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The tiny corp raised $5.1M

geohot.github.io

261–270 of 331 posts

Re: The tiny corp raised $5.1M

#261
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a very happy user of Comma, I think it is reasonable to say the company is going to fail, but that ignores that the product they created is still awesome. Comma is light years better than any built-in driving assist in any non-Tesla car. And it's comparable to Tesla for far less money. The reason the company might fail is because their main thesis, being that car manufacturers would just license the self driving t…

Car manufacturers ended up using Mobileye though...

Comma didn't exist yet.

Re: The tiny corp raised $5.1M

#262
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cruise and Waymo have fully autonomous cars deployed in SF and are scaling up. Is that it? SF only? After billions invested? There is a laundry list of those that tried and failed especially with burning an insurmountable amount of VC money even with billions of their own money. Lyft: Scrapped and sold their self-driving project. [0] Uber: Scrapped their robot-taxi project and sold it off. [1] Zoox: Once valued at…

Anyone can call a Waymo robo-taxi right now in Phoenix and it works really well. It's a modified electric Jaguar. That's a pretty big difference from the others.

Good thing everyone lives in Phoenix and SF XD

Re: The tiny corp raised $5.1M

#263
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's called dunning-kruger, the epidemic syndrome of silicon valley

It's definitely similar, but I think it's _subtly_ different (though it's often found in the same people). Dunning-Kruger is, approximately "I'm good at the thing I do" (by someone who is actually incompetent). What I'm talking about is "That thing that other people are doing is really easy; I'd be good at it" (the thing is not easy, and they would not be good at it). If the person in the latter case actually ends up…

100 years from know, it'll be known as "the musk-trump complex"

Re: The tiny corp raised $5.1M

#264
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AFAIK the "AMDs drivers are bad" meme is outdated. Sure, their AI/ML software is garbage, but the graphics drivers are fine.

I just had my AMD-based machine crash - repeatedly - every time I tried to use Google Maps inside Firefox for longer than a few minutes. I haven't confirmed, but I strongly assume that either their graphics drivers or something Ubuntu does with Wayland are not fine.

Seems like a Wayland problem to me. Under X, AMD drivers have been nothing but rock solid for years.

Re: The tiny corp raised $5.1M

#265
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My opinion of geohot definitely dropped after he started tweeting how easy it would be to fix Twitter, and then he started soliciting free work. He obviously underestimated the difficulty of shipping a feature across web and mobile. Hacking a prototype is trivial. Making it work well for all platforms, fully accessible, and across all supported languages is a bigger hurdle. It just gave me the impression that he thou…

Why is Twitter such a Waterloo for all these obviously accomplished people? It seems like they've been assuming Twitter is the way it is because it was staffed by technically incompetent leftists, and if only they could apply their own get-things-done attitude and "neutral" politics, then the problem would be trivially fixable. Where does this fallacy come from? Is it because of the illusory simplicity of the tweet f…

The wep app itself is easy.... it's everything around the tech that is hard (scaling, regulatory, moderation)

Re: The tiny corp raised $5.1M

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For reference, comma released a new version of openpilot today, and we now sell comma threes. https://blog.comma.ai/092release/

Tres commas: https://youtu.be/2XxwhMcUjYU ?

First thing I thought of too, talk about life imitating art.

I hadn't laughed so hard in a long time.

Re: The tiny corp raised $5.1M

#267
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's called dunning-kruger, the epidemic syndrome of silicon valley

It's definitely similar, but I think it's _subtly_ different (though it's often found in the same people). Dunning-Kruger is, approximately "I'm good at the thing I do" (by someone who is actually incompetent). What I'm talking about is "That thing that other people are doing is really easy; I'd be good at it" (the thing is not easy, and they would not be good at it). If the person in the latter case actually ends up…

> Dunning-Kruger is, approximately “I’m good at the thing I do” (by someone who is actually incompetent).

Nope, but I can overlook because DK is misunderstood this way by almost everyone, and the authors have caused & encouraged the misunderstanding.

Dunning and Kruger didn’t test anyone who’s actually incompetent at all! The use of that word in the paper is so hyperbolic and misleading it should have been rejected on those grounds alone. They tested only Cornell undergrads. They didn’t check whether people were good at what they do, they only checked how well people could estimate the skill of others around them. The participants had to rank themselves, and the whole mysterious question in the paper is why the ranking wasn’t perfect. (And is that a mystery, really?) It is hypothesized that DK measured nothing more than a statistical case of regression to the mean, which is well explained by having to guess how good others are: https://www.talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-...

Contrary to popular belief, DK did not demonstrate that people wildly overestimate their abilities. The primary data in the paper shows a positive correllation between self-rank and skill. There’s no reversal like most people seem to think. Furthermore, they only tested very simple skills at and least one of them was completely subjective (ability to get a joke.) Other papers have shown that no such effect occurs when it comes to complex subjects like engineering and law; people are generally quite good at knowing they didn’t major in a subject.

Re: The tiny corp raised $5.1M

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a certain type of person, particularly common in tech, who thinks this way about _everything_; "oh, that's way easier than what I do, how hard could it be". A kind of reverse impostor syndrome. See the cryptocurrency space; it's more or less been 15 years worth of crypto people accidentally repeating all the failures of conventional finance from the last couple of centuries, because, after all, how ha…

https://xkcd.com/793/

Perfectly describes your non-engineer neighbor or best friend when he encounters an idea he’s never heard of before.

Re: The tiny corp raised $5.1M

#269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Car manufacturers ended up using Mobileye though...

Comma didn't exist yet.

No, they are recently choosing to go with Mobileye too. For example: Porsche announces collaboration with Mobileye from a couple of weeks ago:

https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2023/company/porsche-mobiley...

Re: The tiny corp raised $5.1M

#270
post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a certain type of person, particularly common in tech, who thinks this way about _everything_; "oh, that's way easier than what I do, how hard could it be". A kind of reverse impostor syndrome. See the cryptocurrency space; it's more or less been 15 years worth of crypto people accidentally repeating all the failures of conventional finance from the last couple of centuries, because, after all, how ha…

it's called dunning-kruger, the epidemic syndrome of silicon valley

Meaning people in SV are subject to the same cognitive biases as everyone? Knowing how to say Dunning-Kruger doesn’t exempt one from it’s effects, right? The paper didn’t show less skilled people estimating their abilities to be higher than skilled people, it only showed a self eval / skill curve that has a slope less than 1.
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