81–90 of 124 posts
Of course had the takeover gone ahead then its likely that Nvidia would be even more valuable - unless you take the view that Arm would have been a distraction for Nvidia.
Speaking of trillion dollar companies, how is Apple the most valuable one? Their devices are dumb as bricks. Apple is do bad at AI that they can't even get autocorrect right on the iPhone. They are completely out of their element in the age of LLM's. Microsoft's business was bulletproof before investing in OpenAI but now it should be more valuable than Apple.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are there betting odds anywhere for regime change/invasion of Taiwan? I would put it as ~1% per year right now, but perhaps other investors see it differently.
If you believe that Taiwan has a 1% chance of being invaded per year and that this event would remove your ownership then the long term value of purchasing this stock is negative
Production capacity losses might be realistic scenario and sales to west going down.
the fact that NVDA has a larger market cap than basically all other chip manufacturers combined is hilarious. big TSLA energy here
IMO, NVDA is in a similar position to VMware among practitioners--folks hate their pricing and will gladly jump ship to whatever is cheaper with feature parity. They've burned their brand by charging so much and doing licensing fuckery to squeeze as much as possible. Folks are only staying because CUDA has no equivalent (for now).
ah yes, consistent long-term delivery of realized customer value, the shakiest of moats
Wow, 213x P/E ratio. To put this into context with other large tech companies: P/E MARKET CAP Salesforce 1,036x $0.2T AMD 519x $0.2T NVIDIA 213x $1.0T Amazon 293x $1.25T Microsoft 35x $2.4T Meta/FB 33x $0.7T Apple 30x $2.7T Google 27x $1.5T TSMC 16x $0.4T Samsung 10x $0.3T EDIT: "P/E" ratio is the Market Cap "Price" / Earnings the company generates. E.g. Samsung is generating $30B in earnings (not revenue, earnings),…
Price to sales is a more telling comparison here. P/E can appear arbitrarily high/low depending on what the company is optimizing for. A realistic "terminal margin" is pretty similar between like-kind businesses, so you can somewhat assume what it will be in the long run and apply that to projected revenues. Price to Sales: (TTM revenues) NVDA: 37x AMD: 8x TSLA: 8x TSM: 7x AAPL: 7x GOOG: 6x QCOM: 3x
Speaking of trillion dollar companies, how is Apple the most valuable one? Their devices are dumb as bricks. Apple is do bad at AI that they can't even get autocorrect right on the iPhone. They are completely out of their element in the age of LLM's. Microsoft's business was bulletproof before investing in OpenAI but now it should be more valuable than Apple.
Why does Apple have to be good at AI? Why do all of these big tech companies have to have a play for everything?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Price to sales is a more telling comparison here. P/E can appear arbitrarily high/low depending on what the company is optimizing for. A realistic "terminal margin" is pretty similar between like-kind businesses, so you can somewhat assume what it will be in the long run and apply that to projected revenues. Price to Sales: (TTM revenues) NVDA: 37x AMD: 8x TSLA: 8x TSM: 7x AAPL: 7x GOOG: 6x QCOM: 3x
Price to FCF (Free cash flow) is even better.
When a tech employee receives shares, it dilutes other shareholders. This is not "free" money to be ignored just because it doesn't take cash to pay it
See one other small cap company benefiting out of this nvda upside because of AI and GPUs sale. SuperMicro(SMCI) is up 10x is last 2 years with most growth recently.
Why? Do they manufacture their GPUs?
Comparison chart with NVDA in red, TSMC in blue, diversified semiconductor industry ETF in green, AMD in orange: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/NVDA,TSM,SMH,AMD
Even for people within the company, the pie is not getting any bigger so the only game in town is to become the best skilled politician to try and increase one's own slice.