Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Copilot generates programming code that solves problems, and in most cases the code is correct. It outperforms many junior professional developers. Do you think a human with below average intelligence could do that? Absolutely, it's why Javascript is so popular.
A human with below average intelligence can outperform many junior professional software engineers because of JavaScript? Do you mean a programmer with below average intelligence (for a programmer)? Because I'm having a hard time believing that you actually believe what you wrote. BTW, JavaScript is actually a fairly difficult language to learn and use. Python, BASIC, and even Fortran are much simpler conceptually an…
Meta AI Unleashes Megabyte, a Scalable Model Architecture
31–40 of 213 posts
Re: Meta AI Unleashes Megabyte, a Scalable Model Architecture
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
No they're not. They're superior at specific tests when prompted. But asking for a complete application nearly always fails, when an average human that knows programming should be able to make one that works.
But asking for a complete application nearly always fails, when an average human that knows programming should be able to make one that works. "This talking dog is a dumbass. The risotto recipe he gave me sucked, and the C++ code he wrote is full of security holes. I don't see what all the hype is about." Hint: ML will get better. Humans will not. ("Slow moving target," indeed.) What we're learning is just how many a…
Re: Meta AI Unleashes Megabyte, a Scalable Model Architecture
#33My main argument against the AI doomsayers has so far been that the current scaling laws simply make runaway singularity style scenarios algorithmically impossible (if for each step of improvement you need 10x parameters and 100x training, you quickly run into a brick wall). This is part of why I’m not worried about the current crop of generative AI. I am however both curious and concerned about what the tsunami of t…
Btw, PALM2 has far fewer parameters than V1.
> The largest model in the PaLM 2 family, PaLM 2-L, is significantly smaller than the largest PaLM model but uses more training compute. Our evaluation results show that PaLM 2 models significantly outperform PaLM on a variety of tasks, including natural language generation, translation, and reasoning. These results suggest that model scaling is not the only way to improve performance.
From the leak we know that the large version is 340B parameters, compared to the original 540B parameters. From Table 2 in the document we see that the small version (unknown size) is on par with version 1.
ML typically follows a cycle. Improve, distill, repeat. It is unfortunate that the big labs lead these efforts because many smaller labs try to work on the distill part in parallel (out of necessity) but works get rejected (due to lack of SOTA) or ignored. Like all research, we need to be careful and nuanced in our evaluations. There's a lot of hype and many trying to take advantage of the confusion and sell snake oil. I think AI/ML is and will continue to change our world, but we have to be careful to not let the salesmen dictate the conversations.
Re: Meta AI Unleashes Megabyte, a Scalable Model Architecture
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Think of a human with below average intelligence. Then think of a human genius. LLMs are not AGI. A human with below average intelligence is still a league above a chimpanzee. A chimpanzee will never be able to read, not because "it's too dumb", but because a chimp's brain lacks the actual hardware for reading. The LLM is the chimpanzee. The gap between an LLM and a "human with below average intelligence" is far mo…
> The gap between an LLM and a "human with below average intelligence" is far more than 10x. In which direction? GPT-4 passes the bar exam with a top 10% score. How do you think a human with below average intelligence (or even with average intelligence) would fare? Copilot generates programming code that solves problems, and in most cases the code is correct. It outperforms many junior professional developers. Do you…
I don't understand what rote memorization to pass a test has to do with intelligence. For the record Kim Kardashian passed the bar; I imagine anyone given the proper motivation and time to study could do it, it's not a hard test.
If AGI is a computer passing a test, then AGI was achieved a long time ago. I don't think a human with below average intelligence could multiple 2 very large primes but I don't mistake my calculator for intelligence. A below average intelligence human can drive a car with a couple hours of training, an LLM can't do that (with a far lower power budget as well).
I'm not saying AGI is impossible, but it's clear LLMs are not AGIs; it's not a matter of having a 100x more powerful LLM, just like making an Ape better at sign language won't make them better at abstract reasoning. An Ape's brain fundamentally lacks the mental machinery for higher level things that humans do. It's not a question of not being smart enough. LLMs are simply one component of the human mind.
Re: Meta AI Unleashes Megabyte, a Scalable Model Architecture
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Copilot generates programming code that solves problems, and in most cases the code is correct. It outperforms many junior professional developers. Do you think a human with below average intelligence could do that? Absolutely, it's why Javascript is so popular.
A human with below average intelligence can outperform many junior professional software engineers because of JavaScript? Do you mean a programmer with below average intelligence (for a programmer)? Because I'm having a hard time believing that you actually believe what you wrote. BTW, JavaScript is actually a fairly difficult language to learn and use. Python, BASIC, and even Fortran are much simpler conceptually an…
Re: Meta AI Unleashes Megabyte, a Scalable Model Architecture
#36Great paper. But wow, I really wish everyone would use more easily searchable names for their projects. In 6 months, there’s a high probability I’ll end up googling/ddging “megabyte model” trying to find this paper again.
