San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic? • Hacker News Board

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#91

Post by paulcole » Wed, May 31, 2023, 5:56 PM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #46

sylens wrote: post #29

You're seeing this everywhere. Chicago, Philadelphia, and so on - although the problem may be worse in San Francisco. Cities are struggling in the post-pandemic era as the rising cost of living due to inflation in food and other essentials has driven more criminal activity, mostly around theft. This is happening at the same time where many cities are also trying more progressive, reform-based approaches to policing a…

A lot of city residents need to come to terms with the fact that some of these progressive criminal justice reforms may need to be adjusted a bit, given that we now have years of evidence of their effects. And/or: We need to make affordable housing available, make a car-optional lifestyle more viable, etc. "The beatings shall continue until morale improves" isn't an effective approach to anything, especially since if…

> make a car-optional lifestyle more viable

You are more optimistic than I am. I’m 40, have never driven a car, and grew up in a very rural part of the country, went to college in the suburbs, and now live in a pretty urban area.

A lot of people say they want a car-optional lifestyle, but most really really don’t. If you make a car-optional lifestyle more viable, the vast majority of people will make up a new excuse for why it won’t for them. “I have to carry… The kids need to… My job is… It takes too long…”

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#92

Post by whiddershins » Wed, May 31, 2023, 5:57 PM UTC

sylens wrote: post #29

You're seeing this everywhere. Chicago, Philadelphia, and so on - although the problem may be worse in San Francisco. Cities are struggling in the post-pandemic era as the rising cost of living due to inflation in food and other essentials has driven more criminal activity, mostly around theft. This is happening at the same time where many cities are also trying more progressive, reform-based approaches to policing a…

There is no evidence that economic conditions are driving criminal activity.

It may be the case. But it could have other casual factors such as the change in policing or any of a number of other factors.

Poverty and violent/property crime do correlate. But the arrow of causation between them, or whether they can be both products of some other factor, is not clear and heavily debated.

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#93

Post by localplume » Wed, May 31, 2023, 5:57 PM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #46

sylens wrote: post #29

You're seeing this everywhere. Chicago, Philadelphia, and so on - although the problem may be worse in San Francisco. Cities are struggling in the post-pandemic era as the rising cost of living due to inflation in food and other essentials has driven more criminal activity, mostly around theft. This is happening at the same time where many cities are also trying more progressive, reform-based approaches to policing a…

A lot of city residents need to come to terms with the fact that some of these progressive criminal justice reforms may need to be adjusted a bit, given that we now have years of evidence of their effects. And/or: We need to make affordable housing available, make a car-optional lifestyle more viable, etc. "The beatings shall continue until morale improves" isn't an effective approach to anything, especially since if…

[dead]

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#94

Post by paulpauper » Wed, May 31, 2023, 5:58 PM UTC

i was hoping there would be at least some stats/data in the article. Crime has been a problem in Sf. and other big cities for a long time. Nope,..no stats...just a long personal anecdote. But other data such as by Pinker shows crime has been in decline for decades after peaking in 1990. this includes all types of crime in many metro areas.

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#95

Post by dogleash » Wed, May 31, 2023, 5:58 PM UTC

wallwariyan wrote: post #30

this is an overreaction from suburban midwestern types. the people that have lived in the bay area and been priced out of sf will keep the region going. the rest will either fit in or move out of the area after publishing an out of touch medium blog post about their experiences

> Anyone who disagrees with me is from the flyovers

Well, at least the culture of San Francisco is still alive.

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#96

Post by HPsquared » Wed, May 31, 2023, 5:58 PM UTC

munificent wrote: post #68

sylens wrote: post #29

You're seeing this everywhere. Chicago, Philadelphia, and so on - although the problem may be worse in San Francisco. Cities are struggling in the post-pandemic era as the rising cost of living due to inflation in food and other essentials has driven more criminal activity, mostly around theft. This is happening at the same time where many cities are also trying more progressive, reform-based approaches to policing a…

> A lot of city residents need to come to terms with the fact that some of these progressive criminal justice reforms may need to be adjusted a bit, given that we now have years of evidence of their effects. Or we need progressive economic reforms to go with them. You can avoid property crime two ways: 1. Massive police power that brutally punishes anyone who does it so that the incentives are always against it. 2. C…

A bit of #1 helps with #2. You just need enough to nudge the cost/ benefit so crime isn't perceived to pay (or if it does pay, that it isn't perceived to be worth the risk).

