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Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

economist.com

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Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#81

Post by mullingitover »

mlsu wrote: post #54
throwaway29291 wrote: post #5

Perhaps, instead, we can see this as a good thing and plan a graceful way back to a more sustainable population over the course of a century. Just yesterday yet another in a long line of reports talked about how humanity has not just bent but likely broken many of the Earth's ecological boundaries that humans and non-humans alike depend upon. We've known this for decades -- mountains upon mountains of studies in ecol…

I've seen this take before, especially around climate and the environment. It's correct that having 20,000 humans on Earth would be more (actually indefinitely) sustainable. These "degrowth" strategies mean tremendous suffering. People have to die to make degrowth possible. Those who stick around have to suffer of curable medical complications. They have to live hard lives without the comforts of modern life. Why do…

> People have to die to make degrowth possible.

I’ve read some statistics that say there’s more than an 80% chance that everyone alive right now will die at some point.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#82

Post by milsorgen »

refulgentis wrote: post #24
srl wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The American allergy to welfare and social safety has caused _global_ fertility to collapse?

its not global so much as prosperity-trap nations, there's enough of those these days (c.f. China) that it lets you say that generally globally, its true

There were predictions 10+ years ago that illustrated this _global_ trend. One stuck with me in particular, I might of found it through /. or Ars, not sure can't find the exact paper. But it predicted all but a handful of nations would be at or below replacement rates by 2050. It was spattering of African countries and Yemen. I think there was one another non African country but it escapes me. It stuck with me because I scoffed at the idea, yet every year and now seemingly every week we see more and more data that shows we are quickly lining up with that prediction. I don't think we'll be able to navigate this decline with any semblance of grace. Not with the state of our culture and politics. We'll see tremendous instability leading to further erosion of rights, we'll see wealth inequality skyrocket... I mean we are barely even talking about the birth rate issue let alone at a point where we could perhaps have strategies to confront this rapidly approaching future.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#83

Post by randallsquared »

hotpotamus wrote: post #46
xeromal wrote: post #38

Every comment I read about this is how low housing, low income, no time, etc is the cause of a global fertility drop, but I don't buy. Humans have been having boatloads of kids in horrible horrible times and they haven't been stopped until now.

Any theories as to the cause then?

As children, humans are receiving a torrent of new information all the time. For hundreds of thousands of years, the torrent slows as the human becomes an adolescent, puberty kicks off, and then they have children as the product of the latest new sensation. All that is upended, now. Not only are people continuing to have an available torrent of information into their twenties, but now it is possible to just never stop, so the transition to the next stage of life doesn't happen for more and more, and we just stay (functionally) children into the thirties, forties, or later, after which it's too late for more than half of us.

Not sure how seriously I take this. :)

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#84

Post by dbgev »

Consider Victorian era Britain, when the average person is much poorer, the air is heavily polluted with coal use, and the medical care is almost non-existant by modern standards. Fertility rate is about 5-6. Then it dropped to around 3 over 100 years and has been on a steady downward trajectory ever since.

This pattern is broadly replicated everywhere that industrializes.

Whatever the cause, it's not due to wealth per capita or personal health. It's probably cultural. Contraceptives / family planning definitely plays a big part too.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#85

Post by petre »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #18
megablast wrote: post #3

Good. Most of our modern problems are due to too many people. House prices, inflation, traffic, pollution, climate change, food scarcity, water, etc...

> House prices, inflation, traffic…food scarcity NIMBYism, combination of bad monetary policy and a supply shock, and bad urban planning. Tokyo has cheaper homes and less traffic than cities with a fraction of the population in America.

Tokyo also has earthquakes. Real estate is not an asset that appreciates in value in Japan, because it's eventually damaged or destroyed during an earthquake.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#86

Post by rigevunit »

The reason only partially is due to economic factors(gets rehashed alot) but one major thing everybody overlooks is the simple fact that males and females, in this era, are having difficulties pairing up! Platforms like Tinder are only making it harder for the majority* of people to build lasting bonds. I personally make good money and have a decent home but have never been able to find a mate in my entire 28 years of life.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#87

Post by chii »

aylmao wrote: post #35
pcurve wrote: post #10

Scary part is population collapse is a slow moving train wreck that is hard to avoid. The population projection for decades from now are set in stone. Yet we are powerless to anything about it.

IMO calling it "population collapse" and a "train wreck" is the wrong way to describe it. This isn't so much a collapse, it's a leveling-off. A train isn't supposed to wreck, but populations are supposed to reach a maxima. The fact historical short-sightedness meant we didn't plan for it properly is an issue. The problem here should be framed around our economic system though, not fertility rates.

> populations are supposed to reach a maxima.

This is an assumption.

In nature, a population reaches a maxima but it's a survivorship bias metric. Populations that _didn't_ level off struggled to find the now scarce food, and died off too fast to re-populate, or some other reason died off.

Humans are the only species so far to be able to exploit more resources as population grew, and have the technology to prevent such a collapse (by constantly expanding the resource acquisition game). In the future, i would expect space exploration to be space resource collection. Therefore, we will not reach maxima because there's no such thing. No natural force should be able to kill off humans or their expansion.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#88

Post by 29athrowaway »

gtaylor wrote: post #49
abdullahkhalids wrote: post #11

This is the angle here. Don't stop the AI bandwagon! > With that in mind, recent advances in ai could not have come at a better time. An über-productive AI-infused economy might find it easy to support a greater number of retired people. Eventually ai may be able to generate ideas by itself, reducing the need for human intelligence.

Seems possible or even plausible, but can't help but feel like this takes us one step closer to: > Welcome to Costco. I love you.

Tiktok is essentially "Ow, my balls"

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#89

Post by [deleted] »

SamoyedFurFluff wrote: post #4

The weirdest part is that I’m pretty sure women generally want a replacement rate (or more!) number of children when surveyed, but feel like they’re unable to support that number. Why can’t we address those? Edited to ask: some replies seemed skeptical so I went to find what I based this idea off of. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/american-fertility... https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-many-kids-do-women-want

[deleted]

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#90

Post by robbomacrae »

xeromal wrote: post #38

Every comment I read about this is how low housing, low income, no time, etc is the cause of a global fertility drop, but I don't buy. Humans have been having boatloads of kids in horrible horrible times and they haven't been stopped until now.

Counter point... or more of a theory.. everyone who wants to have a child wants to be as good as, or a better parent than their own, and want to provide for their children's childhood as good as, or better than their own. I don't have references to back this up but it seems to be the case with most parents or aspiring parents I talk to.

In the western world we compare ourselves to our parents who bought their 1st houses when they were in their twenties.. something we are less likely to achieve even with the same status job until much later on.

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