Re: Meta AI Unleashes Megabyte, a Scalable Model Architecture
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The gap between an LLM and a "human with below average intelligence" is far more than 10x. In which direction? GPT-4 passes the bar exam with a top 10% score. How do you think a human with below average intelligence (or even with average intelligence) would fare? Copilot generates programming code that solves problems, and in most cases the code is correct. It outperforms many junior professional developers. Do you…
> How do you think a human with below average intelligence (or even with average intelligence) would fare? I don't understand what rote memorization to pass a test has to do with intelligence. For the record Kim Kardashian passed the bar; I imagine anyone given the proper motivation and time to study could do it, it's not a hard test. If AGI is a computer passing a test, then AGI was achieved a long time ago. I don't…
AIs couldn't even pass a third-grade reading comprehension exam until about 5 years ago. Computers being able to pass tests designed for humans is a very new thing.
> it's clear LLMs are not AGIs
And the main argument for that is that "it's clear". They're beating lawyers, doctors, and software engineers, but obviously, that's not real intelligence...
Re: Meta AI Unleashes Megabyte, a Scalable Model Architecture
#38My main argument against the AI doomsayers has so far been that the current scaling laws simply make runaway singularity style scenarios algorithmically impossible (if for each step of improvement you need 10x parameters and 100x training, you quickly run into a brick wall). This is part of why I’m not worried about the current crop of generative AI. I am however both curious and concerned about what the tsunami of t…
This suggests the problem is the depth of inference, which is single pass "hot takes" for all language models right now, due to cost of inference and our limited understanding of what makes a model's response high quality.
Yes, you don't need more parameters to increase the depth. You need to iterate, instead. Loop. Imagine programming if looping was not allowed, nor recursion, or not even defining functions and calling them. Everything you write runs at most once during program execution and that's it. This is what an AI model is right now during inference. One big flat, single-pass, directed acyclic graph. And soon it won't be.
Research into Chain of Thought, Tree of Thought reveals this dimension. This means you can take existing models and make them perform much more complex tasks with much better precision, though various ways of letting them iterate. Think of how you'd perform if you always had exactly 5 seconds to answer a question. Now imagine if you have 5 minutes. 5 hours. 5 days. Lo and behold, turns out an AI isn't different in that aspect.
We also need more iterations of training (on the same amount of data), we need larger context windows, and we need new architectures, like Meta's MEGABYTE, for example.
Parameter count and data size could hypothetically have already hit a hard wall (they haven't) and AI will keep exponentially improving regardless. There's too much low hanging fruit and more grows by the nanosecond.
Re: Meta AI Unleashes Megabyte, a Scalable Model Architecture
#39My main argument against the AI doomsayers has so far been that the current scaling laws simply make runaway singularity style scenarios algorithmically impossible (if for each step of improvement you need 10x parameters and 100x training, you quickly run into a brick wall). This is part of why I’m not worried about the current crop of generative AI. I am however both curious and concerned about what the tsunami of t…
I don't buy the idea (with either architecture) that "10x"-type scaling is required for another breakthrough. Think of a human with below average intelligence. Then think of a human genius. Now consider how incredibly similar their brains are, despite the massive performance gap. It's not like one has 10x the number of neurons/synapses/connections etc. of the other. They're both healthy human brains, and you need pow…
I don't think you are givin these "below average" intelligence individuals enough credit. What we consider a genius is the equivalent of a dog show obstacle course. We measure intelligence/genius as whatever is hard for humans and completely ignore what is easy because we fail to see the complexity behind the easy stuff.
Re: Meta AI Unleashes Megabyte, a Scalable Model Architecture
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't buy the idea (with either architecture) that "10x"-type scaling is required for another breakthrough. Think of a human with below average intelligence. Then think of a human genius. Now consider how incredibly similar their brains are, despite the massive performance gap. It's not like one has 10x the number of neurons/synapses/connections etc. of the other. They're both healthy human brains, and you need pow…
> Think of a human with below average intelligence. Then think of a human genius. LLMs are not AGI. A human with below average intelligence is still a league above a chimpanzee. A chimpanzee will never be able to read, not because "it's too dumb", but because a chimp's brain lacks the actual hardware for reading. The LLM is the chimpanzee. The gap between an LLM and a "human with below average intelligence" is far mo…
Now, can and should all structure necessarily come from pure training? Is there a better "seed" structure that can make models more effective? Is there some other bits that are missing that are not in the microstructure but in the way the model is connected to the external world and itself (feedback loops etc)?