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A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

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Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#21

Post by cs702 »

adversaryIdiot wrote: post #10
cs702 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If society doesn't find a way to work through these issues before they turn into a crisis, we're bound to see (a) a wave of building bankruptcies, (b) a wave of small-business failures, (c) a wave of regional bank failures, (d) a wave of regional tax-collection holes, (e) significant stock and debt market losses for pensions, endowments, 401(k) plans, individuals, etc., and (f) higher local taxes for everyone, includ…

We need to stop propping up the economy and let the natural cycles take hold.

When you say "let the natural cycles take hold," do you mean in the way Western governments used to before the Great Depression, say during the 19th and early 20th centuries? Do you realize how horrific the panics of 1818-19, 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857, 1866, 1869, 1873, 1884, 1893, 1896, 1907, 1914 were, in both the US and Europe? And after all those horrific panics, the old systems led to the Great Depression, 1929-1939. Is that what you mean?

To the extent economists today recommend propping things up, it's only because they believe the alternatives are much worse. Judging by the historical record, I'd say they're right to focus on minimizing damage, akin to doctors with their Hippocratic oath.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#22

Post by JohnFen »

cs702 wrote: post #9
x86x87 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is going to sound rough, but who gives a fuck? How is it my obligation to pay money and waste my time sitting in traffic to prop up commercial real estate? Or banks? Local governments... Oh, poor local governments! The future is now and the pandemic showed that it's feasible to do a lot of the work remotely. Companies that jump on it will thrive, the ones that do not will slowly sink.

If society doesn't find a way to work through these issues before they turn into a crisis, we're bound to see (a) a wave of building bankruptcies, (b) a wave of small-business failures, (c) a wave of regional bank failures, (d) a wave of regional tax-collection holes, (e) significant stock and debt market losses for pensions, endowments, 401(k) plans, individuals, etc., and (f) higher local taxes for everyone, includ…

> If society doesn't find a way to work through these issues before they turn into a crisis

True, but the solution shouldn't be to return to the way things were before.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#23

Post by comte7092 »

andrewdubinsky wrote: post #12
andrei_says_ wrote: post #3

How does the “economy” measure the billions of hours that are no longer wasted in commuting? The $millions not wasted on gas? The decrease in pollution? The increased quality of life of millions of remote workers who spend the extra hours working out, doing yoga, preparing healthy meals or spending a bit more time with family? Or, you know, working a bit longer for their employer? If landlords’ profit is the only mea…

This is prepping the ground for a major bailout of commercial real estate because of its moribund effect on the economy. Mostly just starting the chant for bailing out the really, really wealthy and those who benefit from CRE. (City governments, insurance companies, mega corps, and commercial banks). This is not a public outcry, but watch how they do it by creating a story then an echo chamber, making it part of the…

Exactly, this isn’t about the economy, it’s about lobbying and PR for particular private interests (though there are effects on the broader economy)

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#24

Post by dgfitz »

cs702 wrote: post #20
EricE wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Society" can't solve anything. The vast majority of our problems are from people trying to solve crap from a top-down perspective - and failing. As others point out just let the markets rebalance. Building bankruptcies were always going to happen - even before the virus many urban areas had out of control office building. I was in the metro DC area for 20 years there were buildings never occupied along the Dulles te…

When you say "let the markets rebalance," do you mean in the way Western governments used to before the Great Depression, say during the 19th and early 20th centuries? Do you realize how horrific the panics of 1818-19, 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857, 1866, 1869, 1873, 1884, 1893, 1896, 1907, 1914 were, in both the US and Europe? And after all those horrific panics, the old systems led to the Great Depression, 1929-1939. Is t…

> ... it's only because they believe the alternatives are much worse.

Who is "they"? Surely you're not suggesting that every economist alive today shares the same belief

Surely you're not suggesting the health of economy runs on the beliefs of cherry-picked economists.

2008 was a crisis you conveniently left off your list, also 2020. Bailing out people who make bad decisions and throwing insane amounts of money at people and businesses isn't the answer.

Where were these economists in 2008 and 2020? Have they changed their opinion since then? Do you know what their opinions even were?

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#25

Post by tonyedgecombe »

algem wrote: post #6
cs702 wrote: post #2

It's not "becoming" a major risk. It already is a major risk: * As long-term office leases expire, more tenants are giving notice of non-renewal, because they don't need as much space anymore. * Many office buildings cannot fulfill their monthly debt service obligations if tenant collections drop below ~80% leased, give or take, at the old $/sqft. * Many regional banks are loaded up with loans to office buildings lik…

converting these buildings to homes would solve a lot these issues. Local business can’t survive from locals? What about the inverse of the increased economic activity in the community these workers live in instead of commute to? There has to be solutions that work for everyone besides forcing everyone back to office.

We've been doing that in the UK and it hasn't gone well. Office buildings make poor homes. Better to tear them down and build something more suitable.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#26

Post by xkcd-sucks »

1st Lt. Milo Minderbinder: Yossarian, I want you to do something for me. [removes item from small bag] I want to serve this to the men. Taste it and let me know what you think.

[Yossarian takes a bite]

Yossarian: What is it?

1st Lt. Milo Minderbinder: Chocolate-covered cotton.

Yossarian: What are you, crazy?

1st Lt. Milo Minderbinder: No good, huh?

Yossarian: For Christ's sake, you didn't even take the seeds out!

1st Lt. Milo Minderbinder: Is it really that bad?

Yossarian: It's cotton!

1st Lt. Milo Minderbinder: They've got to learn to like it!

Yossarian: Why?

1st Lt. Milo Minderbinder: Look, I saw this great opportunity to corner the market in Egyptian cotton. How was I supposed to know there was going to be a glut? I've got a hundred warehouses stacked with the stuff all over the European theater. I can't get rid of a penny's worth. People eat cotton candy, don't they? Well this stuff is better - it's made out of real cotton.

Yossarian: Milo, people can't eat cotton!

1st Lt. Milo Minderbinder: They've got to - it's for the Syndicate!

Yossarian: It will make them sick! - why don't you try it yourself if you don't believe me?

1st Lt. Milo Minderbinder: I did - and it made me sick.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#28

Post by shrimp_emoji »

cs702 wrote: post #21
adversaryIdiot wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need to stop propping up the economy and let the natural cycles take hold.

When you say "let the natural cycles take hold," do you mean in the way Western governments used to before the Great Depression, say during the 19th and early 20th centuries? Do you realize how horrific the panics of 1818-19, 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857, 1866, 1869, 1873, 1884, 1893, 1896, 1907, 1914 were, in both the US and Europe? And after all those horrific panics, the old systems led to the Great Depression, 1929-193…

Economic engineering to save an economy we want seems good.

Economic engineering to save an economy aligned against our interests doesn't as much.

And you can apply some of that engineering toward easing the transition to a more aligned economy.

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