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#97

Post by Manuel_D » Wed, May 31, 2023, 5:58 PM UTC

AlbertCory wrote: post #53

uoaei wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, welcome to the conversation, I can tell this is the first time you've engaged with this topic, so I'd love to introduce you to the economic dynamics at play. When property taxes don't rise, people are disincentivized from selling their home because if they buy a new home they must pay property taxes at the new rate, not the grandfathered one. This creates a bottlenecked supply of housing because no one sells. Gro…

Do a little research. If you move in CA and you're over 55, you can now keep your property tax bill. Previously it was only certain counties that honored that; now it's all of them. https://www.financialplannerla.com/transfer-california-prope... > All because they happened to have bought a home before this law passed. Again, do some research. Prop 13 passed in 1978, 45 years ago. The number of current homeowners who…

> Do a little research. If you move in CA and you're over 55, you can now keep your property tax bill. Previously it was only certain counties that honored that; now it's all of them.

This is incorrect, there are still county restrictions. Counties must opt-in to the tax transfers, and the purchased home must be of equal or lesser value. 10 of California's 58 counties permit it, most do not because they don't want to miss on tax revenue.

> Again, do some research. Prop 13 passed in 1978, 45 years ago. The number of current homeowners who bought before then is vanishingly small. House prices were escalating before 13 passed, and the jumps in property taxes were in fact a prime reason why it passed.

This is not relevant at all. The point is that people's effective property tax goes down over time, regardless of whether they bought before or after prop 13 was passed. Someone who bought a house in 1990 is probably paying less than a third of the normal property tax.

> there are all kinds of reasons why there's too little building. Grandfathered house values are only one of them. Regulations and high costs are much more important.

Great, we should eliminate restrictive regulations and Prop 13!

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#98

Post by [deleted] » Wed, May 31, 2023, 5:58 PM UTC

bagels wrote: post #77

ajkjk wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You're seeing this everywhere. Chicago, Philadelphia, and so on - although the problem may be worse in San Francisco I don't think this is true at all? Where are you getting this statistic? San Francisco (and a few other west coast cities) are the only ones in the country I've been to that feel _dramatically_ worse with each passing year.

Feelings are influenced by political media coverage. Let's see data. Maybe it's true, but I'm not advocating for policy change based on how one person feels.

[deleted]

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#99

Post by woodruffw » Wed, May 31, 2023, 5:59 PM UTC

sylens wrote: post #29

You're seeing this everywhere. Chicago, Philadelphia, and so on - although the problem may be worse in San Francisco. Cities are struggling in the post-pandemic era as the rising cost of living due to inflation in food and other essentials has driven more criminal activity, mostly around theft. This is happening at the same time where many cities are also trying more progressive, reform-based approaches to policing a…

> This is happening at the same time where many cities are also trying more progressive, reform-based approaches to policing and charging criminals.

In case it needs to be said: the alternative to releasing people before their trial is indefinite detention (indefinite because the courts cannot guarantee that the trial begins immediately after arrest). A free society doesn't lock people up indefinitely without trial, even if all evidence points to them being a petty thief.

To a first approximation, people (especially indigent people) don't steal things for "kicks." Eliminate the cause of the stealing, and you eliminate the crime. Fail to eliminate the cause, and you the worst of both worlds: crime and indefinite detention.

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#100

Post by georgeecollins » Wed, May 31, 2023, 5:59 PM UTC

I was born in San Francisco. There are some parts of the city-- downtown parts in particular-- that have demonstrably worse homeless problems then they used to for reasons people will disagree about. However, in the eighties the city was also unsafe in many places that are completely gentrified now. There are parts of the city where you would get robbed walking though that are now completely nice and safe, or you would maybe see a mentally ill homeless person as opposed to a crime inclined teen, perhaps armed. The idea that there was a time when the town did not have crime problems seems strange to me.