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A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

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Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#11

How does the “economy” measure the billions of hours that are no longer wasted in commuting? The $millions not wasted on gas? The decrease in pollution? The increased quality of life of millions of remote workers who spend the extra hours working out, doing yoga, preparing healthy meals or spending a bit more time with family? Or, you know, working a bit longer for their employer? If landlords’ profit is the only mea…

all else being equal the economy prefers you spend all that money. As long as there's a lot of surplus money floating around, better to get more of it moving.

Less commuting will eventually equilibrate, one hopes, to: * lower $ and psychological overhead on jobs that used to commute * meaning more jobs and businesses get to exist * wages might go down due to competitive pressure, or might go up, depending on the shape of the landscape * some of the money and saved will be diverted to other activities like the things you listed * or things get worse! who knows! it's path-dependent!

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#12

How does the “economy” measure the billions of hours that are no longer wasted in commuting? The $millions not wasted on gas? The decrease in pollution? The increased quality of life of millions of remote workers who spend the extra hours working out, doing yoga, preparing healthy meals or spending a bit more time with family? Or, you know, working a bit longer for their employer? If landlords’ profit is the only mea…

This is prepping the ground for a major bailout of commercial real estate because of its moribund effect on the economy.

Mostly just starting the chant for bailing out the really, really wealthy and those who benefit from CRE. (City governments, insurance companies, mega corps, and commercial banks).

This is not a public outcry, but watch how they do it by creating a story then an echo chamber, making it part of the "recovery", blah, blah. CRE will get a fat earmark in some recession funding, just watch.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#13

How does the “economy” measure the billions of hours that are no longer wasted in commuting? The $millions not wasted on gas? The decrease in pollution? The increased quality of life of millions of remote workers who spend the extra hours working out, doing yoga, preparing healthy meals or spending a bit more time with family? Or, you know, working a bit longer for their employer? If landlords’ profit is the only mea…

Or the new business popping up where people now are? It's not a zero sum game - but a huge loss for all the 15 minute city cultists.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#14
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If society doesn't find a way to work through these issues before they turn into a crisis, we're bound to see (a) a wave of building bankruptcies, (b) a wave of small-business failures, (c) a wave of regional bank failures, (d) a wave of regional tax-collection holes, (e) significant stock and debt market losses for pensions, endowments, 401(k) plans, individuals, etc., and (f) higher local taxes for everyone, includ…

We need to stop propping up the economy and let the natural cycles take hold.

“Natural”? There’s hardly anything natural about markets let alone the economy unless you believe in god’s hand, of course.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need to stop propping up the economy and let the natural cycles take hold.

“Natural”? There’s hardly anything natural about markets let alone the economy unless you believe in god’s hand, of course.

Is there really anything substantive in arguing over the terminology?

I'm fairly certain you understand the intention behind his statement. Markets ebb and flow in accordance with forces of supply and demand, and the government pumping liquidity into a market falls naturally into the same metaphorical linguistic space as "cash flows". Money is as liquid as water.

If the motive behind the argument is suspicion that characterizing capitalism as natural is painting it in too positive of a light, then I'd figure that capitalism is as Hobbesian as the jungle.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#16
post #9
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is going to sound rough, but who gives a fuck? How is it my obligation to pay money and waste my time sitting in traffic to prop up commercial real estate? Or banks? Local governments... Oh, poor local governments! The future is now and the pandemic showed that it's feasible to do a lot of the work remotely. Companies that jump on it will thrive, the ones that do not will slowly sink.

If society doesn't find a way to work through these issues before they turn into a crisis, we're bound to see (a) a wave of building bankruptcies, (b) a wave of small-business failures, (c) a wave of regional bank failures, (d) a wave of regional tax-collection holes, (e) significant stock and debt market losses for pensions, endowments, 401(k) plans, individuals, etc., and (f) higher local taxes for everyone, includ…

"Society" can't solve anything. The vast majority of our problems are from people trying to solve crap from a top-down perspective - and failing. As others point out just let the markets rebalance.

Building bankruptcies were always going to happen - even before the virus many urban areas had out of control office building. I was in the metro DC area for 20 years there were buildings never occupied along the Dulles tech corridor - and yet they kept building more. It's a rubber band that has needed to snap for a long time now, and artificially delaying the inevitable yet again isn't going to make the inevitable any more palatable.

Small businesses come and go all the time. Small businesses will die where people no longer are, but new small businesses will sprout up where people now are. And if you truly care about small business you would have railed more against the asymmetric covid restrictions that fostered the largest wealth transfer in human history - it's a collective shame we all share. Amazing that the virus was smart enough to not infect people in big box stores or certain political protests, but freaking lethal in small businesses, schools, churches, etc.

