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Automate the CEOs

hamiltonnolan.com

131–140 of 156 posts

Re: Automate the CEOs

#131

or perhaps people can deal with the true problem: people. who makes ceo-bot? people. not ceo people, but that paints ceos too harshly, to act like only they can do wrong. (they just do it with such gusto.) people are the problem. society. culture. not the existence, the current implementation. maybe in a few years.

Where do we submit change requests for People 2.0? I found a bug where people crash after roughly 60-80 years and can't be rebooted, they're just plain bricked.

the operating environment is out of spec. that is an artificial product lifespan. unplanned obsolescence. cheaper to plan for replacements, until it isn’t.

bug reports can be submitted to the internet. no guarantees of effort are tied to such a report.

most importantly, outsourcing the issue is somewhat the issue itself.

Re: Automate the CEOs

#132

Close. Automate middle management. All the things mentioned in the article really are prime candidates for automation. But that's management, not leadership. Management is primed to be automated. See Marshall Brain's book "Manna" for a great take on what's possible here. Leadership is not. LLMs are great at doing the right things when there's a general consensus on what the right things are. Best practices, etc. But…

50% of what middle management is what secretaries used to do. If I ever run my own company I will hire a team of secretaries to work with my developers and our productivity will shoot through the roof. No everyone is organized, good at scheduling, following up on things, focusing at work, interpersonal discussions, sending memos, navigating bureaucracy, etc. A great secretary allows you to focus on getting developmen…

A ton of that can be automated through your delivery system as well. Managers need to become flow engineers and get away from managing people.

Re: Automate the CEOs

#133
Funny thing being in a big company doing a job that's mostly pointless.

I'm paid well. Do everything I'm told. Top performer. I'm happy though as I'm providing for the family. My accomplishments amount to one day of effort, output, results every month.

This has been happening for years.

I am curious how many of me exist. The Twitter firing suggests that's it's over 50% so it's that's true, what exactly are managers doing?

Most tell me they're in meetings, looking over spreadsheets and meeting with staff. I run my house and meet with my spouse for about twenty minutes a quarter over financials. Everything is automated. Everything is scheduled. We are adults. Labor is divided, assigned, adjusted as we age.

Large companies get in the position of not reducing head count because, yes, they're people with lives and relationships matter.

Solution? I'm thinking more of a State style employment but limited. If hired, you're job is secure for five years. Automate you job entirely? Good on you! Do not apply...... TAKE a new job in the company. You're slow to onboard? Fine. Dead weight? Not renewed.

Take the fear of insecurity off the table. People will behave according to their character.

Re: Automate the CEOs

#134
post #84
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chess also has a rigid, well-defined set of rules. Business does not. Being a CEO requires combining a lot of (sometimes nebulous) mental models, each with a degree of uncertainty, to some overall business strategy. I think it was Sam Harris who pointed out this is why there are child prodigies in subjects like math and chess, but none in something like political science.

> mental models, each with a degree of uncertainty, to some overall business strategy That actually sounds a lot like model based reinforcement learning. AlphaGo still had an explicit model of a perfect information game, but newer algorithms are capable of learning the rules of games like Minecraft with very little prior information. The problem is that the real world is still much more complicated and hard to access…

There's also some question about the fragility of some of these models, compared to humans [1]. I think there have been some other examples where changing one rule makes their aptitude crash. The implication being they are still hard-rule based, but scale well. But that scale advantage erodes quickly with a rule change because of the lack of contextual understanding.

[1] https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/11/new-g...

Re: Automate the CEOs

#135
post #98

> Shareholders are spending these extravagant sums for tasks that can now be done just as well by an AI program trained on 100 years of corporate reports and Wall Street Journal texts. Citation needed, etc. I think this is just meant to be funny but if anyone wants it to be more than that I’d need to see some actual proof.

It's good to be skeptical of this kind of claim of course, but part of the point of the article in my view is that the narrative is pretty credulous when you say this about writers or programmers or artists -- i.e. people who do not control capital.

And yet there's plenty of evidence that certain copywriting jobs can be replaced by GPT right now. I haven't seen any evidence that GPT is competent enough to replace a CEO position, nor am I sure who would be writing the prompts in that case and how that position would be any different than a CEO.

(I'd be cool with CEOs making less than 400x their workers though)

Re: Automate the CEOs

#136
post #30

This is like designing just the right shape of bomb to bring peace to the middle east. Neoliberal solutions dont work on the captains of the neoliberal order. If you want to bring CEOs to heel the best way to to organize, unionize and strike (if youre not a dev) or unionize and/or covertly work to rule (if you are).

Why would only software developers work-to-rule? This would be called simple sabotage. What possible gain could be derived from that? Why can't engineers unionize?

