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Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

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Re: Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

#71

Post by listenallyall »

LapsangGuzzler wrote: post #13

The real problem that author doesn’t call out is that at the end of the day, the people in charge don’t get hurt from these irresponsible boom and bust hiring practices. These companies knew the growth wouldn’t last, nothing lasts forever. They all maintain control while the little people suffer. The dream is to become insulated from the economic storms like they are.

Not sure I'd characterize ex-FAANG employees, who are still likelier to get future job opportunities than people who loyally stuck it out at No-name Software Co in Des Moines, and who probably made 200k+ for a while, "little people".

Re: Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

#72

Post by samsari »

listenallyall wrote: post #71
LapsangGuzzler wrote: post #13

The real problem that author doesn’t call out is that at the end of the day, the people in charge don’t get hurt from these irresponsible boom and bust hiring practices. These companies knew the growth wouldn’t last, nothing lasts forever. They all maintain control while the little people suffer. The dream is to become insulated from the economic storms like they are.

Not sure I'd characterize ex-FAANG employees, who are still likelier to get future job opportunities than people who loyally stuck it out at No-name Software Co in Des Moines, and who probably made 200k+ for a while, "little people".

You are doing their job for them. A worker with slightly better prospects than others is still just a worker and ultimately still in the same precarious situation as they must still seek employment to earn a salary to live.

Re: Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

#73

Post by tayo42 »

Freedom2 wrote: post #52
jgalt212 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. Another way to justify this behavior is that "pessimists don't get promoted" So you're either a growth CEO or a restructuring CEO. Wall Street has no interest in administrator CEOs.

CEOs are definitely something we should reconsider in this day and age. There's something about the kind of fiefdom that they command that I don't really know the term for it - immoral? Unnatural?

You've made me curiously now if there are any like democratic companies.

Re: Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

#74

Post by hardware2win »

tjpnz wrote: post #7

How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? It should be obvious to most, yet the supposed "smartest guys in the room" are the first to stumble through it.

Theres still growth potential as of today.

Re: Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

#75

Post by ElFitz »

listenallyall wrote: post #71
LapsangGuzzler wrote: post #13

The real problem that author doesn’t call out is that at the end of the day, the people in charge don’t get hurt from these irresponsible boom and bust hiring practices. These companies knew the growth wouldn’t last, nothing lasts forever. They all maintain control while the little people suffer. The dream is to become insulated from the economic storms like they are.

Not sure I'd characterize ex-FAANG employees, who are still likelier to get future job opportunities than people who loyally stuck it out at No-name Software Co in Des Moines, and who probably made 200k+ for a while, "little people".

It really depends on what your reference is.

Compared to the average American? No, indeed, you wouldn’t.

Compared to the CEOs and major shareholders of the biggest companies out there? Yes, one could make the argument.

There’s a bigger financial gap between someone with 1 billion, or even 100 million, in the bank and someone making 200k than between someone working at minimum wage and someone making 200k.

Although there are other relevant factors that would be worth taking into consideration when making such comparisons (quality of life and financial security come to mind), most of us actually are very small fry compared to them.

Re: Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

#76

Post by Haga »

Kinrany wrote: post #63
LapsangGuzzler wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why is that better? Because it doesn't create unnecessary suffering for the unfortunate people who find themselves out of a job because some executive over-allocated for a particular role or department. Fundamentally, we want people to still participate in the capitalist system and not reject it because they're constantly treated like cattle.

If a boom-bust cycle creates an economic surplus, then people suffering is an issue of negative externalities and unfair distribution of resources. The solution is to pay people who got laid off, not under-hire.

[dead]

Re: Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

#77

Post by stainforth »

hardware2win wrote: post #74
tjpnz wrote: post #7

How do you achieve infinite growth on a planet with a finite population and resources? It should be obvious to most, yet the supposed "smartest guys in the room" are the first to stumble through it.

Theres still growth potential as of today.

Most people haven't even sold one organ yet, and they could

Re: Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

#78

Post by jabradoodle »

aeternum wrote: post #57
rcme wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A boom/bust cycle is over-hiring to the point that you need to lay people off. You can over-hire or under-hire in moderation.

>You can over-hire or under-hire in moderation. It's unclear whether that would be better. In control theory, underdamped systems are generally preferred as it allows you to reach the desired value rapidly even though you often overshoot. Overdamped systems (IE hire in moderation) can be very slow to respond and often spend the majority of their time in the un-desired regime. It's quite possible that tech over-hiring…

Control theory in sociology proposes no such thing. Your using an engineering term used to describe machines which is largely the point; human capital being as disposable as a cog in a machine.

Re: Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

#79

Post by Thorrez »

gamerDude wrote: post #28

I feel like the author here is not thinking through the opposite. What happens to the CEO if they plan for the market to stagnate and then it doesn't? Then they look like fools as their competitors take market share and then they get replaced. The incentives just aren't designed to plan for decline.

Apple hasn't done layoffs.

Re: Tech companies keep falling for the forever fallacy

#80

Post by ftxbro »

slopbop wrote: post #64
ftxbro wrote: post #33

> "Just the law of large numbers says that eventually you reach all of the people who are likely to be your customers and you stop growing" is that what the law of large numbers means

This stuck out to me too, glad someone else noticed it. Just in case people aren't aware, the law of large numbers is a phenomenon related to repeated random experiments, saying that the incidence rate of any particular event will tend towards the probability of that event. Referencing it in this context is a total non-sequitor.

I think they are using a big brain generalization of the law of large numbers, where it now means any limit involving a stochastic process
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