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Container shipping has cratered, as ship owners try to avoid unprofitable trips

wsj.com

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Re: Container shipping has cratered, as ship owners try to avoid unprofitable trips

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With all due respect, that appears to be cherry-picking. Why focus on the 5th largest company exclusively? Did the top 4 not have huge profit growth and fit comfortably into your narrative? There's also the accounting profits that may occur due to something other than simple operations, for example, if the company bought long-term fuel futures, they may have been taking an accounting loss every quarter until oil pric…

> Did the top 4 not have hug e profit growth and fit comfortably into your narrative? https://accountable.us/report-top-5-shipping-companies-saw-p... "Fits your narrative" is a relatively aggressive position to take against such a comment.

Seems the gains were short-lived, according to the linked report ("shipping profiteers", yea no narrative there), the market caps from the report (sourced April 1, 2022) vs today, from the same web site. Just 13 months later, most down by about 50%:

  Hapag - 63.7 - 34.9
  Maersk - 54.6 - 28.9
  Cosco - 40.3 - 25.2
  Evergreen - 25.5 - 11.9
  Orient - 18.5 - 9.3
https://companiesmarketcap.com/container-shipping/largest-co...

Re: Container shipping has cratered, as ship owners try to avoid unprofitable trips

#43

> The rates for both trade lanes are hovering around 2019 levels, but fuel and labor expenses are higher now than before the pandemic. Hard to really feel like this is a crisis, since all of the reporting is how there was a brief, glorious period (for the companies) of 10x prices, and the crisis is that the period is ended.

Definitely feels like there should be a "law of headlines" coined to effect of - something must always either be surging catastrophically or plummeting disatrously.

The law of headlines should also mention that they mention events in the future: “Today, we expect the president to meet with xyz and announce what they will do with abc”, building up the thrill, rather than reporting when it’s done and the announcement is made.

Journalists talking about the future. That’s not journalism.

Re: Container shipping has cratered, as ship owners try to avoid unprofitable trips

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking of economic fluid, here's a fun fact: Value of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve in 2007: 0.9 trillion Value of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve in 2022: 9 trillion

I don't really understand what this implies?

Refers to excess liquidity (which may have played a role in inflation but may also have saved the day from the deepest depression)

The anti-liquidists (also gold bugs or digital gold bugs) never came to terms with the fact that the human economy - like the human body - is mostly made out of water.

There is a goldilocks hydration level but its not a simple thing to identify as there are countless other complex things going on.

Re: Container shipping has cratered, as ship owners try to avoid unprofitable trips

#46
post #6

That’s a pretty manipulative graph. Show the pre pandemic spot rates! From the article “ Box-ship operators were among the biggest pandemic winners. Orders for imported goods began to climb in 2020 …” so why doesn’t it show 2020 then?

Yes, seems the rates are exactly back to the same level they had been comfortably been sitting at for years before the pandemic: https://fbx.freightos.com/

Re: Container shipping has cratered, as ship owners try to avoid unprofitable trips

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking of economic fluid, here's a fun fact: Value of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve in 2007: 0.9 trillion Value of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve in 2022: 9 trillion

I don't really understand what this implies?

It's a combination of the federal reserve both having bought lots of assets and also made a lot of money on the assets it's holding. It's a bit weird. The federal reserve made money on the assets it held in the 2008 crisis. (Buy low, sell high!)

Re: Container shipping has cratered, as ship owners try to avoid unprofitable trips

#49
post #19
post #6

That’s a pretty manipulative graph. Show the pre pandemic spot rates! From the article “ Box-ship operators were among the biggest pandemic winners. Orders for imported goods began to climb in 2020 …” so why doesn’t it show 2020 then?

i checked the BDI https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic its exactly at the historical 30 year average. nothing to see here lol

Do you know how that index works? Is it inflation adjusted? (Does it even include price components that would need to be inflation adjusted?)

https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/market-infor... ostensibly has some information on the index, but it's hard to tell.

If it's not inflation adjusted, then being on the 30 year nominal average is actually a substantial decline in real costs over time.

Re: Container shipping has cratered, as ship owners try to avoid unprofitable trips

#50

> The rates for both trade lanes are hovering around 2019 levels, but fuel and labor expenses are higher now than before the pandemic. Hard to really feel like this is a crisis, since all of the reporting is how there was a brief, glorious period (for the companies) of 10x prices, and the crisis is that the period is ended.

Definitely feels like there should be a "law of headlines" coined to effect of - something must always either be surging catastrophically or plummeting disatrously.

Australian media uses the word horror in almost every tragedy story. Sometimes I feel like they need thesaurus’s explained to them.
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