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Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

economist.com

31–40 of 273 posts

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#31

The weirdest part is that I’m pretty sure women generally want a replacement rate (or more!) number of children when surveyed, but feel like they’re unable to support that number. Why can’t we address those? Edited to ask: some replies seemed skeptical so I went to find what I based this idea off of. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/american-fertility... https://ifstudies.org/blog/how-many-kids-do-women-want

Elon is on it. Saving the world again.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#32
I've been wondering a lot about fertility lately. Almost every married woman that I know of my age group is seemingly unable to have children, despite, in most cases, wanting to. This is often accompanied by PCOS, thyroid problems, or other strange but undiagnosed illnesses. The one exception to this seems to be those of Italian American vintage. Having grown up in Rhode Island I know quite a lot of Italian Americans, and while they all have those strange illnesses, they do seem to be able to have kids almost universally.

Something really strange is going on, and it's awful to watch. In some instances the women have actually considered self harm because of their desire and inability to have children, even after tens of thousands spent on IUI and IVF. This can't be accidental, but I have no idea what could be causing it and how anyone would go about proving the connection. I hear all sorts of wild theories such as birth-control in the water, or plastics imitating estrogens, or pesticides interrupting hormone pathways, but they're all correlative when I've investigated. Never really seen it any truly compelling evidence. In fact, I've never even seen real evidence to prove that this is a phenomenon that's actively occurring, but man, it feels like nearly every fertile-age woman I know is having problems, and the few that aren't probably just aren't talking about it.

From a personal and selfish standpoint, I now have two kids and it sucks not having any friends that have kids.

I hope it gets figured out.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#33

Perhaps, instead, we can see this as a good thing and plan a graceful way back to a more sustainable population over the course of a century. Just yesterday yet another in a long line of reports talked about how humanity has not just bent but likely broken many of the Earth's ecological boundaries that humans and non-humans alike depend upon. We've known this for decades -- mountains upon mountains of studies in ecol…

Unfortunately, the likely reality is that the ones who can afford to continue reproducing will also continue to consume an unfair amount of resources.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#34
post #29

As the article points out, having a choice, and not being pressured by society into having kids one doesn't want, certainly is a good thing. On the other hand, as the article notes: > [...] cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages [...] the financial aspect is a huge blocker for those who want to have children. We live in a world where the majority of young p…

At least in my case, I moved to a city for more infrastructure, public transport and my job. I had absolutely no plans to raise kids there. In fact, most people I know move out of the city center to the suburbs once they have kids. I dont follow your analysis why less childbirth would automatically lead to deserted cities.

A shrinking population does eventually have to lead to smaller (or fewer) cities.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#35
post #10

Scary part is population collapse is a slow moving train wreck that is hard to avoid. The population projection for decades from now are set in stone. Yet we are powerless to anything about it.

IMO calling it "population collapse" and a "train wreck" is the wrong way to describe it. This isn't so much a collapse, it's a leveling-off. A train isn't supposed to wreck, but populations are supposed to reach a maxima.

The fact historical short-sightedness meant we didn't plan for it properly is an issue. The problem here should be framed around our economic system though, not fertility rates.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#36
post #32

I've been wondering a lot about fertility lately. Almost every married woman that I know of my age group is seemingly unable to have children, despite, in most cases, wanting to. This is often accompanied by PCOS, thyroid problems, or other strange but undiagnosed illnesses. The one exception to this seems to be those of Italian American vintage. Having grown up in Rhode Island I know quite a lot of Italian Americans…

Just a guess but it's gonna be plastic

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#37

Good. Most of our modern problems are due to too many people. House prices, inflation, traffic, pollution, climate change, food scarcity, water, etc...

Exactly. One billion people is far more sustainable than 10.

Problem is people with heavy carbon footprint are not the people in high population regions. Therefore depopulation might not help the environment all that much.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#39

As the article points out, having a choice, and not being pressured by society into having kids one doesn't want, certainly is a good thing. On the other hand, as the article notes: > [...] cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages [...] the financial aspect is a huge blocker for those who want to have children. We live in a world where the majority of young p…

> will eventually drain cities of young people and those cities will be left behind

Where are they going to move to? Or are you saying that there simply won't be any young people anywhere, because they were never born?

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#40
post #36
post #32

I've been wondering a lot about fertility lately. Almost every married woman that I know of my age group is seemingly unable to have children, despite, in most cases, wanting to. This is often accompanied by PCOS, thyroid problems, or other strange but undiagnosed illnesses. The one exception to this seems to be those of Italian American vintage. Having grown up in Rhode Island I know quite a lot of Italian Americans…

Just a guess but it's gonna be plastic

"There's a great future in plastics. Think about it. Will you think about it?"
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