Thanks!
> You will like some of the numbers on that site even less than the $19 million median cost for a trial.
> good luck discrediting the numbers.
I'm not sure why you would think I wouldn't like the numbers. I'm not pro-pharma, I'm just pro-informed reasoning.
That said, the article you reference is a bit more nuanced than your take. By the studies they're citing, while the trials for drugs that were approved have a median cost of $19 million, they are clear to outline that it does cost a lot to develop a new drug:
The $19 million median figure represents less than one percent of the average total cost of developing a new drug, which in recent years has been estimated at between $2 to $3 billion.
“The cost of generating this fundamental scientific information is surprisingly low given the total cost of drug development and the high price tags on many drugs,” says study senior author G. Caleb Alexander, MD, MS, associate professor of epidemiology and medicine at the Bloomberg School.
So, while studies may not be a large cost center for new drug development, they state that new drugs are very costly to develop. Or maybe studies are costly, and it's just that it takes very many of them until one shows success. Ten concurrent studies on ten variations of a drug to look for something promising would cost ten times the amount, and there's still no guarantee that any one study will end in a positive outcome.
If we're talking about the justification for patents for pharma companies, it seems like we should focus on the "total cost to develop a new drug is estimated at $2 to $3 billion" part and not the "$19 million median cost to run a study" part[1], which as I noted is lacked enough context to know exactly how much it relates to drug development cost.
That said, I'm not sure the total cost number referenced above is accurate (to my taste) either. How much of that is advertising? How much of that is kickbacks and trips and drug rep lunches and free samples to doctors? I'm not sure because I don't have access to the full paper, so I'm not sure what their methodology includes. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that a few "blockbuster" drugs had 80% of the cost in massive advertising and good-will pushes to seed the public consciousness about them so they could make more money in the end, so I'm really skeptical that $2 to $3 billion is an accurate indication of drug development cost just as much as I'm skeptical that a $19 million median trial cost equates directly to the drug development cost in a way that's obvious from that number alone.
1: Referenced and linked in JLU article, but here's the link as well: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01676...