>Why would only software developers work-to-rule? This would be called simple sabotage.

Probably they won't - as a profession it completely lacks class consciousness, as underscored so neatly by this comment of yours.

The resultant talent oversupply caused by people chasing middle class wages via bootcamps and an overwhelming lack of solidarity will likely end up with the profession being paid somewhere between "starving physics PhD" and "plumber" for most roles.

Striking will probably be tried a few times but, judging by how many software systems ive seen tick over for months with 0 developers, it's likely to fall flat on its face.

Re: Automate the CEOs

#137
post #30

This is like designing just the right shape of bomb to bring peace to the middle east. Neoliberal solutions dont work on the captains of the neoliberal order. If you want to bring CEOs to heel the best way to to organize, unionize and strike (if youre not a dev) or unionize and/or covertly work to rule (if you are).

> unionize and strike (if youre not a dev) Why is unionizing and striking not ok for devs? That seems a little cowardly

I wasn't passing moral judgment. Striking simply wouldnt work for devs due to the nature of the job.

Re: Automate the CEOs

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it the endgame of X if X is losing the fight? This has been the endgame of marketing.

As a marketer, I'm curious about what you mean by this. What are you saying is marketing's endgame? (I'm not sure if I'll agree or disagree yet.)

You probably won't agree, because it's not a very charitable thing to say about marketers, sorry.

My position is that democracy works well when the will of the people gets translated into action in a way that still resembles what those people organically need.

Marketing is the process of tampering with that translation such that what actually happens benefits the marketers' customers, typically at the expense of the people.

Presumably there are practices and technologies that we could invest in which preserve this translation, but we haven't been investing in those. Instead we've been investing in marketing. We're building a world where you can spend money to shape public opinion, and that's a world that's toxic to democracy.

Perhaps there was a time when information about available goods and services was hard to come by. Maybe you legitimately needed somebody to get the word out. But I don't think we live in that world anymore.

In case you're not familliar with "the shoe event horizon":

> As a society sinks into depression, the people of the society need to cheer themselves up by buying themselves gifts, often shoes. It is also linked to the fact that when you are depressed you look down at your shoes and decide they aren't good enough quality so buy more expensive replacements. As more money is spent on shoes, more shoe shops are built, and the quality of the shoes begins to diminish as the demand for different types of shoes increases. This makes people buy more shoes.

> The above turns into a vicious cycle, causing other industries to decline.

> Eventually the titular Shoe Event Horizon is reached, where the only type of store economically viable to build is a shoe shop. At this point, society ceases to function, and the economy collapses, sending a world spiralling into ruin. In the case of Brontitall and Frogstar World B, the population forsook shoes and evolved into birds.

That's what is happening to us, except instead of shoes, it's ads. We're diminishing the legitimacy of making a good product or being a good leader, because an easier way to win is just pay to shape public opinion.

What you win isn't as good as it would have been if you competed on merit, but that doesn't matter because competing on merit is hard and your opposition isn't doing it.

So I'm saying that it's Marketing vs Democracy and Marketing is winning. Thus we're living in Marketing's endgame and not Democracy's endgame.

Re: Automate the CEOs

#139
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

50% of what middle management is what secretaries used to do. If I ever run my own company I will hire a team of secretaries to work with my developers and our productivity will shoot through the roof. No everyone is organized, good at scheduling, following up on things, focusing at work, interpersonal discussions, sending memos, navigating bureaucracy, etc. A great secretary allows you to focus on getting developmen…

So much this. And also this applies to many roles. I heard similar from people who ran buying and merchandising teams at my old company: “Why are they paying me to file my expense report? An assistant could do this and then I could spend an additional hour doing my job!!” I hadn’t ever really thought about this until then. It seems like most companies just think “having an assistant or secretary is extravagance” so o…

I've had this conversation with my various managers many times: "Oooookaaaay, if you really want to pay me my salary to spend my time filling out expense reports, copying status updates from one document to another, scheduling meetings for people, and all these other administrative tasks, then that's what I'll do. But, wow, what a waste."

Re: Automate the CEOs

#140

Close. Automate middle management. All the things mentioned in the article really are prime candidates for automation. But that's management, not leadership. Management is primed to be automated. See Marshall Brain's book "Manna" for a great take on what's possible here. Leadership is not. LLMs are great at doing the right things when there's a general consensus on what the right things are. Best practices, etc. But…

To me, this sounds a lot like hero worship.

As an engineer for 40 years, I don't need to be led. I know what needs to be done.

I would say "leadship" is a highly emotional (on both sides) behaviour that would be perfectly fit by a solution based on historical statistical analysis.

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