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EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

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Re: EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

#91

Post by lostlogin »

anovikov wrote: post #44
hunglee2 wrote: post #9

EU continues to important Russian oil, it has just been refined and rebadged by India, Saudi Arabia, China and others, so that a statement like this could be made. EU is basically paying a premium in order to stake a claim to moral high ground they don't hold

Well, EU was never dependent on Russian oil. Oil is a commodity. A large international market for it exists and it is cheap to transport, and sufficient import throughput was always possible. So there was no dependence: at no point Putin could say, "do X or else we will cut your oil supply" - that won't have any effect, they'd just buy oil elsewhere (heating market up considerably yes, but entire world market in whic…

> It took almost a year for market to readjust but now the prices are same as they used to be before all these events.

And that’s perfect, for the EU. Russia won’t be enjoying that, which was the entire point.

I hadn’t realised gas prices had dropped so much.

Re: EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

#92

Post by yunohn »

kstenerud wrote: post #70

There seems to be a lot of confusion about what's going on with price caps and what "independence" means, so here's an explanation: The price cap on Russian gas effectively sets a maximum price that those enforcing the cap will pay. This means that Russia can't sell at full price because even those not enforcing the cap aren't willing to pay full price for it (why should they, when Russia's choices of customers are s…

Your explanation of the situation sounds like the Byzantine corporate structures that multinationals use to evade taxes. I assume the goal is the same - to hoodwink and exploit the populace.

Morally speaking, I’d expect to have zero imports of Russian fuel to declare “independence”.

Re: EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

#93

Post by Animatronio »

lostlogin wrote: post #89
atlantic wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any data on their actual profit margins, or are you speculating?

Elsewhere here this link was given as proof that Russia was back where it started and hadn’t suffered loss of oil revenue. It shows export volumes pretty steady, but revenue loss of 43%. That would seem likely to have hit profits pretty hard. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports...

Some would disagree with this take:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/24/ukraine-the-wests-oil-war-ag...

Analysis published Wednesday by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, an independent Finnish think tank, found that Russia’s revenues from oil exports have recovered from levels reached in January and February.

The findings show that Moscow has been able to successfully claw back earnings from fossil fuel exports in recent weeks despite the imposition of import bans from the European Union and a broader G7 oil price cap late last year.

Energy analysts at CREA suggested the failure from the so-called Price Cap Coalition to revise price levels and enforce the policy had resulted in the measures “losing traction, integrity and credibility.”

Re: EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

#94

Post by The_Colonel »

yogthos wrote: post #52
belltaco wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but the Russians are too stupid to understand it Who said they don't understand it? What can they do about it? Nothing.

What they can and have done about it is to redirect their trade towards non western countries that constitute the majority of the world. Plenty of recent articles clearly show that the sanctions have been an utter failure in practice. The only entity that's being severely hurt here is Europe. https://archive.is/2023.02.23-211202/https://www.nytimes.com... https://archive.ph/Niqwh https://nationalinterest.org/feature/…

It's kind of funny to hear Russians argue how sanctions utterly failed, they are hurting the West, do not hurt Russia, on the opposite only strengthen it ...

There's a saying "never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake", yet it seems Russians do exactly that again and again?

Re: EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

#95

Post by wilburTheDog »

vegardx wrote: post #73
wilburTheDog wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not smarter. Not even trying to hide it. And Russia is selling oil at a price they set. It's just the EU that's paying more to pretend they aren't doing business with Russia. "India’s diesel exports tripled to ~1,600,000 barrels per day in March 2023, compared to a year ago, making diesel one of the largest components of India-EU trade." https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/India-Leads-In-Russian...

India imports crude oil from Russia and refines it into products that Europe wants, like diesel as you mentioned. You forgot to mention that Europe imported almost all diesel from Russia.

As of January this year Russia provided about 1/4 of the diesel imports for Europe. That's down from pre-war levels.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight...

"Although still high, Europe's dependence on Russian diesel has almost halved from pre-war levels when the region sourced 46% of its diesel imports from Russia, the data showed."

Re: EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

#96

Post by radiator »

kstenerud wrote: post #70

There seems to be a lot of confusion about what's going on with price caps and what "independence" means, so here's an explanation: The price cap on Russian gas effectively sets a maximum price that those enforcing the cap will pay. This means that Russia can't sell at full price because even those not enforcing the cap aren't willing to pay full price for it (why should they, when Russia's choices of customers are s…

In your rather long post, you did not mention the fact that Russia refuses to sell oil to any country which applies the price cap. I wonder, is this really not relevant for your analysis?

Re: EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

#97

Post by unmole »

wiseowise wrote: post #71
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, because they shelled the minority who wanted independence since 2014. Nato bombed yugoslavia for months for the same thing, and they still act as a defensive organization.

> Yes, because they shelled the minority who wanted independence since 2014. Funny way to spell “fought separatist forces supported by Russia”.

That's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it? I fight separatist forces. You violently suppress minorities. He has been charged with war crimes under the Rome Statute.

Re: EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

#98

Post by aziaziazi »

The_Colonel wrote: post #85
aziaziazi wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there's absolutely zero evidence of that OP linked a Reuters post citing OSCE numbers. This organisation includes most European countries, US and Russia among others. If we can’t listen to est neither to west, who should we listen ? You, my Colonel ?

Well, have you read the article? It just states that the intensity of shelling intensified, which is not very surprising 5 days before the invasion? The article did not mention who intensified the shelling in the first place, but states that the only civilian casualty happened on the Kyiv government controlled territory. Please explain to me, how is this proof that Ukraine wanted to invade.

Shelling 5 days before an invasion reads to me: “shelling is the (or a) cause of the invasion”, not “invasion is the cause of the precedent shelling”. Like “causality happens before consequence”.

However I’m far from being familiar with politico-military strategies and am here to learn. Please accept my excuse for the cynical tone of my precedent message.

Re: EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

#99

Post by The_Colonel »

aziaziazi wrote: post #98
The_Colonel wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, have you read the article? It just states that the intensity of shelling intensified, which is not very surprising 5 days before the invasion? The article did not mention who intensified the shelling in the first place, but states that the only civilian casualty happened on the Kyiv government controlled territory. Please explain to me, how is this proof that Ukraine wanted to invade.

Shelling 5 days before an invasion reads to me: “shelling is the (or a ) cause of the invasion”, not “invasion is the cause of the precedent shelling”. Like “causality happens before consequence”. However I’m far from being familiar with politico-military strategies and am here to learn. Please accept my excuse for the cynical tone of my precedent message.

Then how is it possible that Russians started the build up of forces around Ukrainian borders months before this increased rate of shelling?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russia-ukra...

Re: EU achieved independence from Russian fossil fuels

#100

Post by lisasays »

yogthos wrote: post #78
DaedPsyker wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they aren't selling at their original price, Russia is now selling to those partners at a reduced price. At the very least it reduces the amount of funds Russia has at its disposal for the war.

The discounts Russia offers to its partners are minimal, and as CNN reports, Russia's revenues are back to pre-war levels. So, not sure what you're going on about there. https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea...

That's not what the article says. In fact, in terms or revenue levels that's the opposite of what it says.
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