Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

One overlooked aspect of all this is the evangelism around birth rate reduction that happened in the 20th century. My family actually came to the US because my dad got caught up with these folks, who worked hard to reduce the number of brown people being born around the world. In many ways the effect was positive—in my home country the birth rate dropped from 5.7 the year I was born to a sustainable 2.0 today. In my part of the world this was seen as a necessary step towards economic development and modernity.

What I realized over the years, though, was there was an ideological underpinning to it. Frankly it’s deeply disquieting—we had a party the other day with some of my dad’s family work friends, and someone asked whether we’d have a fourth child. One lady got very uncomfortable at the idea and muttered something about family planning (even though we’re rich and could easily afford another kid). It’s as if they are drawn to small families in and of themselves, not means as a means to practical ends.

This ideology has now been exported all over the world, even to societies that are historically natalist and family oriented. The birth rate in Japan and Korea of course has plummeted. But birth rates among Asian Americans is also abysmally low, despite their affluence.

That's not going to happen, though.

Population growth will continue whether you're having children or not. Western economies are Ponzi schemes and the ones needing your votes know it. You may not have any kids, but there are millions of Africans, Indians, and Chinese ready and willing to flood your country, and there are politicians only too eager to see them pouring across undefended borders. Some of these countries are seeing 9+ births per woman; there will be no shortage of new people to replace your non-existent grandchildren.

The solution would require some degree of ethnonationalism, else how do you argue against this policy? From a "we are all the same" viewpoint, it is unremarkable if Canada is 100% ethnically Indian and Chinese in 200 years; if Britain and Australia are African colonies; if America is... American. The very thought of racial discrimination in immigration, however, is totally unpalatable and unconscionable to most Westerners, and thus there is still no solution.

Your descendants' positions will be filled. There is no depopulation fantasy in the West's future. There can only be replacement.

Haha, if we are talking about the final outcome of zero population, of course the cities are empty. But until then, there is still some way to go. And I am pretty convinced people will flock together in cities instead of withering away lonely in the countryside.

But that hasn't borne out anywhere. Pretty much everywhere there's a population decline, there's also all sorts of other systemic issues.

It's actually pretty simple.

People are too busy to think about stuff they aren't directly interested in.

Pressure to have kids is reducing year by year (relatively, and it compounds quickly).

Since everybody is being trained to pursue personal excellence/satiety they're pushing back everything that isn't directly in their interests.

This includes devaluation of relationships (romantic, parental, and platonic). In exchange for the elevation of the individual.

And so, when the question of kids comes up, it's done with the same myopic lens as most other decisions. Which isn't to say, that its easy to just have children. But, people aren't exactly kicking their feet up. They're busy; very very busy.

This is actually probably no different than before, but there was momentum from traditions and peer pressure. But because the rails have diverged for so long, the curve is compounding.