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Cargo Cult AI

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Re: Cargo Cult AI

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Setting aside the silliness of that definition of magic, there's a huge leap between "I can't explain it" and "It can't be explained". There are plenty of explanations of how LLMs work, by their creators, incidentally.

Yet there are emergent behaviours from these LLMs that are both surprising and not immediately understood. [1][2][3] Everyone has theories, of course, but still pretty "magic" considering these behaviours weren't theorised in papers prior to observation. 1 - https://www.jasonwei.net/blog/emergence 2 - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.07682.pdf 3 - https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-unpredictable-abilities-e...

Don't cite stuff you didn't read or understand.

[1] Is a summary of [2], by one of its authors, not a separate source.

[2] Defines "emergent behaviors" in a way that you're clearly misunderstanding (because "emergent behaviors" is an extraordinarily poor way of communicating this--it's partly the fault of the researchers who chose this ambiguous language). All it's saying is that bigger models can do things that smaller models can't, which should be surprising to no one. It's NOT saying that the capabilities are anything more than the sum of the input data.

[3] Is written by a journalist, not an AI researcher, and so it's limited by the things the journalist is excited about. The journalist, for example, downplays sections like, "The other, less sensational possibility, she said, is that what appears to be emergent may instead be the culmination of an internal, statistics-driven process that works through chain-of-thought-type reasoning. Large LLMs may simply be learning heuristics that are out of reach for those with fewer parameters or lower-quality data." If you're going to try to gather things from journalists rather than subject matter experts, you need to understand how journalists work, and how subject matter experts work, and look for paragraphs like that to understand what's actually happening.

Re: Cargo Cult AI

#122
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ANNs in the 90s were nothing like this. They were not even like this a few years ago. And neither were HMMs. There is an emergent human quality to them because they have approached our abilities; the comparison is tenable, whereas before it was not.

Scale and topology. That's the difference between ANNs of the 90s and 00s and today. They're still based on the same fundamental principles and doing (modulo scale) the same fundamental things: classification, prediction, generation. It is not magic, it has never been magic.

Scale and topology also differentiates all living creatures. In fact, our topologies are more similar than that of various neural networks, due to evolution. "Classification, prediction, generation" encapsulates everything we do too. So I guess we are not magical either.

Re: Cargo Cult AI

#123
post #74

There’s too much focus on AGI. Language models do not emulate human minds - they are models of language. The emergent behavior from these models are only a side effect of their main training task, which is to build a model of all meaningful sequences of words. We then use RFHL to bias the model toward a small area of the language latent space which conforms to our idea of intelligent behavior. Humans (a GI) have zero…

> zero ability to do language modeling

If I am reading this correctly; then who invented/discovered attention networks ?

Re: Cargo Cult AI

#124
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So....like a person?

The difference to a person is that most (though not all) people actually have an understanding if they know something, if they guess something, if they are making something up, or if they are outright lying. Which is about the first thing you train during a scientific education. And in an honest interaction, they will tell you. ChatGPT etc. does not. So basically it acts like a pathological liar (who happen to be rig…

Animals (including humans) predict experiences, while language models only predict text. Text is not very closely linked to reality, while experiences are. So it is not surprising that we (humans) have a better sense of what we know than language models.

Re: Cargo Cult AI

#125
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scale and topology. That's the difference between ANNs of the 90s and 00s and today. They're still based on the same fundamental principles and doing (modulo scale) the same fundamental things: classification, prediction, generation. It is not magic, it has never been magic.

Scale and topology also differentiates all living creatures. In fact, our topologies are more similar than that of various neural networks, due to evolution. "Classification, prediction, generation" encapsulates everything we do too. So I guess we are not magical either.

> So I guess we are not magical either.

We aren't, and I haven't said otherwise.

Re: Cargo Cult AI

#126
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article was clearly written by someone who hasn't used GPT-4 extensively. "Current methods will not achieve AGI unless fundamental algorithmic innovations are introduced that enable AI to ask and answer questions of why." This is complete nonsense. GPT-4 is already close to being able to do basically everything. All you need is the obvious improvements - better prompts, multi-shotting, bigger context, and access…

This claim does not make sense, transformer networks in my limited experience are limited in there learning ability (fine tuning), furthermore there planning abilities are non-existent.

> furthermore there planning abilities are non-existent.

Have you even tried to ask it to plan things out? It can plan things out.

In fact, just asking it to plan things out has shown significant benchmark improvements for general questions: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.04091.pdf

Re: Cargo Cult AI

#127
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scale and topology also differentiates all living creatures. In fact, our topologies are more similar than that of various neural networks, due to evolution. "Classification, prediction, generation" encapsulates everything we do too. So I guess we are not magical either.

> So I guess we are not magical either. We aren't, and I haven't said otherwise.

We have a different understanding of magic. Say if someone pressed a button and a human-like thing emerged out of a machine, I would call that pretty magical. Even if it was DNA-based, which we "understand", or ran an ML model, which we "understand". This is something that never come close to being done. Yet I think you would not find it magical.

Einstein found wonder in the simplicity of a circle. What do you find magical?

Re: Cargo Cult AI

#128
post #123
post #74

There’s too much focus on AGI. Language models do not emulate human minds - they are models of language. The emergent behavior from these models are only a side effect of their main training task, which is to build a model of all meaningful sequences of words. We then use RFHL to bias the model toward a small area of the language latent space which conforms to our idea of intelligent behavior. Humans (a GI) have zero…

> zero ability to do language modeling If I am reading this correctly; then who invented/discovered attention networks ?

The human being, who instructed the computer to use it to do the language modeling? What does attention have to do, exclusively, with language modeling?

Re: Cargo Cult AI

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet there are emergent behaviours from these LLMs that are both surprising and not immediately understood. [1][2][3] Everyone has theories, of course, but still pretty "magic" considering these behaviours weren't theorised in papers prior to observation. 1 - https://www.jasonwei.net/blog/emergence 2 - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.07682.pdf 3 - https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-unpredictable-abilities-e...

Don't cite stuff you didn't read or understand. [1] Is a summary of [2], by one of its authors, not a separate source. [2] Defines "emergent behaviors" in a way that you're clearly misunderstanding (because "emergent behaviors" is an extraordinarily poor way of communicating this--it's partly the fault of the researchers who chose this ambiguous language). All it's saying is that bigger models can do things that smal…

> [1] Is a summary of [2], by one of its authors, not a separate source.

Yes. Your point? I included both because I found them both interesting. The paper is the source, the 137 emergent behaviours page is one of the authors continuing the work, and [3] is a journalist talking about this, so I included it as it's a unique perspective.

I used the word "emergent" because that's what the SME used when describing this. From 5.1 in the paper linked:

> Although there are dozens of examples of emergent abilities, there are currently few compelling explanations for why such abilities emerge in the way they do.

You say this "should be surprising to no one", yet the authors disagree.

Additionally, in the GPT-4 system card - "Emergent" appears 15 times, specificly section 2.9 is interesting https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf So it's not just a word used callously by one group of researchers at Google.

Re: Cargo Cult AI

#130
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So I guess we are not magical either. We aren't, and I haven't said otherwise.

We have a different understanding of magic. Say if someone pressed a button and a human-like thing emerged out of a machine, I would call that pretty magical. Even if it was DNA-based, which we "understand", or ran an ML model, which we "understand". This is something that never come close to being done. Yet I think you would not find it magical. Einstein found wonder in the simplicity of a circle. What do you find m…

You initially wrote:

> Magic is that which can not be explained.

You have now redefined what you mean by "magic" as "that which inspires wonder". Changing definitions after a series of comments is a pretty poor way to have a discussion.

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