This seems pretty reasonable and matches my suspicions. It is not hard for me to believe that CUDA has a lot of momentum behind it, not just in users, but in optimization and development. And thanks, I'll look more at Octo. As for Modular, aren't they only CPU right now? I'm not impressed by their results, as their edge isn't strong over PyTorch, especially scaling. A big reason this is surprising to me is simply how much faster numpy functions are than torch. Like just speed test np.sqrt(np.random.random(256, 1024)) vs torch.sqrt(torch.random(256, 1024)). Hell, np.sqrt(x) is also a lot slower than math.sqrt(x). It just seems like there's a lot of availability for optimization, but I'm sure there are costs.
When we're presented with problems where the two potential answers are "it's a lot harder than it looks" and "the people working on it are idiots" I tend to lean towards the former. But hey, when it is the latter there's usually a good market opportunity. Just I've found that domain expertise is seeing the nuance that you miss when looking at 10k ft.