders in the United States have any responsibility to people in foreign countries beyond that in ratified treaties? Do we have any moral obligation to make restitution for our great-great-grandparents' crimes to the great-great-grandchildren of the victims? And what level of punishment is going too far?

You do not have to do shit. But you do not live in the vacuum and unless you take interests / complaints of the other parties into considerations sooner or later you would face problems. Karma.

Well given the policy of the US the last 70 years we’re boned if karma is coming for us.

Back to shrugging off the idea poor people on the other side of oceans are going to pick a fight with me specifically. I live in the middle; after rowing over the Pacific they’ll have to get through a lot of other people first.

Hey you should probably stop buying toxic technology and flying; would hate for the kids to karma your elder form.

Shit n hellfire; anyone making use of modern technology has little wiggle room to pontificate about why and how others are oblivious to reality of their choices.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#177

Post by dirtyid »

edgyquant wrote: post #119
totalZero wrote: post #9

I'm not cheering the victory until I can buy a made-in-USA iPhone. China totally outclasses the USA when it comes to manufacturing. https://www.statista.com/chart/28031/manufacturing-racing-ba...

When it comes to light manufacturing, sure, but they’ve struggled to just get to a point where they can do sophisticated heavy manufacturing at any kind of quality and this has been the result of US policy helping them out here. It wasn’t until Trump that this process ended and it became policy to not allow China to build a competitive heavy manufacturing industry. We will see if they pull through and become a rival…

This was situation 10+ years ago. PRC's been phasing out low value add light industry for years. US export controls tried to limit PRC modernization even pre-Trump (see 5axis CNC bans, trying to cripple PRC compute under Obama). US didn't help - they were outplayed despite efforts to contain PRC progress. Yet PRC inidgenous heavy industries now basically competitive in nearly every sector hence trade wars since PRC indigenous efforts are increasingly displacing western products. Exception being aerospace and semi both of which are closable gaps. Everywhere else PRC has more or less caught up. By most metrics, PRC's already pulled through and still rapidly climbing up value chain, innovation indexes etc. The "effects" is PRC increasingly entrenched in supply chains everywhere, including friendshore destinations that's basically reassembling PRC components - see PRC trade with said destinations increasing proportional to US imports from said countries. It's how PRC went from capturing $8 in assembling fees from each iphone 3G to 25% of value add since iPhoneX. Or how PRC become largest car exporter.

That linked comment is also cherry picked stupid. PRC exports to US/west near record levels, WHILE exports to global south has officially surpassed western bloc, i.e. PRC is MORE factory of the world than at any point in the past. The drop in exports is due recent to global economic downturn that saps demand everywhere, but it's sapping from hilariously record high exports during covid. Meanwhile PRC export:GDP is like 20% down from 35% high in 00s, i.e. it's one of the less export dependant major economies in the world responsible for substantial global exports (including heavy industry) but it's not even an export driven economy anymore.

On demographic front, the reality is PRC is minting OECD combined in skilled talent every year and last 5 years of PRC topping citation (controlled for quality), innovation index is just lag affect of PRC growing with fraction of that talent. The PRC miracle is basically doing all that with ~20% skilled workforce, because at PRC scale that's enough to be globally competitive. Now it's in process to grow that competitive workforce to 50-70% skilled in next 30 years, which is adding anohter couple US worth of talent into the mix.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#178

Post by Xcelerate »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #21
Xcelerate wrote: post #15

Perhaps I'm just bad at economics, but it always seemed to me that the countries making all the stuff would eventually hold all the power (and I say this as someone working in tech who produces nothing tangible). The fact that it costs exorbitant amounts to construct new buildings, railways, etc. in the U.S. and how our cities almost look antiquated or frozen in time compared to Asian cities shows that we missed a ge…

Compared to A Tier cities in some Asian countries? Does Santa Barbara or NYC really look antiquated compared to Mumbai? Or Da Nang? Or Fukuoka? Maybe if you're trying to compare Detroit to Shenzhen or Tokyo.

NYC looks older than Paris somehow, even though that shouldn’t make sense.

Re: The US is building factories at a fast rate

#179

Post by cryptonector »

obblekk wrote: post #2

> The US has added around 800,000 jobs in manufacturing employment over the last two years, employing around 13 million workers It's too early to know, but if it turns out the solution to decades of economic misery for middle class blue collar workers was 1. 50% tariffs on China, and 2. $100B of subsidies to chip makers and green tech... The reversal of Reaganomics we're living through will become permanent for at le…

> The reversal of Reaganomics

Reagan wanted to get the U.S. back on the gold standard, which leads to balanced trade. He was talked out of it by Fed chair Volker.

What you call Reaganomics goes back to Nixon. I suppose that's probably just as well for you, but I don't think any administration between 1971 and 1991 (or even 2011 or now even) really thought "hey, let's take blue collar jobs and send them to Japan, and later China! haha! suckers!". Nixon didn't take the U.S. off the gold standard because that was something he yearned to do -- he did it because it was the only way to fund the then federal deficit. Sure, we would have been better off staying on a gold standard and being forced to cut that deficit, but every politician from Nixon onward -Democrat and Republican alike- kicked that can into the future. It's a non-partisan issue. Getting off the gold standard created easy credit junkies everywhere, and here we are. Junkies don't care about ideology.

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