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North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

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Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#31

Post by BigCryo »

lettergram wrote: post #6
LatteLazy wrote: post #3

If you can put an object into orbit, you can put it into any major (US or other) city within about 45min and no one can intercept it.

I personally see very little risk from North Korea. Put simply, they know they’ll be destroyed if they lash out. They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed. I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. To be clear, completely think their government is beyond horrible. Do not…

Yeah no doubt the global capitalist regime is licking their lips and has been licking their lips for a long time about the opportunity to open up and exploit North Korea... North Koreans want to preserve their community togetherness, which is almost stronger than any other nation in the world

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#32

Post by RobotToaster »

bell-cot wrote: post #18
lettergram wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally see very little risk from North Korea. Put simply, they know they’ll be destroyed if they lash out. They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed. I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. To be clear, completely think their government is beyond horrible. Do not…

> I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. "Giant Evil threatens our motherland!" paranoia is very useful for keeping a closed society's dictatorship in power. Regardless of whether any Great Evil exists. Or has any interest in said motherland. Vs. over the past (say) 50 year…

>"Giant Evil threatens our motherland!"

Sounds a lot like the red terror propaganda you get about China, DPRK and formerly the USSR, from US media.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#33

Post by [deleted] »

lettergram wrote: post #6
LatteLazy wrote: post #3

If you can put an object into orbit, you can put it into any major (US or other) city within about 45min and no one can intercept it.

I personally see very little risk from North Korea. Put simply, they know they’ll be destroyed if they lash out. They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed. I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. To be clear, completely think their government is beyond horrible. Do not…

[deleted]

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#34

Post by htag »

qup wrote: post #11
BillyTheMage wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Screw North Korea and all that, but it seems absolutely wild to me for it to be illegal for a country to launch their own satellites.

What does this even mean? Illegal just means the other team says they can't do it. I can't believe that you're very surprised that our team told their team no. NK is almost universally regarded as a bad actor.

Ideally the law provides equal protections and rights to everyone. International law is much further from this ideal than US National law, and many people are surprised to learn details about international law.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#35

Post by bell-cot »

RobotToaster wrote: post #32
bell-cot wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. "Giant Evil threatens our motherland!" paranoia is very useful for keeping a closed society's dictatorship in power. Regardless of whether any Great Evil exists. Or has any interest in said motherland. Vs. over the past (say) 50 year…

>"Giant Evil threatens our motherland!" Sounds a lot like the red terror propaganda you get about China, DPRK and formerly the USSR, from US media.

Or "al-Queda!" stuff during the Cheney Administration, or ...

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#36

Post by RobotToaster »

jvanderbot wrote: post #15
LatteLazy wrote: post #3

If you can put an object into orbit, you can put it into any major (US or other) city within about 45min and no one can intercept it.

Is it true that a single icbm cannot be intercepted?

I assume shooting it down would potentially scatter debris over Japan.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#38

Post by SiempreViernes »

lettergram wrote: post #6
LatteLazy wrote: post #3

If you can put an object into orbit, you can put it into any major (US or other) city within about 45min and no one can intercept it.

I personally see very little risk from North Korea. Put simply, they know they’ll be destroyed if they lash out. They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed. I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. To be clear, completely think their government is beyond horrible. Do not…

"Fun" fact: both South Korea and North Korea plan on being the first to strike the other in case of a war. I'm sure you can see how that would make them more prone to take the risk.

It's also not enough to have ICBMs, they have already credibly tested those years ago, they want so many ICBMs that the US feels threatened by it (this is what deterrence means in practice), but not so many the US decides it has to do anything about it.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#39

Post by nradov »

josefresco wrote: post #27
BillyTheMage wrote: post #13

"Defense stocks rise" bothers me infinitely more than "North Korea might have a satellite sometime next year"

One man's satellite delivery rocket is another man's ICBM. Ongoing progress in rocket design and experience is more concerning to me than a rise in value of 2 defense stocks.

Well yes and no. While it is technically possible to use a satellite launcher to deliver a nuclear weapon, those technologies have almost completely diverged in most countries. Satellite launch rockets are almost all liquid fueled now in order to maximize payload. Some early ICBMs were also liquid fueled, but that made them less effective as deterrents due to long launch delays. Modern ICBMs are solid fueled: not enough specific impulse to be very useful for orbital launch, but great for sending a warhead on a sub-orbital trajectory with no advance notice. Don't need to waste time with fueling, just turn the keys and it goes.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#40

Post by htag »

LatteLazy wrote: post #19
jvanderbot wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it true that a single icbm cannot be intercepted?

No one really knows. The only time it has been managed was once and that relied on having a tracking device on the ICBM, on it's source, path and target being know before time and on it following the simplest possible trajectory. And that's assuming the Koreans only launch 1, presumably if this thing works in June, they will make more than 1... It's surprising how many systems there are (Russian, French, British, US,…

> It's surprising how many systems there are (Russian, French, British, US, Chinese, Indian etc) and how rarely anyone dares to actually do a public test...

The stakes of getting this wrong are incredibly high. Perhaps all of these systems are simple posturing tools, incapable of providing real protection if called upon. They provide comfort to the population, and doubt in their enemies.

I think it's just as likely that these systems work to some degree, but demonstrating them would provide the enemy with quantifiable data that can use to help circumvent the protection.

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