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North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

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Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#21

Post by ckozlowski »

neom wrote: post #4
jl6 wrote: post #2

Are the orbits of spy satellites agreed with any international institutions (e.g. to avoid collisions) or is it all secret and a free-for-all?

I live in South Korea, according to our media the North filed today with the international maritime organization (UN), why that particular org... I have no clue. SK also said the launch would be illegal and they may shoot it down if they launch it. Doubt they will. Notably China and Russia countered saying it is legal.

Giving notice to the International Maritime Organization is good practice. The reason being is that there's a danger that pieces (or the booster itself) could or will fall into the sea, posing a danger to shipping. For example, in Florida, launches have been delayed when boats stray into the exclusion zone, and the U.S. Coast Guard assists with this.

As for the legality, that's a UN question. Sovereign airspace plays a role, along with whatever UN Security Council resolutions are applicable.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#22

Post by est31 »

jvanderbot wrote: post #15
LatteLazy wrote: post #3

If you can put an object into orbit, you can put it into any major (US or other) city within about 45min and no one can intercept it.

Is it true that a single icbm cannot be intercepted?

Single ICBMs can absolutely be intercepted, but the easiest they are to intercept during the launch phase where they are still accelerating, aka close to the launch site. An ICBM in its final phase of flight that's falling towards some random city... way harder. But yes, the nuclear threat relies on there being multiple ICBMs, with decoy warheads that are also launched so that you never know which one is the real bomb.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#23

Post by neom »

khuey wrote: post #20
neom wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because of the type of rocket they're launching it on. They're using an ICBM that there is an international regulation on.

Any rocket capable of reaching orbit is potentially an ICBM.

NK are specifically prohibited from launching ICBMs under international regulation. Launching them is "illegal". They've test launched a few in the past that were wildly condemned, this is the first time South Korea has threatened to shoot one down, although I'm certain they won't.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#25

Post by scaramanga »

bell-cot wrote: post #18
lettergram wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally see very little risk from North Korea. Put simply, they know they’ll be destroyed if they lash out. They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed. I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. To be clear, completely think their government is beyond horrible. Do not…

> I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. "Giant Evil threatens our motherland!" paranoia is very useful for keeping a closed society's dictatorship in power. Regardless of whether any Great Evil exists. Or has any interest in said motherland. Vs. over the past (say) 50 year…

Definitely. South korea makes great use of it with sweeping and draconian national security laws, torture, spy agencies trying to rig elections, political parties being abolished, internet censorship, etc.

It's just that in the case of south korea the "giant evil" is a country with a military budget comparable to that of the LAPD, which would be "invading" (lol) over the most mountainous and well defended border in human history.

I don't think north korea will shift military budget away from defence as the region is getting more and more dangerous. The "liberal" Moon administration embarked on south koreas largest ever military buildup and Japan is re-arming and, for obvious historical reasons, is very hostile to north korea. Also, I don't think the North Korean government is all that competent.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#26

Post by RobotToaster »

neom wrote: post #23
khuey wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any rocket capable of reaching orbit is potentially an ICBM.

NK are specifically prohibited from launching ICBMs under international regulation. Launching them is "illegal". They've test launched a few in the past that were wildly condemned, this is the first time South Korea has threatened to shoot one down, although I'm certain they won't.

>NK are specifically prohibited from launching ICBMs under international regulation

What regulations specifically? It seems doubtful the DPRK agreed to those regulations?

Edit: I looked it up, it was some random security council resolution, which are usually toothless.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#27

Post by josefresco »

BillyTheMage wrote: post #13

"Defense stocks rise" bothers me infinitely more than "North Korea might have a satellite sometime next year"

One man's satellite delivery rocket is another man's ICBM. Ongoing progress in rocket design and experience is more concerning to me than a rise in value of 2 defense stocks.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#28

Post by scaramanga »

lettergram wrote: post #6
LatteLazy wrote: post #3

If you can put an object into orbit, you can put it into any major (US or other) city within about 45min and no one can intercept it.

I personally see very little risk from North Korea. Put simply, they know they’ll be destroyed if they lash out. They just don’t want to be invaded and deposed. I wouldn’t doubt once they get their ICBM program up if they start improving living standards. They can then adjust their GDP allocation, and reduce their investment in their military. To be clear, completely think their government is beyond horrible. Do not…

Then you agree with all sober analysts.

I mean, they basically agreed to disarmament and implemented it with nothing in return for over a decade. It took Bush tearing up the agreed framework, placing them on the axis of evil, and then the Iraq war (exemplar of what happens to states without a deterrent) for them to really reverse course on that.

Of course, that's all flushed down the toilet of history now, no such deal will be on the table again in our lifetimes.

I wouldn't hold my breath over living standards. But who knows, it's difficult to get an accurate picture of the internal situation there. Hi-res satellite pics of the garden gnomes in King Kim's garden, sure. But reliable human intelligence. Not something that that rapists, murderers and torturers at Guk-Jeong-Won (NIS) have a track record of.

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#29

Post by MisterTea »

jvanderbot wrote: post #15
LatteLazy wrote: post #3

If you can put an object into orbit, you can put it into any major (US or other) city within about 45min and no one can intercept it.

Is it true that a single icbm cannot be intercepted?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exoatmospheric_Kill_Vehicle

Re: North Korea to Launch Military Spy Satellite for Monitoring U.S. Drills

#30

Post by belter »

ckozlowski wrote: post #16
jl6 wrote: post #2

Are the orbits of spy satellites agreed with any international institutions (e.g. to avoid collisions) or is it all secret and a free-for-all?

Yup! Those aspects are covered in the Outer Space treaty. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty Most satellites are registered and their orbital data published. This includes reconnaissance satellites. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Registration_Convention You can find them here: https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/spaceobjectregister/index.htm... If you drill into the submissions from say, the USA, you can look…

The treaty does not require disclosure of all orbital parameters. And spy satellites do not publicly disclose specific orbits, even if they are not difficult to discover.

"China berates US after ‘close encounters’ with Elon Musk satellites - Beijing urges US to act responsibly after two near misses that it says posed serious threat to astronauts’ lives" (2021) - https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/dec/28/china-compla...

See "Online Index of Objects Launched into Outer Space" - https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/osoindex/search-ng.jspx

Most if not all Starlink say "Not registered with the United Nations."

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