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Venture Predation

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181–190 of 231 posts

Re: Venture Predation

#181
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you have to squint very hard to see VC as dumping. It's why they all follow that common trend of low-price growth hacking and immediately follow up by raising prices.

> It's why they all follow that common trend of low-price growth hacking and immediately follow up by raising prices. The key difference is that startups are rarely selling the same product, to the same people, for different prices at different phases of growth. They're more often selling different products, with different positioning, to different market segments at different times in their growth; where they just h…

This history is a pretty convenient interpretation. MS mad big money on their OEM deals and this is after they were all ready being paid for each IBM machine. They were also 10-15 years old at this point

Re: Venture Predation

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's both because they also weren't paying drivers enough to cover their (actual) costs.

That doesn't make sense. If the drivers were operating at a loss they were subsidizing Uber, not the other way around.

No, these can both be true. Uber can charge users less than they pay the drivers (losing money on rides) while still paying drivers less than the drivers' total costs. Like if I take an Uber somewhere, Uber charges me $10, pays the driver $15, and the driver's actual costs are $20 (gas, wear/tear, whatever.)

Not saying whether or not this actually happened, only that it's mathematically totally possible.

Re: Venture Predation

#184
For academics I think this is fine, the whole job is to look for new extensions of the law. But it shows how very far we are from any kind of basis for "stopping tech."

Gonna be hard to achieve consensus around "raising fares and lowering driver pay" which is the opposite of what Uber did.

"Uber showed that venture predation works. Uber raised around $24 billion from private investors and used it to subsidize cheaper fares for riders and higher pay for drivers. Uber quickly crushed the taxi companies and acquired a dominant share of the combined taxi-and-ridehailing market.27 But it never developed a superior product or cost efficiency. Lyft, other ridehailing startups, and even taxi companies developed similar apps. Uber had to keep up its below-cost pricing to maintain its market share. In each of the three years before its IPO, Uber racked up losses of $3 billion or more.29 Uber reassured investors by explaining that, once it became dominant, it would be able to raise prices and recoup its losses. In its IPO roadshow, Uber’s executives told investors that they expected the company to earn an adjusted profit." ... "We concede that the “millennial lifestyle subsidy” was fun." ...

Then a lot of handwaving. But no victims other than bad high margin businesses. (There's a theoretical driver that doesn't realize the high pay won't last forever and buys a car, but he can sell it no? And he could read the news about his livelihood and learn that his high pay is at risk).

Btw, you can still take taxis. It'll cost more and pre uber they were very surly or wouldn't show when you called them. The only "regulate Uber" consequence will be higher ride costs and lower paid drivers.

Amazon operates on very tight margins in it's retail business. The ideal case is lots of competition, which would lead to uh... very tight margins among competitive firms. Amazon is just smart enough to get ahead of that. And I think their long term goal has been to operate at such a low cost structure that they have a durable advantage in cost. And then to pour back all their capital back into lowering their cost structure.

So why stop them? In order to subsidize the higher cost company, their private jets and sexual harassment lawsuits?

Capital is very easy to get in 2023. We are not in the time when capital is so difficult to get that you'd need a 2 generation family firm just to build a single factory. At that point spending 5 years to crush your competitor might have made sense. But now it's limited to monopoly markets like cable, and cell phone service. And it might indeed be useful to create more competition there.

Unlike Amazon I think Uber isn't likely to be a great business. There is just no cost structure advantage being built. So they'll either operate on low margins forever or they'll raise prices and we'll get competition in the space of a few years. In either case I would not want to hold Uber stock right now.

Re: Venture Predation

#185
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chrome and IE did not have the same business model. If we look back at Netscape vs. IE they both had predatory nonexistent business models.

Netscape was payware in the beginning? Not sure how that's non-existent? Even after they were forced to go free by Microsoft, they were selling servers which are the compliment of browsers.

Did anyone actually pay for Netscape?

Re: Venture Predation

#186
post #5

This is essentially how Carvana has decimated the private used car market in my area. Only instead of low product prices, they offer well-above market value for used cars to private sellers so that Carvana becomes the only source for a car that fits your criteria.

if their theory holds true that means private sellers were massively under negotiating, or that there is a large arbitrage value between when a seller wants to sell and the days on market. ie assume seller is willing to pay $50 a day to have car sold today (and not have to field calls etc). That means selling a car a month faster is worth $1500. Carvana can borrow the $25K car value at ~5% to pay $100 interest to hol…

I sold my old car via CarMax and enjoyed the experience. I'll go back to them once my car gets old enough regardless of potential peanuts I might save theoretically.

Re: Venture Predation

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Threatening to compete harder is anti-competitive?

When China makes threats to dump steel at below cost in the US, politicians call it anti-competitive.

You mean when China does dump steel? Literally subsidized by the government. Thats not really analogous to Amazon.

Re: Venture Predation

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have money because of AWS, which is a fantastic product in an extremely competitive market, competing against players who lose money like GCP and Azure. Amazon.com as a store makes next to nothing as profit. Who cares what he did to some diaper companies. Are consumers paying more or less because of amazon? Much less. They basically run amazon.com for no profit and consumers get fantastic deals and cheaper produ…

> Who cares what he did to some diaper companies. Are consumers paying more or less because of amazon? Much less. They are probably generally paying less but Amazon isn't the surefire low-cost provider on the internet the way they used to be. I don't expect the trend of them raising prices to reverse as they gain market power. > How much would you have to charge for same day delivery for that many products? Could you…

> I don't expect the trend of them raising prices to reverse as they gain market power.

Except their competitors have followed suit with cheaper shipping and online shopping. They are the best, but not a monopoly.

Re: Venture Predation

#189

And don't forget Amazon. They aren't venture backed but they have access to capital at cheaper rates than most countries due to their position as a stock market darling. They use ultra-cheap money and a willingness to run negative margins which they refer to "reinvesting in the business" to bleed competitors dry. Few other companies on the planet have the ability to run negative or break-even margins the way Amazon d…

Quidsi founder Marc Lore sold his next company, Jet.com, to Walmart for $3.3 billion [1]. Both Quidsi and Jet.com were never profitable, meaning Lore was also playing the game of venture predation, so hardly any pity from me. To add, Lore's current startup is a premium food delivery service called Wondery that raised $350 million at at $3.5bn valuation last year [2], and it's not profitable too. None of Lore's compan…

Being a business owner with actual profits from technology by selling a useful product, I can never understand the bizarre emergent properties of our current financial system that lets folks like Marc Lore to exist.

Re: Venture Predation

#190
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have money because of AWS, which is a fantastic product in an extremely competitive market, competing against players who lose money like GCP and Azure. Amazon.com as a store makes next to nothing as profit. Who cares what he did to some diaper companies. Are consumers paying more or less because of amazon? Much less. They basically run amazon.com for no profit and consumers get fantastic deals and cheaper produ…

I care because once Amazon kills all their competitors then they are the only ones selling diapers. And then they can charge 10 bucks per diaper.

Yet here we are in reality where they did kill the diaper competitor and we have MORE retailers shipping diapers at a competitive cost.
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