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The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

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Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#321

Post by megous »

grugagag wrote: post #296
autoexec wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also weird how totally unnecessary all of this is. You could probably say that about most wars really, but this one is entirely pointless. Russia didn't have to invade at all. They can go home at any time and it'd all just stop. It'll be hard enough to deal with all the loss and damage that's been done already.

Russia’s image as superpower had been damaged. If Russia end the conflict Putin dies. He won’t let that happen

USSR was a superpower before it failed. Russia, not so much.

Anyway, I noticed you're writing about the image of being so, so nevermind...

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#322

Post by yablak »

spaceheater wrote: post #312
vlovich123 wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Collapsed due to damage“. Looks pretty clearly like an explosion. Russian state news agency. The fine folks that bring news reports like “local nerd found hitting himself by school bully”

US 'cannot say conclusively' what happened in dam breach - Kirby Yeah right. lol. And that is a clear signal that Ukraine was behind it. But as always the warmongers will try 4d chess to convince you Russia did it, like it blew nord stream, attacked crimea bridge, and shot missiles into Poland.

Strikes me as "let's confirm and be extra sure before making public statements". But feel free to tell the story you want to hear.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#323

Post by Paradigma11 »

wkat4242 wrote: post #262
polotics wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once the Kerch bridge is cut and the southern offensive gets through to the Azov sea, they won't have any other choice but to scamper from Crimea.

I don't know. Sevastopol is super important to them. I hope they won't do anything drastic. It's the only warm water port Russia has on the black sea. And thus full year access to the mediterranean. I doubt they will give it up. Perhaps the rest of Crimea, I could imagine. But not the base.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiysk would like to have a word with you.

"Novorossiysk is the biggest Russian seaport. In 2019 cargo turnover amounted to 142,5m tons[26] In 2021 cargo turnover amounted to 105,2m tons[27]

Novorossiysk is connected by rail and highways to the main industrial and population centres of Russia, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia. "

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#324

Post by _kbh_ »

caoilte wrote: post #290
jemmyw wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are we losing? Ukraine was supposed to fall in days. For them, even holding the line isn't losing, and they've pushed the line back. I talked about politics that I don't like here it is: the west is not losing, it's winning substantially. Even if Ukraine doesn't win back territory, the west sees Russia bash itself against a wall losing men and equipment, and showing its hand operationally. And the amount spent is…

> And the amount spent is a pittance to western governments I don't consider well north of $100billion and climbing to be a pittance. > We could, and imo we should, give Ukraine to means to win. And yet we haven't. The Ukrainians are still rationing artillery fire, appear to have lost most of their air defence cover and long ago lost air cover. If we were serious about winning the US government would have switched to…

> I don't consider well north of $100billion and climbing to be a pittance.

You may not but the west does, the US is spending less then 10% of its yearly military budget and is mostly giving Ukraine stuff that was going go be replaced soon anyway.

> a negotiated peace. Tricky given all of the times the US has betrayed Russian trust over the last ten years. The only plausible route feels like a massive neutral DMZ (probably everything east of the Dnipro) administered by a BRICS led UN peace keeping force.

Why should Ukraine trust a negotiated peace with a country who already has multiple international agreements to not invade them?.

Ukraine already has a negotiated peace agreement with Russia it’s called the Budapest memorandum it didn’t stop them invading in 2014 or 2022.

All a negotiated peace does is allow Russia to rearm itself and try and grab more land.

We have tried appeasing Putin in the past when the west did nothing about what happened in Georgia, Chechnya and in Ukraine in 2014.

Appeasement doesn’t work, the only thing Russia understands is force so the only way this works out well for the rest of world is if they suffer a huge defeat.

I don’t see this working unless the DMZ starts on Russias side of the pre 2014 border.

> Hugely embarrassing for the West and NATO, but would end the killing and devastation and allow us to concentrate on the real threat of climate change.

If you want to really end these threats then get Russia to leave Ukraine. But I have a feeling you don’t want that to happen.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#325

Post by _kbh_ »

theironhammer wrote: post #306
wkat4242 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. Sevastopol is super important to them. I hope they won't do anything drastic. It's the only warm water port Russia has on the black sea. And thus full year access to the mediterranean. I doubt they will give it up. Perhaps the rest of Crimea, I could imagine. But not the base.

Precisely. Ukraine taking back Crimea is pure fantasy. Russia would launch nukes rather than give it up.

> Precisely. Ukraine taking back Crimea is pure fantasy. Russia would launch nukes rather than give it up.

The idea that Russia will launch a single nuke is fantasy, they haven’t even tested one in over 80 years.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#326

Post by gomizari »

Ukrainians confessed multiple times they attacked it with HIMARSes:

1) https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-62533233

2) https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offe...

"Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages."

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#327

Post by _kbh_ »

gomizari wrote: post #326

Ukrainians confessed multiple times they attacked it with HIMARSes: 1) https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-62533233 2) https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offe... "Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be…

The Russians intentionally increased the water level of the dam to cause the most damage and then intentionally blew it up.

At least two Russian soldiers have said they would blow the damn / they blew the dam and have admitted as much in camera.

Russia was celebrating this before they realised it was a war crime then they went into their typical deny and deflect everything mode.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#328

Post by gomizari »

_kbh_ wrote: post #327
gomizari wrote: post #326

Ukrainians confessed multiple times they attacked it with HIMARSes: 1) https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-62533233 2) https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offe... "Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be…

The Russians intentionally increased the water level of the dam to cause the most damage and then intentionally blew it up. At least two Russian soldiers have said they would blow the damn / they blew the dam and have admitted as much in camera. Russia was celebrating this before they realised it was a war crime then they went into their typical deny and deflect everything mode.

It's probably another way around: Ukrainians intentionally increased the water level of the dam, since they control dams up the Dnieper river.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#329

Post by bjoli »

jononor wrote: post #212
bjoli wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone provided confirmed russian defensive positions along Dniepr. Unless the Russians moved out before the Ukrainians would have at least a reason to destroy the dam. They have, however, avoided civilian casualties, and looking at the map this would have been a deviation from that. It would fit the russian MO better

What are you saying could be a reason for Ukraine to do this? The flooding is probably not fast enough to trap/kill soldiers at those positions. And while those defensive positions will be "destroyed", they are replaced kilometers of marshlands, which is a superior defense, at least in the coming months. It can be held with much fewer people, shortening the effective length of the front, and freeing up soldiers to be…

I agree with you. This is probably a net positive for Russia which will have to defend a smaller stretch of land in the (probably) upcoming offensive.

Re: The Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam in Ukraine has been blown open

#330

Post by _kbh_ »

gomizari wrote: post #328
_kbh_ wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russians intentionally increased the water level of the dam to cause the most damage and then intentionally blew it up. At least two Russian soldiers have said they would blow the damn / they blew the dam and have admitted as much in camera. Russia was celebrating this before they realised it was a war crime then they went into their typical deny and deflect everything mode.

It's probably another way around: Ukrainians intentionally increased the water level of the dam, since they control dams up the Dnieper river.

Or you know since Ukraine doesn’t control the literal weather it would be hard to control the water level in a river.

Russia controlled whether or not they opened the spill gates they didn’t and it is obviously an intentional build up to do as much damage a possible.

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