Regional banks participated in the overbuilding - even before covid. Oh well - natural selection at work. What's amazing is that somehow only the big banks get bailouts, not the regionals. It's almost as if consolidation is being government sanctioned.

As for regional tax collection - if those regions were more appealing then people wouldn't be fleeing them and they wouldn't have tax problems. Maybe those regions with new tax collection issues should explore spending less in the first place rather than only trying to increase tax revenue? Actually providing city services and taking care of fundamentals like crime rather than making excuses for or flat out encouraging it?

The stock and market losses are only in one sector. Anyone with a decent investment strategy will be diversified to mitigate one portion of their portfolio taking a hit. If you are all in on real estate that's on you, not all of us.

Also my local taxes are going down due to the tax base increasing from everyone fleeing the sinking cities. Maybe you just need to move to change your tax base - or make your area more attractive so it will expand instead of contract.

Once again, NONE of your concerns justify artificially propping up people who have made piss poor decisions. Indeed, industries continue to make piss poor decisions because they assume someone will be there to bail them out. Screw that. It's time to just let crap fall on the floor, people to learn their lessons and make better decisions in the future. You can't legislate common sense.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#17

How does the “economy” measure the billions of hours that are no longer wasted in commuting? The $millions not wasted on gas? The decrease in pollution? The increased quality of life of millions of remote workers who spend the extra hours working out, doing yoga, preparing healthy meals or spending a bit more time with family? Or, you know, working a bit longer for their employer? If landlords’ profit is the only mea…

Economists are the successor to court-clergymen: interpret arcane texts no one else has the time to read in order to justify the king's actions.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#18
post #9
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is going to sound rough, but who gives a fuck? How is it my obligation to pay money and waste my time sitting in traffic to prop up commercial real estate? Or banks? Local governments... Oh, poor local governments! The future is now and the pandemic showed that it's feasible to do a lot of the work remotely. Companies that jump on it will thrive, the ones that do not will slowly sink.

If society doesn't find a way to work through these issues before they turn into a crisis, we're bound to see (a) a wave of building bankruptcies, (b) a wave of small-business failures, (c) a wave of regional bank failures, (d) a wave of regional tax-collection holes, (e) significant stock and debt market losses for pensions, endowments, 401(k) plans, individuals, etc., and (f) higher local taxes for everyone, includ…

I doubt these property investors were planning to socialise their profits if things had turned out the same way as the last few decades why should their losses be socialised if the assets they bought just fundamentally have less demand now? Will they be stumping up to subsidise workers to work in offices or something?

Make sure noone goes homeless/starves Then let the market decide.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#19
post #6
post #2

It's not "becoming" a major risk. It already is a major risk: * As long-term office leases expire, more tenants are giving notice of non-renewal, because they don't need as much space anymore. * Many office buildings cannot fulfill their monthly debt service obligations if tenant collections drop below ~80% leased, give or take, at the old $/sqft. * Many regional banks are loaded up with loans to office buildings lik…

converting these buildings to homes would solve a lot these issues. Local business can’t survive from locals? What about the inverse of the increased economic activity in the community these workers live in instead of commute to? There has to be solutions that work for everyone besides forcing everyone back to office.

The same people wailing about their commercial real estate investments going south will probably start wailing about their residential investments going south if a glut of residential property was released onto the market from relaxed zoning. The only solution according to the MSM is going to amount to communism for property investors.

Re: A lot of offices are still empty and it's becoming a major risk for the economy

#20
post #16
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If society doesn't find a way to work through these issues before they turn into a crisis, we're bound to see (a) a wave of building bankruptcies, (b) a wave of small-business failures, (c) a wave of regional bank failures, (d) a wave of regional tax-collection holes, (e) significant stock and debt market losses for pensions, endowments, 401(k) plans, individuals, etc., and (f) higher local taxes for everyone, includ…

"Society" can't solve anything. The vast majority of our problems are from people trying to solve crap from a top-down perspective - and failing. As others point out just let the markets rebalance. Building bankruptcies were always going to happen - even before the virus many urban areas had out of control office building. I was in the metro DC area for 20 years there were buildings never occupied along the Dulles te…

When you say "let the markets rebalance," do you mean in the way Western governments used to before the Great Depression, say during the 19th and early 20th centuries? Do you realize how horrific the panics of 1818-19, 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857, 1866, 1869, 1873, 1884, 1893, 1896, 1907, 1914 were, in both the US and Europe? And after all those horrific panics, the old systems led to the Great Depression, 1929-1939. Is that what you mean?

To the extent economists today recommend propping things up, it's only because they believe the alternatives are much worse. Judging by the historical record, I'd say they're right to focus on minimizing damage, akin to doctors with their Hippocratic oath.

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