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Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

economist.com

61–70 of 273 posts

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#61
We better get energy technology sorted out this generation! Because from what I see it's going to become impossible soon - there won't be enough available productive people.

It's already hard to hire people to produce all the services people want. (You can pay more for one particular thing, but then other things don't have enough people - it's a zero sum game.)

With a declining birth rate it's going to become impossible.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#62
post #38

Every comment I read about this is how low housing, low income, no time, etc is the cause of a global fertility drop, but I don't buy. Humans have been having boatloads of kids in horrible horrible times and they haven't been stopped until now.

True, but we're seeing a measurable decline of standard of living in the west, which forces people to make sacrifices in their lifestyles. Millions of Americans are waking up to the fact that they're gonna be worse off in adulthood than their parents were and one of the easiest ways to try to maintain their standard of living is not to have children. It's not just about how many raised kids in squalor, it's about how many people are experiencing socioeconomic decline.

It's also purely anecdotal, but anti-natalist sentiment is very much on the rise in my community. I meet more and more people concerned that bringing a child into the world now means condemning them to suffer the worst consequences of climate change. No idea if this is represented at all on a global scale, but it's very present in my area.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#63
post #32

I've been wondering a lot about fertility lately. Almost every married woman that I know of my age group is seemingly unable to have children, despite, in most cases, wanting to. This is often accompanied by PCOS, thyroid problems, or other strange but undiagnosed illnesses. The one exception to this seems to be those of Italian American vintage. Having grown up in Rhode Island I know quite a lot of Italian Americans…

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Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#64
post #32

I've been wondering a lot about fertility lately. Almost every married woman that I know of my age group is seemingly unable to have children, despite, in most cases, wanting to. This is often accompanied by PCOS, thyroid problems, or other strange but undiagnosed illnesses. The one exception to this seems to be those of Italian American vintage. Having grown up in Rhode Island I know quite a lot of Italian Americans…

How old is your age group? I noticed the same thing among my friends, but then also noticed they all didn't start having kids until mid-30s. It turns out career-oriented women are choosing to start having kids much later in their lives than in previous decades, which is definitely a compounding factor.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#65

Perhaps, instead, we can see this as a good thing and plan a graceful way back to a more sustainable population over the course of a century. Just yesterday yet another in a long line of reports talked about how humanity has not just bent but likely broken many of the Earth's ecological boundaries that humans and non-humans alike depend upon. We've known this for decades -- mountains upon mountains of studies in ecol…

Unfortunately, the likely reality is that the ones who can afford to continue reproducing will also continue to consume an unfair amount of resources.

I think the answer is the opposite. Consumption of resources is proportional to standard of living: it takes resources to make the most modern lifestyle available. The demographic collapse, however, is evident in highly industrialized societies like Korea, while backwards regions with a low standard of living still have high birthrates. Subsaharan Africa, for example, consumes less than Korea per capita but has a higher birthrate. It seems more likely that higher rates of resource consumption are correlated with lower birthrates.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#66
post #38

Every comment I read about this is how low housing, low income, no time, etc is the cause of a global fertility drop, but I don't buy. Humans have been having boatloads of kids in horrible horrible times and they haven't been stopped until now.

Any theories as to the cause then?

Freedom from being forced to reproduce in recent/modern times for women, and the fact that a lot of women now have a lot of choices (such as going career focused).

Not to mention the fact that a lot of younger people would prefer to have financial security "setup" first, before embarking on the journey of child raising (but unfortunately, this takes a lot of time, and fraught with uncertainty).

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#67
post #38

Every comment I read about this is how low housing, low income, no time, etc is the cause of a global fertility drop, but I don't buy. Humans have been having boatloads of kids in horrible horrible times and they haven't been stopped until now.

Thing is, the marginal cost of kids has shot through the roof. It’s no longer a sensible thing to do - in the horrible times you mention, children were investments - you spend ~ 10years raising them, and after that they worked for you, almost free labor. And a lot more things required labor to function.

Now, kids are almost all cost, as the government / society itself captures their economic output, and doesn’t give enough back to the family that did the work to raise them.

So now you have kids because you want to, and its no longer rational act, more emotional one.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#68
post #38

Every comment I read about this is how low housing, low income, no time, etc is the cause of a global fertility drop, but I don't buy. Humans have been having boatloads of kids in horrible horrible times and they haven't been stopped until now.

Any theories as to the cause then?

It's entirely because people now have a choice of whether or not to have kids and most people are choosing not to for completely valid reasons.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#69
post #38

Every comment I read about this is how low housing, low income, no time, etc is the cause of a global fertility drop, but I don't buy. Humans have been having boatloads of kids in horrible horrible times and they haven't been stopped until now.

Yeah most people saying they can't afford to have children probably are in the richest 10% of the world's population. They can absolutely afford a child.

The cost they don't want to pay isn't monetary, it's time/commitment. And to avoid the time/commitment, you need lots and lots of money, and even then you still lose control of your life; suddenly there's other forces that require you to do things you don't want to do.
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